Tesla driver who killed 2 people while using autopilot must pay $23,000, no jail
fortune.com
fortune.com
We see this same problem with face recognition software that says an innocent man's face matches a criminal. The cops just accept what the computer says and arrest people because the computer says it's a match.
We can't have the machine do stuff for us unless it's superior to human judgment, or the stakes are much lower than ruining lives.
Keep in mind 125 people are killed on the roads every single day in the US. If all vehicles magically switched to this system overnight and the system only killed 100 people per day, that would be a huge win.
The fact some people will be killed by automated driving systems is not enough to ban them. If it was, we would ban all cars.
The only important statistic is if those systems kill less people than the current state of affairs.
I expect the 125 people who are killed today have a high factor of alcohol being involved, and our society doesn’t take drunk driving lightly. Those drivers would certainly go to jail. Why would phone use be any more accepted if the death rate suddenly dropped to 124, or, as in your hypothetical situation, 100?
So I guess the answer to your questions are yes and yes?
The difference is that machines have no agency. Imagine a scenario where on roads with 100% human driving, the most of the people that are killed are PCP addled people running naked across freeways where they aren't expected to be, but with self driving you have 50% grandmas walking with babies in a stroller across crosswalks. We don't have to say that one life is more valuable than another to come to the conclusion that the latter is worse, all we have to do is acknowledge the pedestrian's portion of the responsibility for the outcome.
With that in mind, your last sentence is false, the aggregate death count is not all that matters, what matters is the situations in which they occur.
Now let's think about the link in this comment. We begin to form the rules of crossing a street around the behaviors of machines. Not unreasonable. But then it's just a small step from there to "you should've known how the machine was going to behave because it's behavior is simple and predictable." We wind up in a situation where we absolve the self driving car of all liability when an accident occurs because the only entity involved with agency was the pedestrian. We do this already with train tracks.
So with that in mind, the machine systems killing less people is not enough, it has to be so good that the only deaths are suicides, unbelievably bad behavior by those killed, or freak accidents so unlikely that they genuinely shock everyone who learns of them. That's the only way to transition from humans to software operating the machines and be able to justify the ruthlessness with which machines operate themselves.
I don't think it's helpful to introduce this scenario that is entirely not true in the real world and therefore doesn't teach us anything. You're saying that a huge number of road deaths are people that were asking for it anyway.
Dozens and dozens of people were killed on the road today who were not drunk, who were not on drugs and were not breaking a single road rule.
This is the reality of the world. Good people are being killed every day by the way things are now.
If we can do anything to reduce that number, we should.
...
Another way I like to think about this is from the ad in Victoria where a guy has to pick which of his family members will be killed on the roads [1]. Obviously none of us want any of our family to be killed, we all choose zero.
Closer to zero is better than not closer to zero.
Current situation: 125 people are killed every single day
Future autonomous situation: 100 people are killed every single day
I don't care who they are, what they were doing or why they were killed.
The details of their deaths are no important. Saving 25 lives per day is clearly the right thing to do.
Hint: Imagine all of these people are your family and friends. Do you want to keep having 125 of them die every day, or only 100? Does it matter if they're being run over as pedestrians or slammed into by drunk drivers or simply sliding off the road on ice? Of course it doesn't, saving 25 of them every day is the only thing that matters.
I think it's clear that if we were talking about saving 125 people 90 years old or older or 100 children, the clear choice is to save the children, from almost any rational point of view. Even just from a societal health or utility standpoint, children are worth more than people that are statistically close to death anyway at a societal level.
If that premise is acceptable, and if we accept that switching to self driving might change the demographics of who dies in accidents, then it's important to quantify not just whether it saves more people or not, but what people, in case that shifts matters.
> Hint: Imagine all of these people are your family and friends. Do you want to keep having 125 of them die every day, or only 100?
I would rather lose both my parents than one of my children. I don't know a single parent that would feel otherwise.
Additionally, there's also the possibility that like adding extra lanes of traffic to a freeway can make traffic jams worse, self driving cars could increase deaths per capita while reducing deaths per trip, by promoting a lot more car travel (by either allowing current non drivers to drive or increasing time current drivers spend in the car).
That assumes that the people currently being killed on the roads are "less valuable" than the people that would be killed on the roads by autonomous systems.
There is no evidence to prove that, it's purely hypothetical.
Im not arguing that autonomous cars will be worse, I'm just arguing there is the possibility for them to be worse in non-obvious ways, and you prior arguments seemed to ignore that. We should not be so blinded by a single metric that we fail to understand what's really going on. To are many cases of that in technological advances, legislative change, and societal shifts, that we aren't aware of until long after the additional damage has been done.
By the time they're widely deployed, autonomous vehicles aren't going to be a little bit safer than the average human driver. They will have to be superior by at least one order of magnitude. As in, the number of deaths per million miles at least 10X lower than the human average.
I think one order of magnitude is the least we should demand. I would consider it a rather low bar. I suspect that it'd need to be more like two orders of magnitude in order to retain sufficient community consent.
