Windows Phone is headed for a life of fragmentation | Hacker News Reader

Windows Phone is headed for a life of fragmentation

extremetech.com

46 pointsevo_961 comments

The only reason I haven't brought a Windows Phone is because I am stuck in a contract at the moment. Once that expires I WAS going to get one.

I am not sure any more. I have an iPad and I am used to free system updates. I expect to get IOS updates until it becomes impractical for the specifications of my device to run the next IOS version. Basically, I expect IOS updates for 3-4 years.

I expected the same with my Android phone. Alas.. that didn't happen. I got one update after a year and am still on some outdated version of Android. This is why I won't be getting another Android device.

I figured Windows Phone would be more like the iPad where you get updates for a couple of years. I thought that the cash cow was the app store, not the OS so keeping everyone that can be on the same version of the OS would be very beneficial.

In short.. if WP7 users get left behind it would really put me off getting a Windows Phone 8 phone. What is the point when I will almost certainly be abandoned by the next update.

I don't believe the app store on any platform is a "cash cow". Apple makes the vast majority of their profit selling the device itself, Microsoft charges OEMs a per unit license fee. I suspect the app store, like iTunes, is break even or even perhaps a net negative as far as financials go.

I got constant updates for almost 2 years on my Android phones. Had a Nexus S, now I have a Galaxy Nexus. It is just a matter of choice, you can choose to buy a device that you know to have bad support or to buy the supported by Google line.

Both Google and Apple are equally interested in keeping their devices up to date as long as reasonable. Both release one new device each year. I don't see how ios has an advantage here.

update support does not depend on the operating system, but on the service provider that provides the software on your phone. And it looks more like 2:1 right now, as ASUS has been very dedicated so far to update its tablets as soon as possible.

Not this again. Android devices are 'fragmented' but Android seems to be doing okay as an OS. So are Windows pcs. And Linux PCs. And probably every hardware type up to mainframes.

What is it with this obsession with OS fragmentation? I understand that it makes apps harder to develop/test/support, but we've been dealing with this situation for >20 years on PCs.

Is it just me, or are there a lot of articles criticising Windows Phone right now? I'm happy with my Android phone and have no wish to go to WP, but it (WP) seems like a reasonable OS to me. I wish MSFT/Nokia well with it.

This kind of FUD is disappointing.

I wouldn't say this article is generating FUD - it is pointing out FUD that already exists. One of WP7's selling points over Android was supposed to be consistency of updates. Now it looks like that is falling apart with carriers blocking minor updates and no one on the record about upgrades to Windows Phone 8 (and Microsoft passing up more than one opportunity to confirm upgradeability).

Look, there are plenty of things you can say about Android's update situation, but at least you can get manufacturers on the record saying they will upgrade some devices to ICS. On the Windows Phone side, you can't even get that for the most recently released flagship. That's pretty bad from a support perspective whether or not you care about "fragmentation" (which I'll agree is generally overblown).

My worry about this isn't if the upgrade is going to happen as much as it is about the lack of a definitive yes / no from Microsoft. I'm having a tough time believing at this stage of development that someone inside Microsoft doesn't know. If it was upgradable then a press release would probably increase sales as fears would be eased.

If its not, I really wonder about Nokia and what they are thinking and what the actual state of the Microsoft / Nokia relationship is. If its not upgradeable, then they got the mindset of a lot of other companies that are irritating their customers with a "buy a new phone to upgrade" attitude.

I have a Focus right now, and was considering buying a Lumia, but the wavering has me waiting. On the other hand, there might not be an answer because they might not know. Windows 8 isn't finished, they may be pushing to reach their goals. If it comes down to pushing back the release date or cutting features, the Windows team has always erred on the side of cutting features. They have enterprise customers depending on the set-in-stone release date.

WP8 will be relying on W8 to ship. If W8 is holding them back, they may not yet know if they're going to be able to make the upgrade.

