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Comment by dmix | Hacker News Reader

Why is everyone so overly dramatic about this stuff. I remember when FSD was announced on HN everyone knew it'd be way longer and he was just pumping it up cuz that's how he is. It wasn't some big surprise.

Now everyone is acting like it's do or die, as if everyone bought Tesla's just so they won't have to ever touch a steering wheel at some point in the future. Only 19% opted for it and plenty of those are probably wealthy people who can afford novelties and all that matters at the end of the day is if you're competitive with the alternative options on the market (holistically not just feature to feature). Ultimately it's still just a car people bought instead of a BMW or whatever. They're not making car purchasing decisions comparing it to some beta project only running via taxis in silicon valley and some random small cities.

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Because Teslas market gap is based on the assumption that it is a tech company. This assumption is, basically, only FSD and Musks image as a tech genious. And a lot relies on Teslas valuation, including for a time SpaceX funding.

Officially announcing that FSD is a dead end takes allnof that away, and Tesla might very well be valuated as car company (which it is). And that share price adjustment could, or will, be a very serious problem Musk and his enterprises.

> Teslas market gap is based on the assumption that it is a tech company. This assumption is, basically, only FSD

Energy. Batteries. Charging network. Top selling vehicles (Model Y is best selling car worldwide)…

Energy is a tiny part of Tesla. Auto revenue was $19B last quarter, energy and storage was $1.5B.

Yes, which is why I also said they sell the #1 selling car in the world. I was responding to someone who said their valuation is based on FSD.

There was a time VW sold more cars in a year then Tesla did in its entire history (they still do by the way, a lot more), had the best selling car in the world, the VW Golf, for years in a row, was profitable, on its way to surpase Toyota as the biggest car manufacturer by units sold and had nowhere near the multiples in the valuation that Tesla has.

So no, having the best selling car is by no means a reason Tesla share prices are where they are.

Toyota has four of the top ten selling cars and is worth $290B. Tesla has two and is worth $792B. Tesla the carmaker is a valuable company but not more than Toyota.

You could make the argument a few years ago that Tesla was only electric car maker and would capture the market as it grew. But now lots of companies make electric cars. Electric cars are booming, Tesla is growing fast, but they are losing market share.

That's just rubbish speculation on your part. All evidence points to FSD having a very marginal effect on Tesla's market cap. The market has already discounted it as nothing more than a driver assist system.

Most of Tesla's valuation is easily attributable to the fact they sell a ton of cars, with very high profit margins, and are on track to sell even more in the future.

There are nicer ways to challenge the GP's argument.

Because that's what Musk has promised many years going. It's snake oil sold to the gullible because it's highly unlikely that the processors and sensor array in the production cars sold (with this feature) will ever be able to actually do FSD - no matter how advanced the software becomes.

If a company consistently lies to its customers and the market as a whole, shouldn't there be consequences?

HN is just generally awful on this topic and not worth commenting in imo.

Tesla is very well positioned even if they did zero on FSD (which they won't). The Model Y was the best selling car on earth across all categories (including ICE and EVs!) - not sure what more you could want for car company success.

HN has a lot of people that hate Elon Musk because they disagree with his politics. It's clear to anyone that is on here every day since his twitter became popular.

If you look back, 10 years ago HN loved him (see convo about first time 2 falcon 9s landed), but now that he is the richest man in the world the tides have turned.

You say that like there's something wrong with disagreeing with anti semitism. Of COURSE people disagree with his politics. You'd have to be fucked in the head not to. HN isn't Stormfront, you know. His behavior changed and new facts arrived since he used to be popular, so reasonable people changed their minds about him, and unreasonable racists are now his new biggest fans. The reason people hate him is not that he's the richest man in the world, it's that he's a bigot.

I'm stunned that I need to explain that to you. Is it actually news to you? If so, welcome out from under your rock. Or are you just pretending not to know, in order to troll?

How is he a bigot? What has he specifically done that is racist or anti-semetic?

I don't care that he called someone a pedophile. He apologized for that: https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/elon-musk-apologizes-for-....

There are uncountably many horrible things I don't need to insincerely issue a non-apology apology for at the insistence of my legal department, because I never did them in the first place.

You've got a lot of catching up to do from your 10 year absence from reality. I'm not going to lead you to water because you'll refuse to drink. Go google it for yourself, and stop trolling.

Exactly the response I was expecting. Throw out some huge accusations, and dont back them up with a single example. Solid work Don!

Have a nice day.

Exactly the response I was expecting from you too, since I just said you were pretending not to know in order to troll, and that confirms it.

I don't owe you any examples, because you know very well but are pretending not to know what I'm referring to, you're not a serious person, you're intellectually dishonest, and you're trolling, so your bad faith arguments don't matter, and you don't deserve a response, troll.