So if that's the threshold of acceptability, then we'd be talking about slashing deaths by 90% or possibly even 99%. Either way, autonomous vehicles could kill children exclusively and they'd still be safer around children than human drivers.
So right now we have 125 deaths every single day on the roads in the US. Same today. Same tomorrow. 45,625 every single year. Year after year.
You're saying it would need to be < 12.5 per day to be acceptable, but really we should aim for < ~2 per day.
So that means if we invent some system that reduces the number of deaths PER DAY from 125 down to, let's say, 30, you think we SHOULD NOT implement it, because that's not enough of an improvement?
Let's say that system is the best we can ever make, but we decide to never turn it on, because it's not a whole order of magnitude better. You're choosing to kill an additional 34,675 people per year, because a reduction in deaths from 125 per day down to 30 per day is "not good enough".
But if the best we can do is a 9x improvement of course we should still deploy it. The question is whether society will accept it. I’m not sure it would. I’m not sure it would accept a system that reduced deaths by two orders of magnitude, or 100x.
Imagine for a moment, Tesla fully cracks the FSD nut, and every car on the road is replaced with a self driving Tesla, 100 times safer than humans. “One person is dying at the hands of the pedestrian butcher Elon Musk every single day!” the headlines will cry.
You're absolutely right, but it won't make any difference if the laws are passed.
(It's sad that society is obsessed with politicising everything and everyone. I don't agree with some of Musk's political views, but so what? I never expected to be in perfect alignment with him or anyone else anyway. And it would be the height of arrogance to assume that my views are consistently better than his, rather than a different order of priorities resulting in a different set of trade-offs.)
If indeed it is an order of magnitude less deaths, then it probably doesn't matter if the demographics shift, but we actually have to see that change and know the demographics to actually know that. I'm just saying that we should pay attention, as we should with anything that has the capability to change per-capita figures for adverse actions, as to what is actually happening and not assume.
That said, since we're already seeing an increase in these cars and the use of their autonomous options which match "self-driving" to greater or lesser degrees, I doubt we're going to see a 10x decrease before they are inthe wild, because to some degree they already are.
I just want us to know what that means by looking at as much info as we can rather than a single metric.
I would.
But my main point is that it is a machine pulling the lever or not. Once you deploy such a machine we are all subject to it's cold calculation. We should go the extra mile to make sure the world we live in winds up being better and not just assume less deaths = better outcome.
As I've said elsewhere, I don't expect any autonomous driving system to be anything less than 10X safer than human drivers, or one order of magnitude. And I don't think there could ever be a durable social warrant for autonomous vehicles unless they're at least 100X safer, or two orders of magnitude.[0]
Given a minimum expectation of being 10X safer, and given that drivers don't get to choose the demographics of people who place themselves in harm's way near our roads, it is statistically unfathomable that autonomous vehicles could ever be net more dangerous for any demographic.
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[0] If anything I feel that's too conservative and three orders of magnitude might be closer to the threshold at which societies would tolerate autonomous cars. Road deaths in the USA are in the order of 40,000 annually. Three orders of magnitude still means 40 deaths per year. That's plenty enough to keep the press aroused and erect.
(You may have a point with respect to systems like Supercruise and Tesla FSD, but that’s not the topic of this article.)
Autopilot. This automatically accelerates, decelerates, and steers on roads. This works on all roads with lane markings, not just limited access freeways. It also obeys speed limit signs.
Enhanced autopilot. This is autopilot but will also self drive from on-ramp to off-ramp, changing lanes to pass (and exit the passing lane), taking interchanges to other freeways, and exiting the offramp.
Full self driving beta. This will drive on pretty much any street. Early on it was purely a gimmick that required constant intervention, but lately it’s gotten pretty good. My main complaint is that it drives too conservatively, causing impatient drivers to behave erratically around you. Imagine someone driving as if they're taking a driving test. Because of that I tend to drive manually unless I’m on a freeway.
Really? My understanding is that many new vehicles have lane keep assist and dynamic cruise control, but that they are much more limited than Autopilot. For example, lots of cars have much tighter limits on the curves they will follow. They also don't have the UI that Autopilot has, which shows what cars it detects. This gives more of a sense of full autonomy (although I find it a bit creepy/worrisome when vehicles appear and disappear on the screen for no reason — one would think this would give people pause).
There are definitely more expensive vehicles (Cadillac, Mercedes) that have more robust systems, but my sense is that your typical Toyota, Subaru, etc. isn't close to Autopilot.
Some people argue that Tesla customers think they've been sold autonomy. I can't see how. Tesla goes to pains to make you aware of the $12k you would need to spend to get the system that "self drives". You are painfully aware of the $12k you didn't spend.
Which country? Because study after study shows deterence is weak at best for such crimes.
If the person can't improve, and is caught reckless driving or drunk driving (or worse, killing/hurting someone else), then the 'suspended' sentence transform into a full sentence, to protect other people from the idiot.
