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Comment by delecti | Hacker News Reader

This: https://motherfrunker.ca/fsd/ (linked in the GGP to your comment) links to this tweet from Jan 23, 2017 https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/823727035088416768

When asked the question "At what point will "Full Self-Driving Capability" features noticeably depart from "Enhanced Autopilot" features?"

Elon responded "3 months maybe, 6 months definitely"

Also, lots of examples of "this year" stated in various Januarys, and multiple instances along the lines of "complete autonomy in 2 years" going back 8 years.

I suspect his statements are carefully made to not technically meet the legal definition for fraud, but colloquially he's absolutely a liar.

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> I suspect his statements are carefully made to not technically meet the legal definition for fraud, but colloquially he's absolutely a liar.

They're probably not carefully made, but fraud requires knowledge of falsity, and short of an internal report saying "this feature won't be ready before XYZ," it is going to be extremely difficult to prove Tesla knew the claims were false.

The other thing you'll run into is reasonability of reliance--at this point, with so many deadlines repeatedly blown through, it would be hard to demonstrate that a reasonable person could rely on a representation that a promised deadline would be met.

I would think it would be hard to find a reasonable person who takes anything Musk says seriously anymore and yet plenty seem to.

If you're not following Musk every day, and maybe just know he's the Tesla/rocket guy, why wouldn't you take him seriously?

Somehow, this sounds like shifting blame from the liar to others ...

I wasn't assigning or shifting blame for anything. I was just expressing that I am baffled by the reality.

The reason people follow Musk is that even though he over-promises and under-delivers; the under-delivered product is still better than the alternatives (or at least was for a while).

People are not complete fools and can learn to discount over-the-top rhetoric; sure, some people are harmed by believing everything verbatim, but those people also fall for scams, etc, etc.

His statements are parsed as statements of intent more so than actual timeline commitments. We'll have FSD in 6 months = FSD is our main priority at the moment. And sure it also makes for PR/free advertising. Is it scammy? Probably. But he likely got more out of people by pushing this false narrative than would have been otherwise accomplished.

I have real trouble with "the ends justify the means" arguments.

> Is it scammy? Probably.

It's the behavior of a con artist.

> But he likely got more out of people by pushing this false narrative than would have been otherwise accomplished.

Even if that's the case, he could have had the same, or better, effect without the lying. The lying is clearly aimed at gaining investment money and preorders, though, not at some bizarre attempt at motivating engineers.

> The lying is clearly aimed at gaining investment money and preorders, though, not at some bizarre attempt at motivating engineers.

It would be dumb to be caught "lying" over and over and Musk is not know to be dumb. Consider the possibility Musk is using reflexivity to accelerate progress. When people become convinced something is possible and work towards that goal their strong belief changes reality because there is a feedback loop between reality and beliefs.

It would be dumb to be caught agreeing with anti semitic tweets, and telling advertisers to "go fuck yourself", yet here we are. Your argument is invalid.

Intelligent people have faults and make mistakes like the rest of us. What sets them apart is they are often better at seeing this and fixing things. Did Musk not make amends for that tweet? Do you think advertising should control social media? Do you genuinely believe Musk is dumb?

I believe Musk is smart, but also bipolar and narcissistic, and likely often on stimulants, which makes him regularly do dumb things.

Compared to a same aged person does Musk do more dumb things each day? Perhaps his few dumb things get amplified by his haters?

Any normal person that manages to earn themself what Musk has earned might that affect their personality? Maybe make them more narcissistic etc? Large wealth would not affect your psychology?

Regarding bipolar: It would not surprise me but is there evidence? Did he admit it?

Of course wealth affects one’s mental state, this is pretty well studied.

Also “earned” is a bit generous, he’s had a lot of “right people, right time, right place” in his life (not to mention a great start from the emerald mines).