Didn't the Vista release date get delayed by almost a year? Don't get me wrong, I think Microsoft has come a long way since that debacle, but I wouldn't say that they have always erred on the side of cutting features (I would say the opposite).

Vista saw them cutting features (such as a new kernel and new file system). Windows 7 saw them doing the same. They've always erred on that side, but didn't always strictly adhere to it. They did cut features from Vista to make their delayed release date.

Articles like these are such a waste of writing. This is pure speculation as jinushaun has said. I would assume Microsoft has learned their lesson now that they are trying to force updates on IE. Why would they take a polished product like WP7, and abandon it creating a ton of technical problems... My wife absolutely loves her HTC Titan, and I hope she isn't forced to be stuck with an old OS forever.

I upgraded to a Lumia 900 from an iPhone 4 and I'm really liking WP7. I'm looking forward to WP 8 even if I have to buy a new phone to run it.

How do you plan on upgrading this fall, when you're locked into a 2 year contract and you're ineligible for a new device?

You're ineligible to get a device for free. You're always eligible to buy a new one and drop your SIM in.

I will wait until I'm eligible for another phone obviously. Hopefully, by this time some of the kinks will be worked out of the new WP8 software. I'm completely happy with WP7 right now so I don't need an immediate update to WP8. I can wait.

I don't understand the allure of WP7. It's the worst of both worlds. If you want long term updates and a simple interface, plus the biggest mobile app-store with all the latest and hottest apps - get an iPhone.

If you want to pick whatever hardware you want, and through many variations, with software that gives you maximum control over it, especially if you root it - get an Android phone.

What does WP7 offer? Much weaker ecosystem, more expensive applications, less visually appealing games, the hardware is pretty much the same on all the phones (which makes me wonder why they even bother having multiple models), the technology is at least 1 year behind, sometimes 2, and it doesn't even get updates in the long term like the iPhone.

If Nokia didn't happen to make a nicely designed phone, we probably wouldn't even be talking about WP7 at all right now, which also leads me to think what a strategically poor decision Samsung and HTC took when they decided to support WP7. Because Microsoft is now only helping Nokia and Nokia gets all the credit for WP7. If they didn't support WP7 for a year, they could've gotten rid of one of their largest competitors (Nokia) for good by now.

I've developed apps for iPhone, Android, and WP7. While I use and prefer iPhone myself, I find WP7 to be vastly superior to the Android devices I've used. I'd recommend iPhone to people asking me, but for the people who just don't like Apple I'd recommend WP7 over Android.

As for whether or not they give an upgrade to 8 frankly it doesn't matter from a business standpoint. There just aren't enough people with WP7 phones at this point. It's not the same as comparing Android 2.2 when WP7 only has 1% of the smartphone market.

I don't think it is that simple. Yes, there aren't that many people using WP7, but that also means that the user base they do have is mostly a core of diehard fans, evangelists and developers. Pissing them off by not even upgrading your brand-new, heavily-promoted flagship device isn't exactly getting WP8 started off on the right foot now is it?

Oh don't get me wrong I absolutely think they should be upgrading the WP7 phones to WP8. The fragmentation in Android is such a huge pain. Building apps for 2.2 because I have to sucks when 4+ is out. I was just suggesting the magnitude of the problem isn't as big as it is on Android, assuming they don't make a habit of it and WP8 upgrades for a long time.

True, it is less of an issue for developers (especially since they're promising forward compatibility for apps). I'm just saying from the broader perspective of surprising and pissing of core fans, not updating to WP8 probably hurts WP more than the continuing update woes hurt Android (since at least some devices are getting updates and the overall situation isn't a surprise).

If you just think in terms of updates and hardware, WP7 has the worst of both worlds. But think of it in terms of software. But iOS and Android share a very similar UI, while WP7 is very different.