This recent blog post was making the rounds based on Washington state data showing the speeding rate _in school zones_ was over 70%, which I think is what you’d find almost anywhere in the United States:
https://www.theurbanist.org/2023/12/12/drivers-are-speeding-...
I assume this is the usual issue where the news looks at the maximum sentence and the legal system uses a standard formula that almost never applies the maximum?
> It was among a series of deadly crashes investigated by the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration that led to this week’s recall.
Assuming the sentence actually is lighter than typical, maybe this is part of why?
I mean, i understand it's the US, but you got to at least remove the driving licence for like 5 years and add a 5-10 year suspended prison time (until his next road infraction, seems a good way to prevent him from killing people by arrogance and negligence again).
• Crashes per mile on each manufacturer's "self-driving" systems
• Crashes per mile on each manufacturer's LKAS (lane keeping assistant) systems
• Crashes per mile on each manufacturer's TACC (traffic aware cruise control)
• Crashes per mile on each manufacturer's regular cruise control
• Crashes per mile under manual control
Break each out by highway, suburban, city, and car model year. Also include whether the crash resulted in injuries and deaths, and whether those deaths were occupants or not.
Then we can actually determine where the problem is, and the scope of it.
Unpopular opinion: there probably isn't a problem? None of these system is going to be perfectly safe, but there's quite a bit of evidence at this point that they're all safer, as actually used (which, yes, includes some misuse) than a human driver is at doing the same task.
No one wants to hear that though, so instead we take "where the problem is" as a prior and continue arguments like this ad nauseum.
Full disclosure: my car is going to drive me to Idaho in the morning.
At the end of the day you either believe or you don't. But if there was an actual problem, we'd know. There are millions of these things on the street now.
It's also absolutely hilarious to me you're assuming I think Autopilot is unsafe.
...counting miles where self-driving was activated including the 5 minutes afterwards — https://www.motortrend.com/news/nhtsa-tesla-autopilot-invest...
(Honi soit qui mal y pense.)
Which component of justice— retribution, incapacitation, deterrence, rehabilitation and reparation [1]—is served by jailing this person?
The only one I see is retribution. Given the families are pursuing damages, the reparation prerogative is better served with him out of jail (and not draining his assets fighting prison time).
[1] https://www.unodc.org/e4j/en/crime-prevention-criminal-justi...
If he was, say, watching a movie on his phone, then he should go to jail to deter others from watching movies on their phones.
Sure. Nobody was murdered.
> clearly 23k is not high enough to stop many people from repeating this crime
That’s not the penalty. It’s a criminal conviction, the fine and probation. I don’t know the terms of the probation, but I assume it means he goes to jail for traffic infractions. Also, he’s going to pay a lot more than $23k given the civil case is ongoing.
Even the language around automobiles is corrupted. Essentially all "accidents" aren't.
Owning and operating a multi-ton machine capable of travelling at high speed and rapidly accelerating is a huge responsibility. Being distracted isn't an accident, it's negligence. Not mechanically maintaining the vehicle is negligence. Not supervising your vehicle, even when you have some sort of digital aid enabled, is negligence. None of these are accidents.
Calling a system that is not fully self-driving "autopilot" while knowing exactly what the general public considers that term to mean is....something worse than negligence.
The driver was convicted of a felony.
> Calling a system that is not fully self-driving "autopilot"...is....something worse than negligence
So we agree that the driver isn't, by default, subject to a minimum penalty of jail time.
Given the rates of vehicle deaths in the US, the penalties are clearly not high enough to act as a deterrent.
The "default" for this charge absolutely involves at least a year of jail time (that is, in fact, the defining difference between a felony and a misdemeanor), and the plea deal in this case is an affront to justice.
Do you expect Giuliani to pay a cent?
It’s not binary, it’s a distribution and I do believe you can alter that distribution.
Or give those who negligently kill with their cars a choice: serve the jail time for your negligent homicide, or give up your license for life. That would still have a deterrent effect while not being life-ruining (just life-inconveniencing)
Is this not default? They have clearly proved that are not fit to participate in road traffic.
For a lot of people $23k is minimal disruption to their life.
Also thanks for flagging these too:
https://edition.cnn.com/2023/12/13/tech/tesla-recall-autopil...
https://arstechnica.com/cars/2023/12/more-than-2-million-tes...
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-67693935
I might have missed them otherwise.
To read the flagged submissions I do something like
sed -n '/\[flagged\]/p' yc.htm > 1.htm
links -no-connect 1.htm
This excludes the comments so I can evaluate the submission myself without the noise.Or, if I'm reading yc.htm, I might search for the pattern "[flagged]" in the page. In the browser I use, searching is done with a single keypress "/" and then "n" for next match an "p" for previous.
Popular browsers might require more complex keypresses or possibly mouse clicks; they might be sluggish with a 7MB HTML file. Not sure.
I should restate I suppose: Criminal law determined each life ended was only worth $11,500 each in this instance. This precedent determines you can drive your Tesla 74mph into another vehicle if you can pay a $11,500 fine for each random person you slaughter.