Swift 6 will not change the ABI in an incompatible way. If Swift 6 introduces features that require runtime support, then code that uses those features will not back-deploy, but other code will. We have seen this before. For example, Swift 5.7 implemented SE-0309 (“Unlock existentials for all protocols”). Some of the new features of SE-0309 required runtime support, and if you wrote code that used those features, the program would not back-deploy. But (I think) the compiler emits an error if your deployment target doesn't ship with the Swift runtime that supports those features.
The big changes in Swift 6 will be new semantic restrictions related to concurrency, and possibly a small amount of breaking changes to syntax. These changes will prevent some existing Swift 5 code from compiling in Swift 6 mode. That is the reason the major version number will change.