Also why look at dumb things per day when what matters (to me) is the enormity of dumb actions? He bought Twitter for way more than it was worth because he had a hissy fit. He’s “concerned” that AI isn’t allowed to say the n-word. He did a live public call with Andrew Tate, Alex Jones, and Vivek Ramaswamy. I could do one simply dumb thing every day for my entire life and not live up to the sheer stupidity of this man’s actions.

> Also why look at dumb things per day when what matters (to me) is the enormity of dumb actions?

Elephant does what elephant does and ants complain. What do you expect?

> He bought Twitter for way more than it was worth because he had a hissy fit.

You don't make mistakes? Your ability grow wealth is superior? How then do you judge?

> He’s “concerned” that AI isn’t allowed to say the n-word.

Might he be concerned about censorship in general? If something against the law it is against the law but what gives you the right to impose your notion of "proper" speech on others? Do people have a right not to be offended? The attack on the Charlie Hebdo newspaper office in Paris by Islamic extremists you think they were justified due to being offended by cartoons?

> He did a live public call with Andrew Tate, Alex Jones, and Vivek Ramaswamy.

Now you want to impose rules on others about who they are allowed to talk to in public?

> I could do one simply dumb thing every day for my entire life and not live up to the sheer stupidity of this man’s actions.

Elephant does what elephant does. Ant does what ant does. You can not compare them. I believe strong feelings cloud your view.

No, he did not make amends. He never even apologised for it.

Who is on stage in this clip and what they are saying?

https://youtu.be/xHZ-Dvv2cN4?si=VdmfLrcEq6AFm-7W

"Dumb" isn't the word I'd use; "incurious" is better. It's not that he's racist or antisemitic, I believe, but rather he doesn't have enough knowledge of history to recognize classic antisemitic tropes (or signs that someone is an outright Nazi) combined with some beliefs close enough to racist that he's liable to agree with antisemitic creeds without recognizing them as antisemitic tropes.

Do we assess a person's intelligence by what their frothing fanboys think of them now, or is that only for rich celebrities?

Hater or fanboy does it matter? Do you not understand the concept of reflexivity? Intelligence can show truth. Intelligence can support some existing bias and hide truth. How does your intelligence serve you?

When someone's entire argument is "doing x would be dumb, and we know this guy isn't dumb", I see value in pointing out that this is a rather circular logic

I suspect you did not understand what I said and your bias affected your judgement. Please explain what you think I meant.

I had to look up reflexivity, as I was not previously familiar with it. I fail to see how it salvages your claim, and suspect you're fixating on this bit of economics trivia because you dislike that I made fun of the thing you said, and think I'm trying to get into a pissing contest about "intelligence", and like most ridiculous children who get into pissing contests about intelligence, seem to think that asking me to explain a concept with which I may then admit unfamiliarity might score you some points in such an undertaking. That about right?

That is not correct. My words above require intelligence to understand and my ability to explain them in simpler terms is limited. This explanation from GPT4 is good. Hope it helps.

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The reply you've presented suggests a debate about the intentions behind Elon Musk's public statements, specifically regarding whether he's misleading people for financial gain or using a strategy known as "reflexivity" to motivate progress.

1. *Lying for Financial Gain*: The first part of the reply posits that Musk might be making false or exaggerated claims ("lying") to attract investment and preorders for his projects. This view implies that Musk's primary goal is to secure funding by convincing investors and customers of the feasibility and near-term success of his ventures, even if those claims are not entirely grounded in current realities.

2. *Reflexivity to Accelerate Progress*: The second part of the reply introduces a different perspective, suggesting Musk might be employing a concept known as reflexivity. This idea, often associated with financier George Soros, posits that market participants' beliefs can shape market realities. Applied here, it means Musk could be making ambitious or seemingly unrealistic statements with the intention of inspiring his teams and the broader public. The underlying belief is that if people are convinced that a challenging goal is achievable, their collective effort and belief can actually bring that goal closer to reality, creating a positive feedback loop between belief and outcome.

