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Comment by worldsayshi | Hacker News Reader

Are there any key indications for this? Why would it not just stop here (for a while)?

OpenAI showed they can do capability extrapolate/predict (training loss) for the amount of compute they put in [1, see Predictable Scaling section]. This is also in line with earlier findings. Furthermore, there is no evidence at this point that there is an end in sight.

[1]: https://openai.com/research/gpt-4

> OpenAI showed they can do capability extrapolate/predict (training loss) for the amount of compute they put in [1, see Predictable Scaling section]. This is also in line with earlier findings.

That’s interesting if it’s actually true. I think it’s important to keep in mind that it’s also their own marketing materials…

We now have several organizations actively iterating on the same idea: OpenAI, Google, Apple, etc., most of which have more resources at their disposal than most countries do. They are also in fierce competition with each other. There's also a trend line if you look at the rate of progress over the last decade.

Then again, Bill Gates thinks it may have plateaued. He ought to be privy to OpenAI's going-ons. That, and Gemini was underwhelming.

> That, and Gemini was underwhelming.

Gemini Ultra wasn't yet fully released, so I'd like to correct your statement to: Gemini will be underwhelming.

Can you link to where Gates talks about this?

https://indianexpress.com/article/technology/artificial-inte...

> Then again, Bill Gates thinks it may have plateaued

He didn't say AI may have plateaued. He said the OpenAI may have reached the limit of the current design. Very different thing. From your link below:

He anticipates a stagnation in development initially. The billionaire said that, with GPT-4, the company has reached a limit, and he does not feel that GPT-5 will be better than its predecessor.

I don't understand the difference, since why would the company restrict GPT-5 to the current design of GPT-4?

The key indications are capitalism, pace of current development (what was it, yesterday that mj6 dropped?), and active research.

In other words: 1) There's (a lot of) money to be made in making it better. 2) Releases are happening constantly, why would that stop? 3) Lots of recent research still that hasn't been productized and also that opens the door to future improvements.

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