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Comment by waterlesscloud | Hacker News Reader

But who for one second thinks that cable providers would drop HBO if they started going around them?

HBO has what cable companies need. The companies simply can't afford to cut them off.

HBO should call their bluff, honestly.

  Current HBO subscribers = 28M
  Revenue per subscriber  = $5

  Households that can support HBO Go = 5M
  Revenue per subscriber = $15
  Assume 100% of eligible households subscribe.

  (28M * -5 * x%) + (3M * 15 * 100%) = y
  x = 32.14%

For y to be positive (net gain for HBO), the chance that cable companies drop HBO needs to be less than 32%.

If we assume HBO Go adoption rates are the same as cable subscribers (26.6%), that means 800k subscribers.

  (28M * -5 * x%) + (800k * 15 * 100%) = y
  x = 8.57%

For HBO to have a net gain, the chance that cable companies drop HBO needs to be less than 8.5%.

Another way to put it, in order to risk $140M to gain $12M you need to be more than 91% sure.

It's worse since HBO's subscriber fee is closer to $8 per user per month. It's the most expensive cable channel on a per user fee basis. ESPN is around $4 per user.

The cable companies need HBO less than HBO needs cable. Without cable distribution, HBO is dead. Cable without HBO is still cable, though; 75% of their subscribers don't get it, and I'm sure a pretty small percentage of the ones who do would drop cable altogether in response.

It's usually unwise to start a fight you can't win.

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