“Never believe that anti-Semites are completely unaware of the absurdity of their replies. They know that their remarks are frivolous, open to challenge. But they are amusing themselves, for it is their adversary who is obliged to use words responsibly, since he believes in words. The anti-Semites have the right to play. They even like to play with discourse for, by giving ridiculous reasons, they discredit the seriousness of their interlocutors. They delight in acting in bad faith, since they seek not to persuade by sound argument but to intimidate and disconcert. If you press them too closely, they will abruptly fall silent, loftily indicating by some phrase that the time for argument is past.” ― Jean-Paul Sartre

You didn’t answer any of his questions, which are not as ludicrous as your scathing reply implies.

Read the Jean-Paul Sartre quote below.

Let me ChatGPT that for you:

This quote is from Jean-Paul Sartre's work "Anti-Semite and Jew" (originally "Réflexions sur la question juive"), written in 1946. In this passage, Sartre analyzes the behavior and motives of anti-Semites. He argues that anti-Semites are aware of the absurdity and frivolity of their arguments. According to Sartre, they engage in such discourse not to persuade through rational debate but to amuse themselves and to disconcert their opponents. They do this by undermining the seriousness of any conversation, thus avoiding genuine discussion. When pressed, they may cease the discussion, indicating that they are above argumentation. This approach, Sartre suggests, is a form of bad faith, a concept he discusses in his existentialist philosophy, referring to acts of self-deception or dishonesty in one's dealings with oneself and others.

Can you connect this quote to the conversation at hand?

I will save you the time, no they cant.

Nice attempt at deflection, but it applies directly to YOU.

He is guilty (as in they lost this lawsuit for millions in damages) of letting the Fremont, California factory run like this [1]:

Robert Hurtado, a supervisor at Tesla, called Diaz the N-word over 30 times, including by saying “[N-word], hurry up,” “[N-words] are lazy,” and “I wish I can get all you [N-words] fired.” Tr. 3:604:23-606:8. Ramon Martinez, another Tesla supervisor, called Diaz the N-word over thirty times, said “I hate you, [N-word],” and told him “to go back to Africa.” Tr. 3-603:11604:20. Diaz's supervisor, Tamotsu “Tom” Kawasaki, testified that Martinez often used the words “mayate” and “chongo,” both racial slurs in Spanish. Tr. 2-281:9-12. Wayne Jackson, a Black program manager at Tesla, confirmed that Martinez used the word “mayate.” Tr. 2-381:17382:7. Martinez denied all of this. Tr. 3-584:18-585:1.

Diaz also testified that he complained to Romero several times about being called the N-word. Tr. 3-613:5-14. Romero agreed that he learned Diaz had been complaining about racist conduct, see Tr. 3-542:22-24, 543:13-14, though Romero said Diaz did not complain directly to Romero at least until the Timbreza incident, Tr. 3:561:1-4. Romero testified that he did not personally investigate Diaz's complaints and was specifically told by Tesla to not personally investigate the Timbreza incident. Tr. 3-541:22-542:1, 544:21-545:2, 549:13-550:16. Diaz and Romero both testified that Tesla never fired anyone for using the N-word. Tr. 3-552:10-19, 615:13-15.

Jackson testified that the use of the N-word was “[r]ampant,” as in it was used “[e]very day,” “[m]ore than several times a day.” Tr. 2-381:3-15. He found the N-word “[e]xtremely” offensive and “very derogatory” when it was used, regardless of how it was said. Tr. 2-383:15384:2. He said that these words should not be used in a workplace, but that there was “nothing” he could do to stop their use “[b]ecause Tesla allowed it. They didn't stop it.” Tr. 2-384:12-22.

[1] https://casetext.com/case/diaz-v-tesla-inc-7

That case that focuses on allegations against Tesla as a company, not directly against Musk.

Ten years ago was before he started calling rescue divers pedophiles.

and ruining twitter by recreating voat aka parlor 2.0

and don't forget all of the anti-union causes he donates to

Yeah the irony is he used to get a lot of hate from the right (because of environmentalism and EVs being left-coded) while the left loved him, but it's flip-flopped. I think partly because the media is directly threatened by twitter - there's a conflict of interest, but also because the progressive left has gotten worse (though I think the 'hate the rich' bit is part of it).

The same types of people (inaccurately) labeling Musk an antisemite are often simultaneously pushing/defending DEI offices and ideology at universities that cause actual direct threats against Jewish students.

I know that to be the case. I've checked the numbers from reputable sources numerous times.

But my mind still fails to comprehend this. It's a $80k cad luxury idiosyncratic vehicle. How's this out-selling civic and corolla, kia and hyundai base models? Have millionaires outnumbered regular folks by that much worldwide? I just don't understand that number if it's talking by units sold (and not revenue or profit). My entire world-view fails to make sense of that factoid.

