Comment by MichaelRo | Hacker News Reader

Comment by MichaelRo | Hacker News Reader

>> It’s more than just a fad; we’re in the craze phase, where putting "AI" in your company’s name gets VCs to just blatantly throw money your way.

It's not something new and predates ChatGPT by a long shot.

Some 10 years ago I was trying to market my trading system and the backtesting/simulation software that produced it and there was one and only one question that I was asked by a VC I got in contact with: "Is it AI?". I made the mistake to say "well, no.. plain mathematics". Never heard of them afterwards.

Now I'm soon going to market a new trading system and this time you know what I'll say that it consists of ;)

Incidentally I did work with "AI guys" trying to somehow drain some money out of the stock market using some form of magic. The approach is very "Lords Of The Rings" like, you don't need to know fundamentals, don't need a keen understanding of the processes and various instruments, because "the ring" knows. All you need to know is to spin the ring around your finger and make the wish "make money".

I never saw anything but bullshit coming out of these "AI in finance" but at the same time never saw but "great successes" reported by these guys twisting and twirling and tormenting the numbers in desperation to make them look profitable.

This has all happened before and will again.

In the 90’s you could prefix your company name with “e-“ or suffix it with “web”, or actually have the “.com” in the registered company name and your stock would immediately skyrocket.

(I’m not kidding or exaggerating - things got that OTT before the bubble burst).

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dot-com_bubble

“As a result of these factors, many investors were eager to invest, at any valuation, in any dot-com company, especially if it had one of the Internet-related prefixes or a ‘.com’ suffix in its name.”

And just in case you need more proof this is just the current year edition of an old thing: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Buzzword_compliant#Examples

Similarly reminded me of the blockchain hype which you knew was just getting out of control when "On-Line PLC" by simply adding said word saw summarily a 4x increase in their share value over night (it's since fallen back to it's pre-2017 value range).

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-10-27/what-s-in...

> The approach is very "Lords Of The Rings" like, you don't need to know fundamentals, don't need a keen understanding of the processes and various instruments, because "the ring" knows. All you need to know is to spin the ring around your finger and make the wish "make money".

What's the similarity to Lord of the Rings? That sounds more like Aladdin.

"Lord of the Rings" is just a convenient reference for this fairy story leitmotif: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Magic_ring

I recall (very badly) having read some Carl Sagan's reflection on this and how the fact is the majority of people hold some form of "magical thinking" which is completely at odds with rationality and the scientific method. Basically all you need is acquire some form of "magic ring" and you can be the "magician". When in fact you are not, you only are the magician if you can forge the magic ring. And diagnose and repair it when it malfunctions.

But that's not what "AI finance" is about, that's classical finance. AI is the magic ring here, somehow magically "it" thinks and does so that you don't have to. You only spin the ring and enjoy the riches.

> this fairy story leitmotif: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Magic_ring

The only thing the examples there have in common is that they're all rings.

They do different things; what makes "magic rings" a leitmotif when "magic hats" (also very common) aren't? The rule in fairy tales is very simple: any object can be magical.

You have magic swords, magic knives, magic bags, magic shoes, magic dolls, magic paintings, magic lakes, magic trees, magic stoves......

> what makes "magic rings" a leitmotif when "magic hats" (also very common) aren't? The rule in fairy tales is very simple: any object can be magical.

But this is not just about fairy tales, it’s also about folk lore. Things that people in real life sometimes actually believe in.

The linked Wikipedia article says:

> A finger ring is a convenient choice for a magic item: It is ornamental, distinctive and often unique, a commonly worn item, of a shape that is often endowed with mystical properties (circular), can carry an enchanted stone, and is usually worn on a finger, which can be easily pointed at a target.

Seems reasonable that in real life a ring might make a more convincing magical item than a hat.

Hats are ornamental, distinctive, and often unique, they are commonly worn, they are circular, they can carry a stone, and they can be easily pointed at a target.

People have been wearing special hats for symbolism for several thousand years.

And on top of all of that, the specific claim was that rings have a special presence in fairy tales, which is definitely not true.

Big Data. Knowledge Engine. AI. Blockchain. Crypto. IoT. The only industry more driven by fashion than IT is .. the fashion industry. And even there it's a close race.

There is always hustlers, but the current web of AI is undeniable.

I'm a ML Engineer and for the past few months I'm getting as much activity in LinkedIn as at the cusp of 2022 job market. In the startup space, I see 2 major trends:

1. Startups with the mission to solve problem X using AI.

2. Startups that solve problem X, but now are pivoting to AI.

The funniest case was this startup that was hiring for their founding ML team, and the recruiter simply couldn't tell me what this team was supposed to do.

You can tell people everything you do is AI powered if you're using GPT-4 every day

Indeed, it seems almost forgotten now, but between Web 2.0 and Blockchain, putting AI in your company description was for sure a valuation multiplier.

The current craze is magnitudes larger, of course, but we have not had an AI winter for a long time.

Just saying the word "AI" and the ring may render you invisible. Put something in front to give it a "one ring to rule them all" ring, e.g. "Hyper AI".

I have been in conversations with someone who wants to do something just like this. I shared with him this recent paper that suggests LSTM can produce better returns than the market. (https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/for.3021?af=R) . He will need simulation/back-testing system. Will yours be Cloud / Self-hosted / Open-source / Subscription based ?

Open-Source, self-Hosted. Needs a computer, Java, PostgreSQL and some historical market data (which you usually need to purchase, at least options data).

When someone asks “are you a god?”, You say YES!

Is what these AI conversations sound like to me.

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