Fear of cheap Chinese EVs spurs automaker dash for affordable cars | Hacker News Reader

Fear of cheap Chinese EVs spurs automaker dash for affordable cars

reuters.com

40 pointslxm73 comments

We seem to define “cars” as vehicles that can:

1: Carry a 1,000 lb payload (4 people plus luggage) 2: At a highway speed of 75-80 mph 3: For a non-stop duration of at least 2 hours 4: With enough armor and safety features to probably keep you alive during a crash at 50-60 mph.

In that sense, a Honda Civic, a Tesla Model 3, and a 4 door pickup truck are all quite similar.

I think it’s a shame there’s no market for a 45 mph, 400 lb payload vehicle. They’d probably only need a curb weight of 1000-1200 lbs, and if electric, only a cheaper 15-20 kWh battery.

45mph? Are you kidding me? So they can jam up all freeways?

I mean if freeways adjust to have minimum speeds of e.g 55mph instead of the current 45 (and even that's only in some states), it would solve this by constraining such a car to cities and backroads.

You can’t really get anywhere in most of America if you stick to the backroads.

80% of the US lives in urban areas, in urban areas you can practically by definition.

https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2022/urban-ru...

Urban areas in the US by definition means not just the downtown but all the surrounding suburbs and rural buffers. You definitely need the freeway to get downtown in most cases.

Dude, you absolutely don't. There are plenty of places in the US where you can take public transit, walk, and bike to get everywhere that you need to.

Just because you live in a miserable, car-bound, suburban hellscape doesn't mean that everyone else has to.

I could totally do this in Seattle. Heck, most of the time my routing software avoids the freeway anyways, in favor of 25-40 mph roads. It’s a sore point though: we just have a couple of north south freeways and one east west one. Well, it’s better than nearby Vancouver BC at least.

What? I think I might be defining back roads differently than you are.

In my state it's illegal to drive any vehicle on a highway where it can't exceed the speed limit by 5 mph.

I assume there's some exception (probably involving the orange slow vehicle warning triangles) for things like tractors.

There are a lot of people who drive every day, yet go on the freeway less than once per month.

In which country?

The US?

I didn't even drive until I was 27. I'm in my 40s now, and have friends my age who still don't drive.

While the car reigns supreme in most of the US, there are still parts where it's possible to get away without one.

The US, if you are in literally any part other than right next to a freeway that you have to use to get to work because it's too far.

Literally all of them.

Do you really think that nobody works where they live? Who do you think works at all of the local shops in your town? Everybody drives in from a different city to staff your town while everyone who lives there drives out to staff another city?

I live in one of the top metro areas in the US. My commute to work is 15 minutes at 25-45MPH through residential areas.

I don't know why you're being downvoted. Hell, the freeways in the Bay Area are already clogged up by morons like the ones going 55 mph in the express lane (which baffles me, as you have to pay, a lot during rush hour, to use the lane) while people try to pass them on the right. I'm amazed when I get to go the posted speed limit on the 101 between the peninsula and the city.

Is this common? I've never seen anyone going 55 in the express lane in the 15 years I've been here. What freeway is this on? I feel like people get tailgated for going the limit in the fast lane, so 10 under would really stand out.

I see it (and worse) every day on the southbound 101 between the airport/Millbrae and 3rd ave exits, and on the northbound side between the 92 bridge onramp all the way up to the airport. They do get tailgated. They just don't care.

You just don't take it on the freeway, you use regular streets. I assume that's the point of having a 45 moh max, so you can go the speed limit on the vast majority of urban streets you would be traverse.

realistically, a 1000 lb vehicle that only goes 45 mph vehicle should _never_ be on the freeway in the first place. someone watching Netflix while half asleep in their cybertruck will murder them.

maybe this light-weight category isn't allowed on freeways? I think that would be a perfectly reasonable compromise.

Would you feel safe driving around in a 1200lb vehicle when most others cars on the road are 4000lb+. I love the idea of smaller vehicles, but big fear is safety of a smaller vehicle vs the monstrosities on the road today.

some people drive motorcycles. what's with this obsession with safety ?

Motorcyclists get killed by motorists kind of a lot. Once we've conquered the basic hurdles of cornering and not going too fast, cars are our biggest threat. And we're already on the relatively risk-tolerant side of things.

yes and when people on motorcycles get into accidents at 50 or 60 mph the results are often horrific.

...that's kind of the point you're replying too. they're afraid of being annihilated by much larger vehicles.

I can see both sides but am biased towards your point - if it's called an "e-bike" it'll be viewed differently than a "motorcycle"

Judging by the way motorcyclists in the bay area drive, "obsession with safety" is about the last thing I'd accuse them of. They're some of the worst offenders for weaving and doing dangerous stuff in crowded traffic conditions.

Unrelated, but speaking of holes in the market ... I really wish there was a "not quite fridge" for storing things like medicines and butter at "room temperature" in hot climates without relying on heavy A/C use. This seems like the kind of thing that should exist on a small scale somewhere, but if it does it has been SEO'ed away (SEP'ed?).

