The SEC attaches a string to Bitcoin ETFs
finance.yahoo.com
finance.yahoo.com
what kind of "trustable/auditable" public analytics are there on what contributes to the volume of Bitcoin trading from a "how authentic is it" perspective?
Peeling back the onion:
I don't care if exchanges trade back and forth all day to simulate fake demand (volume/exchanges between wallets that aren't actually going to transactions for goods/services aka crypto isn't really being used at $26b/day). That doesn't explain to me the larger question:
Who/what (entities, individuals, at what scale) are purchasing Bitcoin every day/week/month/quarter and holding on to it long enough for it to be up to $44k (166% year to date)
How many individuals are contributing how many dollars and then holding the asset without speculatively turning around and selling it every single day? How much artificial vs non-artificial demand is there? How big of a role is the artificial demand? How is the artificial demand able to prop up (if it exists) $864b (current BTC market cap) worth of demand/assets?
I sure have no idea but there's demand and then there's supply. Supply of newly minted Bitcoins is going down by 50% in four months.
I don't know who's buying all the coins but miners have costs to cover and it's known they exert a lot of pressure by selling part of their mined Bitcoins.
That was Satoshi's great middle finger (I don't care if it's good or not: I see it as masterclass trolling): create something which, unlike, say, the USD, cannot be printed at will.
I feel like this ignores the question "should it be"?
What purpose is it filling for society in its current state?
I find it highly unlikely that 100% of its daily volume ($26b) is treating it as a currency (exchanging it for goods + services).
I don't have the statistics but I'd go as far as to wager less than 50% of its volume is using it as a currency/vehicle for currency/vehicle for utility at all.
Which goes back to the original question: just because it's one of the best performing assets of all time doesn't mean that it should be if you introduce logic + reason + facts around it, right? Who is using it for what currently and at what scale? Are 99.99% of people using it as a vehicle for speculative investment and nothing else? How many dollars are being pumped into it every day (inflows)?
https://www.history.com/news/how-the-beanie-baby-craze-came-...
It’s the greatest convenience-security ratio store of value.
Precious physical things are not convenient.
Fiat currency is not safe. (Don’t bring up consumer use cases. Bitcoin is a store of value, not a currency.)
How? As an average (not doing anonymous things at crypto ATMs around the country, which might have cameras) US customer who wants to use it, you need to give Coinbase (exchange) a ton of banking + social security info, etc. (typical know-your-customer KYC validation flow, I think you even send then your driver's license)?
And you are supposed to file whatever you do crypto wise on your taxes
What happens if you apply this same criteria to, say, the US dollar? Should US dollars go away?
1. https://www.investopedia.com/terms/w/washtrading.asp
2. https://www.forbes.com/sites/javierpaz/2022/08/26/more-than-...
And to the next layer: how effective it is at getting "people" (how many people/how many dollars) to "hold bags" (invest/purchase it/hold-on-for-dear-life)?
How much of Bitcoin's ~160% runup/return this year so far can be attributed to regular Joe's investing their hard earned money into it? How can you quantify what portion/contribution of the probably... billion/trillion shift of money (from USD/EUR/whatever into BTC) it's taking to keep BTC at this $40k+ level?
How is there new demand every day?
That's determined by central banks.
> How is the artificial demand able to prop up $864b worth of demand/assets?
Ask yourself how central banks create money. Here's a hint: Over 90% of global currency is digital.
It sounds like you do care because you want to see “real” demand (unless I’m misinterpreting). This is the same reason wash trading is illegal in the regular markets
And for the price sensitive among them, it will cause more demand on actual crypto.
https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&C...
Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1980994/000143774923...
This practically guarantees the bitcoin market will become extremely liquid for extremely large amounts
over on wallstreetjournal comments it is still common to see out of touch people wonder if anyone’s ever converted their crypto to cash, not knowing how commonplace that is globally for the last 10 years as they’ve only seen negative headlines their entire life
its still common for people to have antiquated views about the level of liquidity in the crypto space. “Good luck cashing out those millions!” cashes out hundreds of millions
this standard would move that to billions very easily in a single transaction near the best bid and ask, with dozens of bitcoin ETFs always doing transactions to match retail order flows in the stock market.
I'm helping a non-tecchie with the technical details (she bought Bitcoin years ago, stored them on a Ledger with the help of someone, has no idea how to safely get them out / how to update her Ledger / etc.) and there's some truth to what you say but...
In the EU at least it can be very difficult to cash out any sizeable amount. 10 K? Sure, fine. 10 millions and more? You go to a private bank and they'll be very interested in helping you out. But you have anywhere from a few hundred Ks to 2 or 3 millions: that's too small of a fry for a private bank and way too scary for people doing KYC/AML at regular consumer banks.
I'm literally talking about banks kicking people out as soon as they mention they have 1 million+ in crypto.
Put it this way: it's easier to cash out hundreds of millions than it is to cash out one million.
It's all people working in banks/finance/funds around me and that subject comes out often. There are people who manage to cash out but there also people having lots of issues. Cashing out a sizeable amount is doable but it can definitely be very complicated. At least in the EU.
P.S: btw I'm talking about ordinary people who did absolutely nothing wrong: they just made an ultra speculative (but legal) investment in Bitcoin and/or shitcoins which, on paper, paid off.
If that happens, you’re cut off. No more insurance, banking, mortgage, nothing.
but Coinbase also services the Eurozone and UK. they also have an OTC desk.
all been easy for over half a decade. you dont mention that word to banks.
Isn't it actively walking towards block-halving and there being a fixed number of coins in circulation (aka walking towards eventual illiquidity)?
if bitcoin becomes more scarce with that large notional demand, it will be fewer bitcoin traded at higher prices
regarding the block-halving issuance schedule, one of the advances bitcoin heralded 15 years ago was being an infinitely divisible asset. so if people want to hoard their bitcoin then smaller and smaller units can trade in that reality, to accommodate larger and larger notional values of fiat to trade.
but this alone goes hand in hand with the purpose of the block halving - thats just a subsidy to spur a parallel economy, as the block reward is intended to be supplanted by the transaction fees to redistribute bitcoin. this is already working successfully, most bitcoin blocks this year have transaction fees greater than the block reward. the same has occurred on the Ethereum network for extended periods of time too.
the SEC’s arbitrary and encumbering standard increases the number of transactions on the bitcoin network too. strengthening the velocity of transactions and therefore its transaction fee economy.
this has come to fruition in every macroeconomic environment now. one can transparently see how bitcoin is hoarded, to me its more interesting that it matches the same distribution of most other asset classes. The M1 in currency is the tiny percentage actively traded and used as cash with merchants, a small percent of the float trades for equities, commodities. no-coiners try to use the same standards to denigrate bitcoin, but functionally bitcoin and crypto do meet their prior bars and surpass them solely due to the pressure.
What?
[1]https://bitinfocharts.com/comparison/bitcoin-fee_to_reward.h...
tl;dr the trend is up with spike periods of transaction fees making up 25 - 45% of the block reward. so with the exact same amount of activity after the next halving it will be 50 - 90%. that's a good indicator of network health and fulfilling its vision of the network sustaining itself after block rewards subside.