US homelessness up 12% from 2022, hits highest level since 2007
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But there's also another class of homeless we don't see. They have jobs, they might be your coworker or classmate. But they live out of a car or at a homeless shelter.
It's worth keeping that in mind.
Van life is a huge difference from the RVs, who don’t really care about stealth, they just come in, deflate their tires, and call some curb+sidewalk their home, pile up random possessions on the sidewalk to make it impassable. This category is usually drug related, so not hard to notice.
There is also the working poor who become homeless unrelated to drugs, who are living out of their cars. We really should prioritize those cases, which is easy enough to handle with just housing. They don’t need drug addiction treatment, they aren’t going to burn down the home you give them in a few weeks. But all our money is going to the former and not much is prioritized for the latter, which is a huge shame. I think we should hugely prioritize sober shelters and housing that have strict rules, it would really help the working homeless (none of them want to bunk with drug addicts for good reason, which also keeps them from getting help).
By that definition me not living in a mansion overlooking the ocean is also a lifestyle choice. I doubt that many people in cities would live in vans if housing wasn't so unaffordable.
Some people have major debt, medical expenses, family situations etc that drove the original decision. Some people decide to start posting about their car life because why not? But don’t confuse the glitzy social media version of van life for the average experience.
That is if you even notice the stealth campers (to your point). But that’s really the original point - most people don’t notice the car dwelling locals, who spend a lot of their time making sure they aren’t noticed.
People sleeping in cars are also common, and pretty easy to spot since unlike a van, it isn’t common to block out all windows in a car. I’m guessing those are all economic cases.
the reality of "van life" is Walmart parking lots, not Moab or Yosemite
again, if you follow the van life youtubers, many of them have come clean about the reality of it all
many of them also will admit they actually do have a permanent address somewhere out there
Looking at social media influencers and assuming they’re a good representation of the average van liver is like looking at a celebrity and assuming everyone in Hollywood is like them.
This isn't referring to the ones who make social media videos about their lifestyle choices. This is people living in a van because while they've lost housing, they still have a vehicle. The people sleeping in a car at the back of a Walmart parking lot, with a laundry basket beside them on the passenger seat.
I'm curious why you had to say that?
I can't get a regular job for another 12 months until my immigration status is resolved, as my USA SSN won't allow it right now.
I do work 16 hours a day though on a number of projects that I'm trying to start.
New housing units per new person. Dashed line at median. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.png?g=1cYTJ
My parents happened to buy their house in an area that wasnt super desirable and continued to not be super desirable. If they had just invested their down payment in the S&P it would be worth twice what the house is. But as it is, investors seem convinced real estate is a great investment because governments refuse to let people build so prices continue to skyrocket.
In Japan the value of a building reaches $0 after 30 years because they rebuild everything. A building is an inherently depreciating asset, yet my tenement in Boston build in the 1880's continues to go up in value because they cant build shit.
You cannot force people to think that the value of a building is zero just because you want it to be. We have seen new homes further out command very high prices here in the US because of culture and there are a lot that desire the fit and finish of a new home but for the most part the old homes are still desirable and livable. Eventually old homes are rebuilt or remodeled and if they sell at the lowest point (like after a fire) will be sold for land value.
You could probably house 10 times as much people on the same land if you bought 6 storey apartment blocks.
Land is finite, but upzoning it still reduces the cost of a square meter of floor space.
I agree with you that the value of real estate is : building + land.
While the building deprecates, the value of the land is going up. But this can at least be dampened by upzoning and by taxing land value.
Citation needed.
(There is a problem with Prop 13 in California, where old people stay in houses that are way to big for them, removing supply from the marktet. But that's not the "empty apartments" you're referring to)
Others take different approaches. Some are of the view that a unit is not empty so long as it is listed as someone's "primary residence", irrespective of whether they actually sleep there.
That approach will surely encourage the hoarders and wreckers to build more housing.
https://www.epa.gov/sites/default/files/2014-03/documents/lo...
To go further, there are plenty of article around the subject on https://www.strongtowns.org/
Lots of nearby homes are 70+ years old, so it's not like it's just that it's new construction and hasn't encountered maintenance costs yet.
And only one person so far in 150 comments has dared to suggest that the demand side of the equation ought to be dealt with. The political narrative is overwhelmingly powerful and even here crimestop[1] is readily observable.