I've sent it reported by several websites but I've never seen the primary source of that "fact". Lots of websites source Motor1 (some fly by night website I've never heard of) who source but do not link JATO Dynamics, another source I've never heard of, who has supposedly compiled "multiple sources" to find this figure.

I share your scepticism.

Base Model Y starts at $43k USD. Then there's probably some electric incentives to bring the even lower depending on where you live, so presumably you can get one in the mid to upper $30's.

That's not bad for a new car, especially when the general buyer I think mostly considers it a luxury brand.

Also the floor for car prices has gone up. The days of the near $10k new car are over.

> Have millionaires outnumbered regular folks by that much worldwide?

I'm far from a millionaire and a $40-50k car is not unreasonable, my wife's car is in the low $50s. But I have a Kia Forte that was like $25k. A small Kia for $25k! But it was the cheapest car I could find on shortish notice that had lance centering and whatnot.

USA and Canadian pricing is clearly different, fascinating! We just got a Kia Rio 5 for $20K CAD (starting price is $17K CAD). Which is less than 25% the price of Tesla Y starting at $68-70k (see my sibling comment a bit up for breakdown details). Absolutely different cars in size, features, capabilities, etc, yes! But for me, in Canada, Tesla Y is very much in the luxury category :-/

a 2024 base model civic in the burbs 2 hours out of NYC goes for $23,950, and will almost certainly have better QA than the tesla.

the media salary in the US is like 55k is a lot, esp. given the prices of everything going up, and given the alternatives.

Yeah I wouldn't buy one, was just trying to make the point that it wasn't so expensive that it didn't have potential to sell well just based on price, given the parent millionaire remark.

Model Y is definitely not a luxury vehicle in the US. I'm not sure about in Canada, but in the US the Model Y AWD only costs about $15k more than a mid-tier AWD Honda CR-V or Toyota RAV 4 trim (I just recently priced out options for our next vehicle). You'll make up that difference over the first 5-10 years in gas and maintenance savings, and then tax incentives shave off another $7.5k or more depending on the state at low/mid income levels. In other words, it's at most marginally more expensive than a Civic or Corolla, and on par with compact SUVs. The same is more or less true in China. See tons of Teslas there.

Tesla Model Y, according to website, starts at 70k CAD.

Toyota RAV4, according to website, starts at 36K CAD.

So that's plus or minus twice the price :-/

Other way of looking at it - even if it were "Only $15k USD difference" in USA, that is an entire car worth of difference (not only in pre-COVID times, when you could buy a new car for $10k! We just bought a $17k Kia Rio 5. Tesla Y is four time the price, and ~2.5 times the price of Corolla or Civic, which again I wouldn't think of as "marginally more expensive". (Edit: And this does not include the money one would presumably need to spend to install chargers etc at home).

Please don't take this the wrong way, but it's a somewhat Hacker-News specific perspective that Tesla isn't luxury, or that $15k USD difference isn't much. Acura RDX starts at $57K CAD, which is 12K CAD less than the Tesla Y, and I'd certainly consider that a luxury car. Other people might not! But that underscores my point that for high earners, "luxury" and "rich" creeps up. (same for me too! I used to think $100k a year was "rich" until I got there and then I conveniently moved up my own personal definition. I don't consider our Honda Odyssey a luxury internally - I consider it a "necessity" or a "practical choice" until I have a "whoa" moment and remember that my parents took five people around in a little Citroen AX and Zastava 101, and that vast majority of people cannot afford a $55k CAD family car - and even we got it used from a 2 year lease because $55k CAD for a car is just a lot lot lot of money)

Yeah, this is basically the reason.

The price is comparable, the costs of ownership are way lower, and the product is at least twice as good.

There's basically no downside which is why they're selling so well.

A lot of people are no longer buying new cars. Of my groups of friends, only the very wealthy and well paid ones have done so. Half of them very reluctantly because the used car market getting so crazy. In fact a lot of the craziness of the used car market is down to increasingly people can’t afford a new car.

It's cherry-picked statistics. It's just talking about a single model. Tesla has far fewer models than the larger automakers, so total sales are more concentrated in any one model.

Tesla has sold about 5 million vehicles in its entire history. The last time Toyota sold less that 5 million vehicles in a single year was 20 years ago (they do close to a million vehicles a month now [1]). VW Group is not far behind Toyota.

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1 - https://www.investopedia.com/toyota-global-output-hits-recor...

The biggest reason why I haven't traded in the Tesla for something else is FSD. No other system compares. With FSD, I can do 6-8 hour segments where I actually drive the car less than ten miles total.

The Supercharger Network is nice as well but Electrify America and evGo have been scaling hard as well and they work for the most part. Not like that matters because the Supercharger Network is being opened up.

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