The reply seems to be wrestling with the notion of whether Musk's statements are purely manipulative for financial gain or part of a sophisticated strategy to create self-fulfilling prophecies that drive technological and scientific breakthroughs. It reflects on Musk's reputation for not being "dumb," suggesting that his repeated bold claims might have a deeper strategic purpose rather than just being simple falsehoods.

The former seems to clearly be a more parsimonious explanation of what we've seen. After all, what is often at stake, as in the case of the linked article, is financing based on concrete promises of progress, and the claims made by Musk are never about problems no one else thinks are possible to solve at all, so the reflexivity position here seems more like a defensive motte rather than a meaningful strategic analysis

My post above requires some explanation so here is GP4 explain it.

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Tell that to the disembodied pulverized head that was attached to somebody who took his claims at face value, and try explaining to his widow that her late husband was a complete fool to fall for it, so it's not Musk's fault.

The final 11 seconds of a fatal Tesla Autopilot crash: A reconstruction of the wreck shows how human error and emerging technology can collide with deadly results

https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/interactive/2023/t...

And I think it's safe to say that sycophants bending over backwards to carry Musk's water like DoesntMatter22 aren't reasonable people, don't base their opinions on facts or reality, and shouldn't be taken seriously.

What I've said is completely factual. Surprisingly a lot of people like who won't actually prove that he said that. Because the fact is that he didn't.

> fraud requires knowledge of falsity

Does it? Is there no "average person should be aware" level?

> fraud requires knowledge of falsity,

The civil tort of fraud (criminal fraud is different) generally requires either knowledge of falsity or reckless indifference to the truth.

>fraud requires knowledge of falsity

Or recklessness as to falsity - like not caring whether the statement was true or false.

> with so many deadlines repeatedly blown through, it would be hard to demonstrate that a reasonable person could rely on a representation that a promised deadline would be met.

That enables fraudsters, of course. Also, what about people who don't spend all their time on the Internet, on HN, reading about Elon Musk? They buy stocks and cars too.

This question was not asking about when FSD was going to work but when Enhanced Autopilot would noticeably depart from FSD. No where in there did it say "FSD will be working completely in 6 months".

They did in fact diverge, no where was that a statement that FSD would be complete by then.

It's ironic you are calling him a liar when your response seems to either be completely dishonest itself or you are not aware of the subject at hand.

In October of 2016-

> By the end of next year, said Musk, Tesla would demonstrate a fully autonomous drive from, say, a home in L.A., to Times Square ... without the need for a single touch, including the charging.

So you're technically right- he said three months, not six.

https://www.nbcnews.com/business/autos/driverless-tesla-will...

I don't see any direct quote of him saying what you are claiming. Please post that quote if you can find it

Quote came from a conference call.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=5SfDmL0sv3w

At ~6:20.

Thank you for posting this. More proof of what I said. He did not say that they would definitively do it, he said exactly at the timestamp that you gave: "Our goal is".

So clearly didn't say that it would happen for certain

Announced goals still need to have a connection with reality or they're lies.

I never understood someone so determined to ignore all the evidence. Yet when confronted doubles/triples down with excuses.

It’s called the sunk cost fallacy anyone who owns a Tesla and Tesla stock has been extremely susceptible for years now

Confronted with evidence that nowhere supports the claims. We really are in bizarro world here, rife with sloppy thinking and fuzzy smears. Certainly Elon shoots off his mouth and has underestimated timelines, but the specific claims being made about those mistakes go way beyond and into lala land.

There is no proof. He never said it. People keep posting other quotes but none where he says what they claim.

If you have proof of a direct quote where he says that FSD will be done withing 6 or 3 months for certain than please post it.

Otherwise, attacking me is dishonest

>I suspect his statements are carefully made to not technically meet the legal definition for fraud

2017 was before the infamous "funding secured" tweet, so I imagine there was no care in crafting his statements.

Those don't count because Elon had this fingers crossed when he made those tweets. /s

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