[1] https://www.goodreads.com/quotes/725596-crimestop-means-the-...
And also "modular home", which is the middle ground between manufactured and conventional.
"Four states accounted for more than half of the nation’s homeless population" (California, New York, Florida and Washington) https://www.usnews.com/news/best-states/articles/states-with...
Not much of a surprise that there are more homeless where a person is more likely to survive winters and summers without shelter.
Excluding people who choose not to sink money into housing, if we consider the demographic where homelessness is not a choice (e.g. mental illness, drug addiction, poverty), what do CA, NY, FL, and WA offer that favours homelessness?
Some factors could be: favourable climate, large cities with more "survival opportunities", food banks, injection sites, and other social services.
Oregon scores high as well.
>" These are the 10 states with the most homeless people, according to the Annual Homeless Assessment Report:
California (171,521)
New York (74,178)
Florida (25,959)
Washington (25,211)
Texas (24,432)
Oregon (17,959)
Massachusetts (15,507)
Arizona (13,553)
Pennsylvania (12,691)
Georgia (10,689)New York City doesn't have a favorable climate.
I think you've reversed cause and effect. The cities with high homeless populations tend to have, indeed need, more services for the homeless.
I agree and I understand that it is complex. People may have ties to a city and in a tough economy may not have means and/or opportunities for work elsewhere. Shelters may close or be unable to take more people. But cities also draw people from the surrounding population.
About NYC... the climate isn't comparable to others in this list --
https://usafacts.org/articles/which-cities-in-the-us-have-th...
-- but NYC isn't as harsh as Minneapolis, for example.
Yes, cities draw people from the surrounding population, but the question is whether they draw homeless people from the surrounding population. Which surrounding areas do you think all the NYC homeless are coming from?
> NYC isn't as harsh as Minneapolis, for example.
So? Minneapolis is colder than most cities in the United States.
There was a study once that said most of Seattle’s homeless were local, but it was self reported and they all reported having been born and raised in pioneer square, so something was off there. I wouldn’t put much faith I those studies.
I know nothing about how it works on the east coast though.
None of this is new. The trope of a hobo jumping a train to San Francisco is as old as movies are. Seattle has always been a destination for those without means looking to survive. The original skid row was in Vancouver, Seattle, Portland, or Spokane depending on who you ask, and that goes back to the late 19th century.
Seattle does not want to be a homeless magnet, but it always has been, and the city is too progressive to cut off its generous social services, and can’t discriminate with them, and they can’t do anything about the weather anyways, so what the heck else can they do?
It has a lot to do with economic conditions: a well funded city (comparatively), plenty of things to steal, and a reluctant acceptance of property crime are all important in making freattle a destination, the same with the other west coast American and Canadian cities.
I've watched my 2 local communities go through this right now. House 10y ago was under 100k. Now is bought by rental firm, and only rented at $2000/mo
And it's also more terrible, that things like the student loan crisis also hits credit, therefore also affecting home ownership. And regardless of paying rental stabily for 5y doesn't matter to a bank and mortgage.
The boomers and older never had to deal with "credit". They did have to prove income. Now, we suffer under 10x worse.
There's so many problems, and they're all tightly intertwined. The result is that simple supply isn't the only fix. Punishing companies for making homes into rentals with exponentiating taxes would help. Requiring banks to accept proof of rental as proof of payment burden would also help. So would reducing/eliminating zoning.
But none of these are palatable to 'The American People' (aka the rich).
Ready Player One talked about 'The Stacks'. And more and more, that seems like what our country is turning towards with our decline.
What do you mean? They had to take out mortgages just the same. And for example in the 70s the mortgage interest was sometimes over 10%
It will literally be possible for the landlords to know which of their tenants are insolvent before many of those tenants know! (An insolvent tenant that has not yet filed for bankruptcy can usually be summarily evicted under contract law, but previously, collecting such evidence of insolvency was time consuming and not cost effective, giving the tenant time to pull out of their tailspin before missing rent payments and filing a bankruptcy petition.)
In practical terms, it means that people just starting out (or starting again) are going to be heavily marginalized and wind up on the streets, group homes, etc. after one of life's many possible adverse events leads to the suspension of their income and depletion of their reserve funds (layoff; family medical issue; automobile accident, etc.) https://youtu.be/56u6g0POvo0
The ability to evict someone before missing rent payments seems absurd. Are you saying this is an element of simple 'contract law' somehow, or that, often, boilerplate leases (contracts) specifically have clauses that allow eviction over insolvency without missing rent payments?
