Comment by jasonwatkinspdx | Hacker News Reader

Comment by jasonwatkinspdx | Hacker News Reader

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jasonwatkinspdx

Growing up in Kansas and having stood on a roof watching a tornado go through the other side of town, as well as walking through the aftermath of the 91 andover tornado (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s_D4TyZxHO0) that went less than a mile past my friends house, I strongly disagree.

We get severe storm warnings, but there's so many storms in tornado alley to be honest people get fatigue over them and mostly ignore other than maybe changing plans for a bbq. We in no way have some days ahead warning that this severe thunderstorm, out of the several dozen each season, is going to be one that launches a tornado vs a variety of over outcomes.

As far as knowing when a tornado actually forms, yes we can see some indications of rotation or a funnel "hook" on radar but they're also ambiguous with many, many false positives. The most reliable way to know a tornado has formed remains eye witnesses calling it in. We have basically no ability to do something like even a 15 minute warning confident there will actually be a tornado forming.

Please don't blame people for "not paying attention" for something that is not even remotely as clear cut as you're portraying.

This. I grew up in SW TN close to the MS border. That's as much tornado alley as Kansas over the past couple decades. I've seen two F4's up close and the aftermath of one F5. And a hell of a lot of smaller storms.

The issue is that there are 100 tornado warnings for every one that actually matters to you. And the tornado warnings really are tornados, but they mostly take out some trees on the ridge and the occasional barn roof. A lot of those are big, too.

The issue is the capriciousness of the whole thing.

You get used to close calls. They happen all the time. And sometimes those close calls kill a lot of people.

It's not that folks don't pay attention. The fatigue is real. But even more than that is the simple fact that most take out the barn and not the house. The difference between a lot of downed trees and a town wiped out is a couple hundred yards and random chance.

It's hard to rationalize and it's hard not to just accept the risk and just go on with your life.

I disagree. We always paid attention. Not to panic but to the part of the storm where tornados are as they go past.

One did take out the barn about 40 meters away. (it may have been a microburst, it was dark, anyway two buildings were translated one foot to the side and part of the barn roof ended up upside down on the ground next to the barn)

I don't know why people don't pay attention, I'm not surprised, but it puzzles me. When there's severe weather going past you pay attention to what's happening. There was always plenty of warning and plenty of information available.

The information is there, a whole lot of people who do get hurt by tornados are hurt because they're not paying attention to available information. It's not always enough to survive, true.

> The difference between a lot of downed trees and a town wiped out is a couple hundred yards and random chance.

... and the fact that American houses tend to be built out of wood and drywall and without a basement to use as an improptu bunker to hide in.

>We get severe storm warnings, but there's so many storms in tornado alley to be honest people get fatigue over them and mostly ignore other than maybe changing plans for a bbq

This is such a cop out. You can pay attention to the weather and make decisions based on that. People have chosen to carry on like nothing is happening. You can get alerts and warnings and watches issued for areas near you and see if the storm is coming or going. If you get alerts and see the system is to the east of you, then no problem. If you see the storm is southwest of you and still pay no attention to it, that's on you.

If people are single with no others to worry about, then fine, YOLO your life away. If people are "fatigued" with dependents and get caught up in it, it really irresponsible of them.

I never said it was clear cut. I stipulated that the multiday forecasts are sometimes farcically bad. However, when the severe stuff does hit, these guys are all over it. Choosing to ignore them when they are telling you it is there is totally mind boggling. When the severe weather is happening, they can literally show you the streets in the neighborhoods it is impacting or are directly in the path. If that's not your area, then fine, tune it out. But to say "I'm tired of hearing about weather not affecting me" is so so weak.

People have lives and have to go to jobs. It's not a cop out. You can't go to the basement every time there's a tornado watch. It's just not a thing.

I really dislike how smug, dismissive, and judgemental you're being. I don't think this is a positive contribution.

nobody said go hide in the basement because it's cloudy and there's some thunder and lightning. all i'm saying is that when there's severe weather outside and you know you live in an area where severe weather has the potential to bring tornadoes, you check the weather. there's no need for the "we didn't know".

> You can't go to the basement every time there's a tornado watch.

You can, though. I grew up attending a summer camp in Iowa, and we did go to the basement anytime there's a _warning_. 24 hours a day, if there's a nearby warning, all 200 campers & staff crammed into a basement singing songs and trying to keep the first-graders from crying.

That said, being able to tell the difference between a tornado warning and "a tornado will be at your house in 10 minutes" is the kind of detail that will almost certainly get folks to move to the basement and save lives.

I think you have "warning" and "watch" reversed:

A "tornado watch" means the potential for a tornado.

A "tornado warning" means there IS a tornado on the ground.

For a _warning_, everyone should take cover.

But watches are sent out frequently, for large areas -- that means that most people won't see that watch turn into a warning.

No, I had them right. Watch means "turn the radio on", Warning means "go to the basement".

I think the person I was responding to had them backwards; nobody is hiding in the basement for a tornado _warning_.

> I think the person I was responding to had them backwards; nobody is hiding in the basement for a tornado _warning_.

The PP was arguing exactly that::

> > > You can't go to the basement every time there's a tornado watch. It's just not a thing.

They were making that argument in response to the top commenter who was arguing that folks should go to the basement on a watch notice:

> > > > > This is such a cop out. You can pay attention to the weather and make decisions based on that. People have chosen to carry on like nothing is happening. You can get alerts and warnings and watches issued for areas near you and see if the storm is coming or going. If you get alerts and see the system is to the east of you, then no problem. If you see the storm is southwest of you and still pay no attention to it, that's on you.

Well, a tornado warning could be either radar indicated or ground obs (big difference).

> A "tornado warning" means there IS a tornado on the ground

This used to be the rule. Not anymore. Warnings are issued based on radar indications which could be rotation, a funnel that’s not on the ground, or could be a false positive entirely.

I was kind of close to a couple of tornadoes this summer.

Before, I believed it doesn't just sneak up on you but I am not sure anymore. We don't usually see tornadoes, and I don't think they were very big, so maybe that changes things.

One went a couple of blocks to the north of me. The tornado watch came out the day before so I was paying attention. I was standing on the porch watching in that direction. It was storming, but it wasn't a very strong storm. No green, no hail, no strong winds, rain was pretty average. Still didn't know until I started hearing about it through Twitter and a coworker. The warning came 10-15 minutes after he saw it.

The other storm that dropped a tornado went over us while we were at a park. It was sunny when we arrived ~20 minutes earlier. This one did have all of the classic signs - winds picked up out of nowhere, heavy rain, hail, etc. At least it made sense when we heard a tornado touched down.

Maybe it IS a weak argument, but I've seen dozens of tornado warnings where no tornado occurs. There are weeks where a severe t-storm watch is out 4-5 nights and it doesn't rain. Sometimes a severe t-storm warning comes out and it doesn't rain. It's really easy to start ignoring them. I even see winter storm warnings that fizzle out to a couple of inches of snow. The weather report is frequently a bad version of the boy who cried wolf.

SPC uses radar measurements (velocity) to detect rotation at different radar tilts. When you see 2 velocity points very close together, that usually raises the criteria to a warning. Sometimes, at the lowest tilt, we can detect debris on the radar..

But, as you said, not every warning translates into a confirmed tornado on the ground, a limitation of the current radar models.

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