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atleastoptimal

Is everything that happened to Japan going to happen to China?

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Given the fact China's GDP is non-transparent and artificially inflated it will be much more spectacular fall

Japan's problems were caused by non-transparency and inflated markets through state-directed investment banks.

Not so much different.

And yet, I’d rather live in Japan—-with all of its state-directed investments—-than the US (if not for language and distance from family). If I didn’t have a kid and was offered a job in Japan, I’d move their tomorrow.

Personally japanese work culture sounds like my personal definition of hell

You'll never be expected to follow the culture in the same way if you're not a native Japanese.

If a company hires you, they're not hiring you to be like everyone else.

American GDP is also not much better. A lot of it is just smoke and mirrors

The main reason for Japans fall from economic dominence was due to pressure from the US governement years ago, China does not have this same unequal power dynamic to worry about.

Pick your poison, as usual, but Patrick Boyle's "How The Japanese Economic Miracle Led to Lost Decades" suggests the fall was entirely of their (Japan's) own making: https://yewtu.be/watch?v=12ddOpt7Hio

He's got plenty of videos on China too.

I don't think it will be the same. Capitalism is all about boom and bust, so China will have booms and busts in the same way; but the problem for Japan was that they kinda hit a ceiling in production capacity, so their bust at the end of last century resulted in a long stagnation, which meant that they were forced to reform and open up to grow again.

China is so big that it's unlikely they'll experience such ceilings anytime soon. They will continue with their shady, protectionist practices, possibly forever.

A better comparison is South Korea and Thailand during the Asian Financial Crisis in 1997. Back then, Thailand and South Korea were roughly comparable.

If China manages the headwinds well, they can pull a South Korea. If not, they'll become a Thailand.

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