I'm not sure what will happen in the future, but I would be surprised if an AI model estimating a person's insolvency would meet requirements of evidence. Maybe the AI knows the renter, say, used a payday lender twice in the last month and that has a 98% correlation with insolvency in the next three months (making up all these numbers, I have no idea, but it sounds almost believable). I would still be surprised if a judge allowed this to become evidence of insolvency. But of course it depends on the jurisdiction.
And while I’m talking about the regulations we face, let me further enlighten you. By making evictions extremely difficult and time-consuming to obtain, cities like mine have ensured that nobody in a marginal situation will be given a chance. We might like you, like your story, maybe even want to help. It doesn’t take getting screwed very many times before business sense has to take over.
Fwiw, as I’ve mentioned over the years a few times, I’m a liberal… but some of these rules in favor of tenants are fundamentally broken and hurt those they’re supposed to help.
My parents brought me up serving at food kitchens and donating to the homeless even as the recessions of 200x were hitting our family. We weren’t alone in doing that.
Well, you describe pretty much everyone I associate with, so I guess I can't counter your assertion. ;-)
For example I used to looooove hanging out at libraries, that’s until I moved to the US where they are crowded with homeless people.
Whatever we've been doing to solve the shortage of low-income housing in the US is not working. At all.
We must try different approaches, even if they ruffle a lot of feathers.
I don't think we should be locking people up for years because they were minding their own business and being productive members of society and happened to run into the police at the wrong time.
At the same time, it would be nice to do something with people who are fine to beg for money on the street, do nothing productive, and be high on drugs until they die.
Most cities with these problems have resources for people who are willing to get help. Yet we let people refuse that because they'd rather continue doing drugs and not being productive and at the same time ruining all public spaces.
Something needs to change.
Hoping that those people will just change is a bad strategy. Leaving them be is an option - but it's growing less popular.
There is not enough empathy for those who are struggling.
ADUs won’t fix the problem, but I guess it’s something.
there’s a naive, common view that homelessness is primarily about “mental illness” and “drugs” and other potential contributors to homelessness; while those factors exist, the lower the cost of housing, the easier it is for someone on the margin of being housed or being homeless to stay housed. The lower the cost, the easier it is for family, SSDI, Housing Choice Vouchers (HCV, formerly called Section 8), and other income supports to keep a person housed. Intuitively, this makes sense: it’s easier to cover $750 in rent than $2,000 in rent, even for someone with mental illness and drug problems. As the cost of housing goes up, the number of people who fall from the margins of being “housed” to being “homeless” goes concomitantly up. While mental illness and drug abuse are factors, they’re secondary to housing costs, and they’re really red herrings relative to overall housing costs and ongoing housing shortages across America.
The homelessness problem is intractable without zoning reform and the removal of barriers to new housing construction, whether those barriers are height maximums, parking space minimums, or “neighborhood input” or “community input.” Those last two are functionally barriers to building anything, anywhere. We’ve worked on Los Angeles Prop HHH proposals, and, despite that Proposition raising $1.2 billion for housing, not much has materially changed. Why? California makes building anything, anywhere, astonishingly difficult. Until we can increase the supply of housing, we’re going to see homelessness problems.
More drug addiction services are needed before we can really treat this problem. Even putting them up in hotels is incredibly expensive because the damage that has to be repaired.
Does everyone have the right to live in certain popular cities? This is an important moral question I guess, because our housing crisis isn’t evenly distributed.
I don't see why some would have more of a right than others to live in a place on a baseline level and at the same time I don't think it would be right to force people out of their homes just to make it fair to everyone to have a chance to live there.
If a place is desirable, the people who were already there are more likely going to be the ones who have been contributing towards making it a desirable place to live than ones who were not already there.
Seattle is a destination not just for rich techies, but also for the unhoused. Spend any amount of time at the greyhound bus station and this will be obvious, or take a greyhound across country, people get on at prisons with an open bus ticket, if they have no where else to go, they will head toward one of the west coast cities to survive, and who can blame them?
