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His job is to write something that people will read. And here we are, five years later, reading what he wrote. It looks like he succeeded. :)

On the flip side you have generally good, thoughtful, regularly accurate analysis/projections from Horace Dediu over at http://asymo.com.

And the 'Street vs. Amateurs' predictions are always interesting to watch: http://tech.fortune.cnn.com/2012/04/16/how-many-iphones-did-...

Don't forget that there's a whole segment of these guys who are basically paid to get it wrong--being the one guy who says, "this obvious winner is going to fail" attracts a lot of eyeballs.

Remember, being a pundit isn't about being correct; it's about getting people reading what you write.

Also, in the remote case he gets to be right, he will get known as the wise told-you-so guy.