I've never owned a Windows Phone, but from what I've heard from people who have owned them (these are people who have owned iPhones, Android phones, Windows phones, and sometimes Blackberries - they've run the gambit) it is the most intuitive, easy, and fun interface on the market right now.

I'll back you up. I've owned 2 HTC Android handsets and 2 iPhones. I'm currently using a Nokia Lumia 710.

Impression: it's orders of magnitude better. Everything just works - can't find a single bug, it integrates nicely with everything, its fast, it only cost 139 GBP (~$220) on pay as you go (no contract!), it's pleasant to write software (no GC hell like on iOS or painful toolchain like Android), battery life is pretty good for a smartphone, Office comes with it, Fully offline Nokia maps/drive come with it.

As for apps. I genuinely haven't needed any.

It's just awesomeness for the money!

I'm pretty sure the strategy HTC and Samsung were thinking about when deciding to keep supporting WP7 wasn't OS, device or competitor strategy... it was legal strategy. On that front, making a token WP7 effort in order to help avoid an expensive and distracting lawsuit seems to have worked well for them.

I have a Windows Phone that I bought back in November, but I just ordered an HTC One S and will be making my way back to Android. I want to love Windows Phone, I really do. I'm a UI nerd and the WP UI is fantastic. But there are too many little glitches and issues- not to mention the lack of third party support for apps).

Not only that, the support structure is broken. For example, my phone has one particularly annoying bug: the keyboard keeps disappearing when I type. Microsoft saw the problem, and released an update to fix it. But AT&T have decided that they're not going to implement it, so I'm stuck with a buggy phone. With a track record like that, I might not get WP8 even if MS wants me to.

The cellphone providers should have zero involvement in phone updates. It should be like the iPhone- direct from the source. At least with Android it's relatively easy to replace the ROM when the phone stops being supported...

ATT have announced they will release that keyboard bug fix in an update. http://mobile.theverge.com/2012/4/11/2941969/att-planning-wi...

Better than nothing I suppose, but the update was released in January and it's still not here. Insane.

That's what happens when you buy a handset tied to the network. You will get fucked.

In the UK, we can get SIM-free devices which have no network customisation or tie in. They update to the latest WP release fine.

In my case, 139 GBP (~$220) got a Lumia 710 with no contract.

I bought Lumia 900 the day it was put up on sale online, and I'm not pissed about the possibility of not getting an upgrade to WP8. This whole uncertainty on Microsoft's side might be pointing to some issues with running WP8 on the "old" hardware. And you know what - it's OK. I'd rather have an "obsolete" solid phone rather that a bag of hurt in my pocket that I'll get just because it's "latest and greatest". Surely, I'll appreciate having an upgrade path, but its presence or absence is not something that would be deciding reason for me.

Now, if Nokia would not react fast to the connectivity issues they had after launch - that's something that would really upset me. But so far they were very good.

No issues with the 710 and it's a shit load cheaper!

As bad as the Android OS update situation is at least there's a fairly good chance you can root and install a custom ROM if you really want the latest & greatest OS. This would be difficult or impossible with Windows Phone devices. It's still unbelievable to me Apple is the only major player who supports all their devices with software updates for an extended period of time. (not just bug fixes but adding real value post-sale)

> This would be difficult or impossible with Windows Phone devices.

Some WP devices(many Samsung, HTC and Nokia phones) have custom ROMs with the latest updates.

https://www.google.com/search?client=opera&rls=en&q=...

>It's still unbelievable to me Apple is the only major player who supports all their devices with software updates for an extended period of time. (not just bug fixes but adding real value post-sale)

So far Microsoft has been doing that(with NoDo and Mango), so lets wait before jumping to conclusions.

That's not entirely accurate. Google adds tons of value post-sale to Android devices. Most of that value just happens to be through app updates and new apps, not OS updates.