So we have a net influx of professionals with money who want to live in a popular city, and unhoused people who want to live in a city with more generous social services and mild weather so living outside won’t kill them.
On top of that, you have the residents that were already there, feeling like they are being attacked on both sides: rich young professionals pricing them out of the housing market, and poor unhoused neighbors stealing their Amazon packages and pooping on the sidewalk.
So how does building more housing alone get us out of this cycle? The rich professionals will gobble up the new housing, and tell their friends in the Midwest to come move to where the fun is. The unhoused neighbors couldn’t afford that house anyways, but they might be lucky and eventually score a free apartment or tiny home from the various social services in the area. So they move from their camping spot, but someone else has just arrived on a greyhound to take their spot over.
I only think that there's usually a balance to things that sometimes require a lot of time to pass in order to correct.
Anyway, I appreciate all of your responses and your perspective.
In theory sure, if the supply approaches infinity then at some point an additional housing unit has zero value. But these are houses, which in practice are expensive to build so supply will never approach infinity.
Can you name at least one US city where housing used to be expensive and they built so much that it resulted in excess supply and a consequence it is now cheap to live there (and the city continues to thrive - not talking about bankrupt ghost towns)?
As far as I know (but curious to see if I'm wrong) there isn't any case where that point in the curve has been crossed.
The densest area in the country is Manhattan, not known for cheap housing. So if even the densest housing area has not crossed that point in the curve, it's an argument that maybe it's just not possible to do so in practice.
People move to where they can make a decent living, which increasingly means big cities. Saying it’s induced demand makes it sound like it’s insatiable but really it just the ratio of housing to high paying jobs is way out of whack.
This holiday season, family members will be openly bragging about how their home is worth 1.7 million, which they purchased for 300k. The room full of apartment/roommate living student debt loaded will get very quiet.
How about to reduce risk, but reward lucky ownwes, a lot of houses too big for aging boomers, could have incentive payments to sell to HUD to convert into rooming houses, with lockable bedrooms rented separately, and the shared kitchens and bathrooms cleaned by HUD, and quick evictions for any troublesome renters. So more like renting at a YMCA or backpackers' hostel, ideal for the working poor.
The trick it uses is introducing a continuity with the "easier" term. There is no such thing in reality. If you have no income you won't be renting either $1000 nor $10000 apartment despite the former being "easier" to afford. And if you have income you will move to the housing you can afford and won't be hanging under an overpass just to piss off the landlords.
Guess what happens next.
The rate of empty apartments is extremely low. This means that we have a supply shortage, not a pricing problem.
Vienna is a great example.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=41VJudBdYXY (Youtube: Vienna's Radical Idea? Affordable Housing For All)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d6DBKoWbtjE (Youtube: Does Vienna Have the World's Best Council Housing?)
You think those are different things?
If prices go up because demand is high and supply is low, then the way to fix this is by increasing supply.
If you cap the prices, supply will be even lower and you get shortages.
A pricing problem is when you have sufficient supply, but the sellers in the market are colluding to fix high prices. This can be fixed by trust breaking and/or price controls, but this isn't what's happening in real estate. Real estate is an extremely competitive market.
I don't see clothes as investments but I still buy them, same as food. And industries are there to provide and profit over it.
If somehow magically houses stop being "investments" to hoard and rent away, people would still build houses, you know, to live in them.
In the same way, real estate investors are necessary to build apartment buildings.
You are right that a piece of clothing is a depreciating asset. And maybe what you mean is that a house should also be a depreciating asset.
Well, we can make it so by properly taxing the land value.
Maybe that's what you mean, and in this case I'd say we agree!
It’s pretty clear that treating housing as an investment and not as a fundamental right has led us here.
Unless you’re invested in real estate in which case your incentives are to keep the system in place.
We need to limit land value increases.
A land value tax helps with that. Increasing supply by upzoning might help even more.
That's the hard part. I imagine most homeowners are of the idea "I got mine, who cares about anyone else?" We see this line of thought in many parts of politics. Honestly, I'll take a bath on my home value if it means my kids, their friends, my niece, etc. get to secure housing. I don't care. Hell, I might find myself in a hard spot in the future and I don't want housing to be an issue. Housing is so important to one's dignity, ability to work/access some services and safety. There's no reason people should be collecting houses like baseball cards.