There are small fridges that use something like a peltier cooler for makeup or medicine. However, they seem to silently fail after a year of use. There’s probably a good brand out there, but all I could find were shitty Amazon no-names.

Maybe look into a wine cooler/fridge. Adjustable units top out around 65f.

I think Dometic and Engel sell portable freezers that will do what you want. They run off 12-24VDC or 120/230VAC. My larger one runs off a 100ahr battery for 4 days. You can set the temp from 20C to -4C.

They are pricey though $500-900. You can get off brand ones that are cheaper.

There are variable temperature beer can cooler style devices, but they use Peltier element and suffer from both thinner insulation and worse COP(coefficient of performance).

This is why Mediterranean countries use olive oil instead of butter. Adapting to their environment.

Traditionally cellars and caves were used for this.

There’s the LSV classification up to 25 mph

https://electrek.co/2023/03/22/wink-motors-test-drive-electr...

Yes. I’ve also driven a rented Renault Twizy in San Francisco 15 years ago.

I found 25 mph to be dangerously slow when other vehicles are moving 30-40mph, like on Oak, Fell, upper Market, etc.

Not to mention its punishingly harsh ride.

Well a Tern GSD has a max carry weight of 379 lbs and a max speed of 20 mph. Only needs a 0.5 kWh battery too. Has infinite range, depending on your fitness.

Can confirm, have ~7k miles on mine. There’s life before it, and life after it. It’s remarkable.

What you are looking for is the Japanese KEI class of vehicle.

The reason they are not street legal in the US is due to crash survivability. Even if their top speed is 45, they share the road with vehicles that are heavier or faster than them and it is not socially tenable to create a vehicle class that is very similar to an existing one but limit it's access to certain roadways.

In order to get survivability up to where we want it, you have to increase vehicle weight. Once you do that, you have to increase the engine in order to handle the weight i.e. acceptable acceleration

Or maybe make a 3-wheel variant so it's technically a motorcycle.

The USA has a market for golf carts, but they are road legal only in a few retirement communities. Japan has Kei cars, but they are phasing them out.

They are increasingly being allowed in other areas. I recently saw an article about a community in FL where kids could drive them before getting a license, and the neighborhood where I grew up in Sacramento has a bunch of them as well (but only adult drivers).

The USA has Neighborhood Electric Vehicles, which are legal in a lot more places than "a few retirement communities", e.g., in California they ("Low Speed Vehicles", in California law, NEV is a federal category) are generally permitted on public roads with a speed limit of 35mph or lower.

There’s about zero bad news here. A race to the bottom in price for EVs will reduce fossil fuels use mire than line after line of Tesla priced cars.

It's not bad news for the consumer or for climate change. It's only bad news for legacy automakers.

And the oil companies

I guess they'll be ok

Following further discoveries of oil and gas fields,[34] on 19 September 2023, Guyana authorized six foreign oil companies including ExxonMobil to drill in the waters claimed by Venezuela.[35][36] In October, ExxonMobil Guyana Limited (EMGL) President, Alistair Routledge, told reporters that "we have not been scared away by Venezuela…that’s why we’re still working in Guyana. That’s why we anticipate continuing to do so for decades to come".[37]

...

The United States Southern Command said on 7 December that its forces would participate in joint operations beside the Guyana Defense Force (GDF) in an effort to improve collaboration with security measures. US statements also said that the United States "will continue its collaboration with the GDF in the areas of disaster preparedness, aerial and maritime security, and countering transnational criminal organizations" and that the North American nation "will continue its commitment as Guyana’s trusted security partner and promoting regional cooperation and interoperability."[96]

Plastic

Toyota is sinking a lot of money and effort into anti-EV lobbying because they somehow missed the EV bus.

https://arstechnica.com/cars/2021/07/toyota-bet-wrong-on-evs...

That somehow was by being busy smoking their hydrogen pipe.

And yet are looking like the winners at the moment with the EV market slowing down due to demand and offering hybrids which the market can’t get enough

The EV market is slowing down in the US only because manufacturers refuse to make affordable EVs. Ie, the point of the article.

Toyota is going to get obliterated globally by Chinese EVs unless they change course very soon. Maybe they’ll hang on in the US for longer due to protectionism

The US protects Japanese car manufacturers?

The USA has tariffs on Chinese cars, and vice versa. Actually, China does the same thing with Japan, so I expect protectionism to make Chinese cars more expensive there also. But it’s primarily rules china put in place to protect their car market and encourage domestic production, and the rules in Japan and the USA are in retaliation to Chinese tariffs (which ironically are protecting them now instead).

"At the moment" is the key phrase. It remains to be seen if they will turn out to be the Nokia of the car world or Samsung.

The market didn't slow down. The rate of growth showed down very slightly. The EV market is still growing quite quickly.