To muddy the waters even further, some of the apps that Google updates (e.g. Market/Play Store, Music, Maps, etc.) are treated as part of the OS on the iOS side of the fence. Moreover, Google, quite understandably, is moving even further in that direction (e.g. Chrome Beta shows even browser updates moving outside of the core OS).

I'll separately add that once you go outside of what Apple considers the OS, they actually do a relatively poor job of supporting older devices with their new apps (e.g. Siri, iPhoto, iMovie, etc.) compared to Google. Often, the iOS hacking community even demonstrates that the barriers involved aren't technical.

Windows Phone does have some custom ROMs available on XDA. Obviously they're not new versions of the software since there's just the one that's available on every device already. But XDA does have some Windows Phone chefs.

I don't think the problem with the Android situation is that users don't get the new OS. The bigger problem (for me at least) is the frustration of being locked into 2.2 unless I want to greatly reduce my market size when writing android apps. My iPhone apps can target 5.0 and get 95% of the market. If I go to 2.3 I lose ~20+ percent of the market. Let's not even consider what you lose by going to 3.0+.

and the fact that 3 isn't current, 4 is. if you develop for the latest and greatest you get what, like 5% of the market.

It really depends on what latest-and-greatest features you want for your app. Google (and a few others) have invested a lot of effort in porting back new Android features with compatibility libraries (e.g. Fragments) so what you want is covered by them, there's little or no compromise. On the other side, Google has also developed a careful reflection / late-binding framework that often makes it straightforward for apps to gracefully degrade their uses of new APIs. That gives developers another way to take advantage of new features while retaining broad compatibility.

This is all speculation.

Given Microsoft's position, wouldn't it be best if they simply announced that the Lumia will be upgradable? If they want to win the "hearts and minds" of people, they should make the extra effort to allay any and all worries.

Aye, the fact that no official announcement has been made is telling, I think. I suspect it's more likely that MS simply doesn't _know_ if it's going to provide a WP7>WP8 upgrade path.

FWIW, WP8 is really quite different from WP7 -- as far as we know, it's based on the Windows 8 kernel, and will presumably have the same/similar Metro/WinRT app stack.

It might just be that the WP7 hardware spec (which is now 2-3 years old) just won't reliably run WP8.

Someone supposedly from MS in the article's comments said there will be an update.

Could be a technical+political battle raging inside.

History shows that backward compatibility guys usually win in MS. I would be really surprised if they decide to NOT support older devices.

>"Your device is forever stuck with Windows Phone 7."

I've got a laptop from 2004 that is stuck with XP and one from 2001 that is stuck with 2000. Both still do the limited tasks for which I use them. Closer to home, I have a Nokia E71 running S60 Feature Pack 1. It too does everything I need it to do when I use it.

Most people aren't gadget freaks. Microsoft has a strong track record of helping consumers avoid upgrading their OS when their hardware won't support it, e.g. Vista, 7, and 8 CP.

Microsoft may have sins, but they are not those of Google or Apple (e.g. Siri).

Question for the crowd:

Can I write Windows Phone 7/8 apps in C/C++?

I have an app, DJPad, which from one codebase I've got running on HP TouchPad, Android, and Playbook (and soon iOS). I would love to add framework support for Windows Phone 7 via an SDL port but everywhere I look I only see .NET/XNA programmability.

No (though I've heard that device manufacturers might be able to).

That being said, one of the other rumors floating around is that this might change for Windows Phone 8.

All this drama over one WP update when this happens every couple of months to millions of Android users.

And doesn't happen to millions of others (particularly those who buy Nexus or other higher-end devices).

In fact, it is entirely possible that there are more ICS devices "in the wild" than there are WP7 devices. If not, there will be soon (with the various upgrades and new devices rolling out).

The fact remains that if it does happen to millions of users, something is terribly wrong.

It's pretty likely that there are more ICS devices than there are WP devices, but then again, they've been in the market for longer and ICS devices represent phones from many handset manufacturers as opposed to just one. It's like comparing browsers which use WebKit to IE alone, it's an apples to oranges comparison that won't tell you much. Besides, I'm not arguing that WP7 is superior, just that the article isn't stating all the facts that it should.