No, it's pretty clear that insufficient supply in certain areas has led us here. Treating housing as an investment is just a symptom (it's really unavoidable if the good is scarce).
This conspiracy theory that people who own real estate are limiting supply so their investments go up is not reality. People indirectly want to limit supply because they enjoy their neighborhood the way it is. It turns out what they enjoy about their neighborhood others enjoy about the neighborhood so the price goes up. It doesn't mean that they are overall goal is to increase the value of their house. The evidence is that adding public transport and rezoning to higher densities and commercial use would increase the value of their property a lot but most oppose that because that is not why they bought in the neighborhood.
Most people would prefer a regular house or apartment, given the option.
It's the land under the house that appreciates in value.
If you want to reduce that land value appreciation, here are two good ideas:
Land value taxes help to discourage the hogging of land while encouraging construction, which in turn dampens the price of land.
Removing restrictive zoning polices means that the demand for land is decreased, thus dampening the price of the land.
You can't compare a house and a car in terms of value.
Both require maintenance and both can decay to unusable if left abandoned too long. That much is similar.
But maintaining a car beyond the point where parts are available becomes very expensive since everything becomes a custom job. There are few 100 year old cars running around and those which exist are a labor of love, but from an economic perspective makes no sense. It would be far cheaper to just buy a new car.
This never happens with housing. You can maintain a house indefinitely, through many generations and it never becomes cheaper to buy a whole new house. (Barring some disaster to it, natural or human-induced, of course.)
So a house can't become a depreciating asset. A roof over your head will always have value (that's why this whole discussion exists, everyone agrees there is value to a home) and since that house will last essentially forever, it can't possibly become worthless.
this isn't true. vienna's social housing program is a good example of how this works. and they have cheap median rent in 2023 compared to other cities their size.
And this is putting it mildly.
I also think that the kind of housing that results from Communism isn't very desirable.
Regarding Vienna: They still allow private investment into real estate.
and did i ever say anything against private investment into real estate? no. this black and white thinking is part of the problem.
> I also think that the kind of housing that results from Communism isn't very desirable.
what is undesirable about cheap housing with good urban planning on a decentralized, local level like they did in vienna?
> Until we remove real estate as a form of investment
That’s what I was responding to. I see now that this isn’t your opinion.
In my opinion a lot of the push to put ever more emphasis on “social” issues we have seen lately is to distract the growing number of young voters from economic issues so that these efforts can continue.
Press release: https://www.usich.gov/news-events/news/hud-releases-january-...
Report: https://www.hud.gov/press/press_releases_media_advisories/HU...
What is provided by the city, is only some night shelter, where they can eat, sleep, and wash. The thing they don't get is a psychiatrist and psychological treatment. The Intervention Hostel provides that too.
From my perspective, one of the main problems is that, in general, people are not interested in helping those homeless people. We have problems with gathering money, there is no city support, and we also have higher costs (because of the psychiatrist and psychological treatment). We have quite nice results, but every three months we think about closing it due to lack of funds.
The thing that made me really sad was that when a couple of days ago one of Polish parliament members hit a woman and used a fire extinguisher on a hanukkah menorah, people gathered over $50k in just a couple of hours to support him.
However, when I was in USA a couple of years ago, I have never seen so many homeless people on the streets. This is really worrying and sad.
Mostly posted by OP: https://news.ycombinator.com/from?site=blobstreaming.org (16 out of 22 posts "by safaa1993")
I'm always impressed with these statistics of world richest country.
That we have a homelessness rate of 0.2%?
The US rate is significantly lower than UK/Australia, and much of western Europe: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_sovereign_states_by_ho...
Pretty important seeming, and a little surprising.
So based on this wording the homeless population is higher than its ever been since we started recording it?
And yet, every year, we're still underbuilding relative to our population growth, thus making the problem worse. Unless our population starts to shrink like in Japan or Russia, we're either going to need to build A LOT of new housing or deal with an ever increasing population of homeless people.
Even a slowly shrinking population is probably not enough to fix the problem, because rich people like to buy vacation homes, and we have a lot of rich people. We'd need rapid population decline, like what would happen from some catastrophe. I recommend building homes instead of that.
My comment is being downvoted, could someone please let me know why I am wrong?