There were more EV's sold in the first 9 months of 2023 than were sold in all of 2022.

2021->2022 came close to doubling. We won't and can't do that every year. But the market is still growing very quickly.

https://www.canarymedia.com/articles/electric-vehicles/chart...

I think the actual story is car makers who suddenly slapped together an EV hoping to make a Tesla are realizing Tesla makes teslas and they’ll have to find their own niche. Meanwhile model Y is the second most registered car make in the US behind F-150.

https://www.kbb.com/car-news/tesla-model-y-jumps-to-2nd-in-n...

It's crazy that this Chinese EV push will decimate global oil demand, which will collapse Russia's economy faster. But China then has to support/supply Russia with even more war supplies/materials, which I guess make Russia super dependent on China?

But then at some point, Europe (if they're not stupid) will say no more to being economically attacked by China and military attacked by Russia, and Chinese EV sales to Europe collapses...

The answer to competition is competition. Want Chinese EV sales to collapse? It won’t happen based on emotional or nationalistic appeal if they’re 50% the price of European and American cars. The answer will be making cars that are higher quality and cheaper.

Quality isn't really rewarded in sales. To the upper end up society, sure, but China is generally "good enough" on the quality side that prefer cheaper in the main.

The Chinese govt supporting new markets to enhance competitiveness and have abuseable labour basically makes them unbeatable.

I would say Toyota proved that isn’t true. American car makers tried a price only strategy and it led to a terrible reputation for low quality and opened the door to being totally pwned by Toyota, who offered more expensive but vastly higher quality products. The real test will be if Chinese car makers can leverage the ill gotten IP sufficiently to develop high quality products that are reliable and have high quality service experiences. I suspect they can meet quality standards, as quality control has met western standards in Chinese manufacturing of western products for some time. But establishing a service infrastructure will be a challenge in European and American markets that meets expectations. There is also a trend of corner cutting for domestic Chinese companies akin to 1980’s American car makers that will be interesting to watch, especially as time goes on and the initial focus on expansion wanes and BAU sets in. Hopefully though this will ultimately lead to more domestic research and less industrial espionage and forced transfer agreement based businesses, and all boats will rise from more competitive and research pressure globally.

Since China and World won't go 0 on oil consumption, it is easier for China to just keep buying it from Russia.

Given Chinas horrible record of reciprocity, why in gods name would any country allow Chinese companies to sell autos in their countries?

Tesla is the only automaker that hasn’t been forced into an IP theft disguised as a minority JV in China.

Oh the IP theft is happening anyway. But no, in their infinite wisdom, non-Chinese automakers oppose taxes and tariffs on Chinese dumping EVs because they fear retaliation against their China sales (such a big growing market!).

But of course the party will cut them out anyway, they were just waiting for local companies to make somewhat competitive cars. It will probably not be in the nature of obvious import tariffs, but it will happen.

Don't big auto companies have tons of plants in the China and are trying desperately to establish brand loyalty to all the newly middle class Chinese? Whats to stop China from seizing all these plants and outright kicking the companies out unless their parent countries let Chinese cars into their market?

U.S seems to have adopted advanced protection against dumping of Chinese EV vehicles, via the signature climate law and languages in the inflation reduction act. Chinese EV have barely any market adoption in U.S.

Europe is where the potential massacre could be. The Chinese EV still have a small share of the market, but it is gaining. Leave it to brainless Europe to allow China to dump their overproduced EV and kill Europe's entire car industry. Not to mention the profit then gets funneled back into China supplying Russia's war against Europe, making Europe even weaker to fend of China's economic attack. effectively win/win for them.

I think just the safety regulations are enough to prevent Chinese automotive entry in to the American market

> U.S seems to have adopted advanced protection against dumping of Chinese EV vehicles, via the signature climate law and languages in the inflation reduction act.

Those same laws exist in China though, which is why Tesla had to open a factory in Shanghai.

Geely bought Volvo, what automotive IP do you think China doesn’t have?

For years automakers have been pushing people towards bigger and bigger vehicles as they have higher margins, but saying that it's due to consumer preference.

The Chinese automakers are showing that there certainly is demand in those segments if you actually make decent vehicles, and they don't mind operating on slim margins to take market share.

The cost in human lives and misery of these larger vehicles is...staggering

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/tall-trucks-suvs-are-45-dea...

https://www.vox.com/23784549/pedestrian-deaths-traffic-safet...

This is great. Finally something forcing the hand of Mazda, Toyota, Honda etc to get serious about electric cars.

The recent news that China is now outselling Germany and Japan in monthly car sales[1] should be making them quake in their boots.

We're seeing a ton of Chinese made EVs here in Australia - BYD probably the most common where I am, aside from Teslas (which I think are now mostly China made for our market).

Really want to see a Mazda 3 EV or similar!

Every time I visit America, I’m amazed by the sizes of the vehicles on the road. Entire living room sized cars carrying just one person. Wild!

There’s a difference between affordable and “dumping”

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