> The fact remains that if it does happen to millions of users, something is terribly wrong.

Not necessarily. Android targets a much wider range of price points than any other smartphone OS (tied with or lower-end than Symbian all the way up to flagship iPhone competitors). Personally, I'm not terribly troubled if the sub-$100 no-contract Android (down to $49.99 last time I checked) that someone bought for prepaid use never gets updated (and there are millions of those). In fact, if someone wants to make that trade-off (explicitly or implicitly) for a dirt-cheap device, why shouldn't they be able to?

That being said, I'm not saying there aren't plenty of examples carriers and manufacturers not making the effort they should. There clearly are (the original Galaxy S is probably the most prominent example of this). I'm just saying that millions of devices not getting updated is not by itself an indication of a problem. To me, the real indication of a problem is that there are too many contract-subsidized and/or higher-end devices not getting reasonable updates (or, in the worst cases, any updates at all).

They're talking about a one-time break in forward (but not backward) compatibility as they consolidate Phone OS into the main Windows 8 code base. Certainly not a "life of fragmentation". If anything this guarantees there won't be fragmentation going forward since phones will be running standard Windows. A consolidated code base where Windows apps run on phones, tablets and desktops is worth the hassle IMHO.

One-time break? Did you forget that no Windows Mobile 6.5 devices got an upgrade to Windows Phone 7? That's starting to look like a pattern.

That's a technical constraint. Totally different ARM architecture, platform and hardware specification!

Um, the developers over at XDA seem to have gotten a solid WP7.5 build working on the HTC HD2. That says to me that there weren't any technical barriers to upgrading at least one WM 6.5 device...

That's not really a typical 6.5 device tbh.

How will the API's change? Small update like going from iOS4 to iOS5?

Your guess is as good as anyone's.

Probably very little change. MS are pretty good with API stability.

I'm using the same .Net APIs as 2002 in a current LOB application.

This reminds of the whole 'MS is killing .NET' articles that were taken for fact a few months ago.

Eg: "Are .NET programmers going extinct?" "Are .NET developers the next buggy whip makers?" http://radar.oreilly.com/2011/06/devwir-net-java-html5.html

There are rumors both ways about whether existing WP7 devices will get WP8:

http://wmpoweruser.com/rumor-windows-phone-8-being-tested-on...

For good or bad, MS is being tightlipped about a lot of things these days, and taking speculation for granted hits the credibility of the article writers.

I really wish people would stop submitting ExtremeTech articles. Their writing is bullshit, their reporting is speculative, and their staff doesn't seem to care about facts or legitimacy. They're the Perez Hilton of tech journalism. They make Gizmodo seem like a bastion of integrity.

"They're the Perez Hilton of tech journalism."

Thank you, good sir. That just made my day. I will have to use that one in the future.

On topic: Fragmentation doesn't always mean the end of the world. A lot of people could not spot the differences between iOS 4 and 5, or Froyo and ICS. As far as development goes, MS has gone on record to say that all WP7 apps will run on WP8. Personally, I'll just wait and see what will come of this before throwing my lot in with the Perez Hiltons of tech journalism.

> I really wish people would stop submitting ExtremeTech articles.

I agree.

There are only a few people submitting ExtremeTech articles.

http://www.hnsearch.com/search#request/all&q=%28extremet...

I actually saw one ExtremeTech article that was submitted by the author. I really would have liked to have a conversation with the author and figure out if it's the editorial staff or the writers who decide what to post and how much they're going to support it with facts.

Unfortunately (fortunately?) the article that was submitted was actually of a decent quality level and I couldn't find anything to disagree with. I didn't want to call out the author to make them speak ill of his/her coworkers, so I've been waiting to see another article submitted by the author of said article, who then also comments on it.

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