It really bothers me that quite a few cities want to address homelessness by shipping them to California on taxpayer dollars and then California is given a hard time for not housing them all. California really needs to be building a database and only serving Californias who have become homeless and helping get the others back to their home states. There is no moral obligation to give somebody who took a bus from Oklahoma for free a home in some of the most expensive cities in the country.
Do people realize how difficult it is for normal person to move across the USA? I did it before, it was expensive and a difficult move. Housing is a problem and it’s sad that moving cross country will continue to become less and less accessible to people who could provide California economy a nice boost
It is a paradox that the world’s richest country has such a high level of homelessness.
I think in 50 years we’ll either view current homelessness and poverty now like we view slavery or that the technoelite will use AI and regulatory capture and further the divide with quarter of country barely surviving.
US compared to its developed peers has lower life expectancy. That surprised me.
So many people refusing care because they can’t afford it and die early.
US is really a country of extremes.
Anything that affects 650k people has more than one cause, but we have mountains of evidence to show us the main cause: housing is too expensive.
We don't build enough housing and the housing we do build is far too expensive. We then give homeowners and real estate developers so many tax breaks, loans, and other incentives such that America is completely addicted to housing-as-investment and the ever-rising price of a roof over one's head.
It makes me ashamed to live here. It makes me ashamed to have a home of my own.
If you're in the Bay Area and you want to help locally, I can personally recommend Larkin Street Youth Services as an excellent organization: https://larkinstreetyouth.org/
If we forcibly institutionalized the homeless, we would have zero homelessness overnight (but would that necessarily be better?). So judging simply from the numbers can be misleading.
However, the trend of homelessness going up 12% year over year is a real issue, though the proper comparison point would probably be 2019 since there has been a lot of government intervention to artificially lower homelessness over the past couple of years (which might be long-term unsustainable given the budget deficits).
1) That people with mental illness cannot keep themselves housed assuming housing is available and affordable.
2) That the seemingly high prevalence of mental illness is a cause of homelessness, rather than a symptom.
I don’t think either of those is entirely true.
[1] https://www.king5.com/article/news/local/homeless/washington...
[2] https://www.huduser.gov/portal/sites/default/files/pdf/2023-...
Homelessness reaches highest reported level in the U.S. in 2023
Dealing with homelessness is a massive money suck with no real return (in the quarter).
Homeless people arent making any money that goes into taxes... or businesses.
Homeless people aren't stimulating the economy.
Laws that apply equally to everyone (like not living on the streets) can be used to make them go elsewhere.
I don't see why they matter at all. We all know "The Economy" is rich peoples' assets, and these people don't matter one bit. And, "The Economy" is doing GREAT!
/I wish this was only sarcasm...
Same goes for states as well. Any state gets inundated, and quality of help goes down.
And a national level plan has no traction. Capitalism itself implicates these people are just lazy and should help themselves. So there's no good (or any) national level plan.
And the business part of the economy (rich people) just want them to be 'away'. The term "Greyhound therapy" is precisely that - rich people/local govts will buy you a ticket to go somewhere else.
In the end, having these people with a home and stable living would ABSOLUTELY help local areas, and reduce massive burdens on services. But again, political will says these failures of the capitalist machine is somehow 100% their fault, and shouldn't be helped.
https://podtail.com/en/podcast/the-ezra-klein-show-1/what-we...
If we had hundreds of billions just laying around for crooked foreign nations, surely we had it for school lunch programs, affordable housing, homeless programs, etc.
From what I heard, the vast majority of what was sent to Ukraine was military surplus.
(That's of course ignoring some pretty serious points you're making more or less implicitly, eg that Americans are suffering in a way comparable to "being shelled by Russians" or that the help is send to encourage their "being crooked" and not, you know, fight back against invading Russians. And you're also basically brushing off the part where the help came in with strings attached in terms of fighting corruption.)
curious what happens to this if there are no proxy wars to sponser?
Ukraine is being attacked by Russia. Ukraine fights for its survival. It has been doing that since 2014, when Russia first attacked Ukraine. It has been doing that without help by the US for 8 years. It will continue to do so, with or without US help.
I do agree that it's kind of fucked up that US military spending is so huge that it can make a major difference to the war in Ukraine with mostly equipment it was going to throw away. But (1) that's not a problem that started in 2022 (2) I think there's a huge hypocrisy in complaining about the fact that this equipment is being sent to Ukraine, and not complaining about the fact that this equipment was bought/built in the first place.
If you want to make a dent in the US military-industrial complex, look at the F-35 program: the budget overrun alone is more than three times the worth of equipment sent to Ukraine (except it was spent in cash).
- US financial commitments 24.964bn €
- Military commitments 43.856bn €
- Humanitarian commitments 2.562bn €
Indeed, it's unbelievable how little we actually sent via pallets (compared to past US wars) v. how much we sent in the form of gift cards for Ukraine to buy US surplus military hardware.
It's a very cost-effective program we should continue not just to defend our allies against a dictator but to keep our own economy cranking as money circulates among US employees and US companies throughout the military supply chain.
Every $ we send to Ukraine is borrowed from future generations. You don’t borrow money to spend it on things that don’t give you an ROI.
Also, to repeat the point with a bit more nuance: most of the money being "sent" doesn't even leave the US economy until it's in the hands of people e.g as wages. US military procurement rules mean that the aid money going to Ukraine for hardware procurement ultimately only goes back to US equipment manufacturers and other US companies in that supply chain.
Tldr: each aid package is largely a gift card to spend at the Made-In-USA gun store.
Citation *massively* needed. There is no evidence that a 3rd world war was mitigated. There is substantial evidence that this war has gone on far longer than it would have if the west had stayed out.
> Also, to repeat the point with a bit more nuance: most of the money being "sent" doesn't even leave the US economy until it's in the hands of people e.g as wages. US military procurement rules mean that the aid money going to Ukraine for hardware procurement ultimately only goes back to US equipment manufacturers and other US companies in that supply chain.
I understand this.
What I do not understand is how making a massive wealth transfer from our children and grandchildren to shareholders of the military-industrial complex is viewed as net-positive economic activity.
Taking out a loan against the future productivity of your children isn't suddenly made okay because you spend that money with other Americans to send guns to someone in another country.
The US dollar thrives because it's backed by the full faith and credit of the United States Government. Which in all practical terms means it's backed by our guns, or more precisely our ability to wage war. Closely allied nations and currencies such as the Euro, the Pound, and the Australian, Canadian, and New Zealand Dollars similarly benefit.
So in immediate terms you may see it as a wealth transfer, in longer timescales opening up our economic horizons (improving economic and political conditions with our allies and opening fronts for investment with new allies) improves our ability to grow GDP, revenue, our tax base, and our ability to do more business in our own currency.
That's pretty much the payoff, if you're looking for one in strictly economic terms.
Net positive for who? It doesn't seem to be a net positive for Ukraine, who have effectively lost an entire generation of young men.
> in longer timescales opening up our economic horizons (improving economic and political conditions with our allies and opening fronts for investment with new allies) improves our ability to grow GDP, revenue, our tax base, and our ability to do more business in our own currency.
This is a wildly nebulous claim. At "longer timescales" I can claim the same thing: indebting future generations to help defend non allies ("new ally" is an interesting word for someone who wasn't an ally until they needed our help) without a clear ROI is a fantastic way to slow future GDP growth by continually increasing the amount of debt we have to service.
Men who laid down their lives to defend their homeland. This isn't a serious counterargument on your part and devalues your standing as a good-faith participant in this exchange.
> This is a wildly nebulous claim
The history of our nation as a world superpower disagrees.
Cheers.
The US not funding school lunch programs, affordable housing, homeless programs is not a problem of lacking resources. It's an ideological decision. The help sent to Ukraine is actually negligible.[1]
There's more than enough money to go around; just look at the US's regular defense budget. This money being pushed to the MIC instead of to citizens in need is a conscious decision.
[0] https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/11/29/ukraine-m...
[1] https://www.ifw-kiel.de/topics/war-against-ukraine/ukraine-s...
Sending money to foreign countries is a false problem.
The problem is that it is an ideological decision not to give money to the poor, the homeless, the needy, the hungry.
The US isn't a socialist country, remember?
[0] https://www.ifw-kiel.de/topics/war-against-ukraine/ukraine-s...
The amount of money required to fix the housing shortage is negligible for a country as rich as the US. But money isn't the problem here, politics is. And no amount of money can fix that.
There’s also a good bit of plain old racism involved but people are in denial about it and insist they’re implying something else.
For example, in a nearby community they were proposing some “starter townhomes” priced at $295K (median home price in the area is 350K). These were not rentals, low income, section 8a - they were new construction townhomes on the lower end of the pricing spectrum. People FREAKED out, and suggested they’d be bought up by gangs and junkies and all sorts of ne’er-do-wells and the project was killed. Someone stood up at a zoning meeting and said “Do you really want someone who lives in one of these as your neighbor? Do you want their kids going to our schools? I sure don’t!” To thunderous applause.
I personally can’t wrap my head around the logic. It’s not like these existing homeowners are rich - in fact the sort of person who scoops up a $300K townhome is probably a young professional with an office job who probably make the same or more as the residents complaining that they’ll bring poverty. It’s nuts!
Even now, $50k is only $350/mo. I doubt there's terribly many gangbangers for whom $350/mo is the cutoff.
They just don't want anything to change (literally "conservative" even if progressive politically) and will make any argument they can find for it.
At some point you can't win by convincing them, you either bribe them or steamroll them.
The bribery is very effective, make the developer build a new library or redo all the streets or something.
This logic is so backwards on behalf of homeowners it’s unreal. Which cities are associated with out of control house prices?
SF, New York, Toronto…
What do these cities have a lot of? Housing. Increasing population density increases the tax base, which increases the level and quality of services which increases property values.
This trend shows no sign of reversal AFAIK
Oh, actually I think the problem is that I would like temporary housing to be built for the homeless, just far away from me. But certain people insist that they let homeless people, with their many varied problems, live up the street from me instead.
One would think that being willing to have temporary housing built somewhat distant from any major cities is a compromise on my part, but my opponents insist on getting everything they want and having homeless people live on the exact same block as me. It's like every other topic where people have zero intention of compromising, e.g. no abortions even in the case of rape, no guns allowed period, etc. etc. The internal debate people use to arrive at a position becomes: How can I best poke my neighbor in the eye and force them to exist in a political reality that they despise, instead of compromising? That is the position I would like to take.
And instead of reaching any sort of compromise that could help solve the problem, we get nothing, a political stalemate where no one wins and everyone loses. Politics in the US is absolute trash.
The longer you are unhoused, the more that you are in a chronic state of danger. Opioids turn that stress response off for a moment and simultaneously make it harder to get out of the situation that caused the problem.
The Opioid addicts don't care about being seen in a way that the invisible homeless do.
The people whose mental health crises are exacerbated by being homeless are more likely to be visible because they have no reserves left. And Fentanyl is a good way to ignore that mental health crisis for a moment.
The drug addiction happens because of the trauma in a vast majority of cases. Poor decisions may compound, but trauma causes rational decisions that also have the negative consequences that compound.
And again, treatment doesn’t even work most of the time, especially if the patient is unwilling. We are just throwing away our money here when we could focus it on the non-addicted homeless instead, get them housed, and prevent them from getting addicted to drugs. Sober housing helps these people a lot, and could prevent the problem from getting worse, because once they start doing drugs, it’s pretty much over.
https://endhomelessness.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/06/Cost-...
It certainly happens that people get addicted to opioids and then their lives fall apart as a result of addiction but it's important to consider how despair itself can lead to addiction.
"If your life had descended to a point where you had to go to the bathroom in an alley and use scrap paper to wipe, or were eating your lunch that you fetched from a trash can on the street in the rain, there's a good chance you would use opioids to numb the pain of that existence, too."
And once you start using some of the most powerfully addictive substances we know, it's not about "flaws of character" or anything else, now you've messed with brain chemistry, in some cases, permanently.
It is really sad that we have equated drug addiction with homelessness. We should really treat them as separate problems, since one is much easier to solve with social resources than the other.
The opposite can also be true of course. That things aren’t as dire as opposition personalities would have you believe.
Looking at the economic numbers, a lot of things look good, or at least, they are not so bad.
Multiple polls asking people how the economy is doing show they think it is doing worse.
Generally Biden supporters push the first point, and Biden detractors push the second. Some of the Biden detractors are Biden voters who want different economic initiatives.
One point is during Covid people got stimulus checks and evictions and student loan payments were frozen. Also interest rates were near zero, FAANGs were hiring like crazy etc.
Now people were hit by inflation and interest rates have shot up. FAANGs haven been laying off, and to some extent Fortune 500 - or at least hiring is frozen. And so on.