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Comment by anonymousDan | Hacker News Reader

Oooh. The HN hivemind is not going to like this. More seriously, as I understand it the recent price rises are because it looks like its going to be possible to buy Bitcoin ETFs and the like more easily?

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3.7M is basically nothing for a country. El Salvador's GDP is $74 billion, so this is 0.005% of it.

And this gain does nothing unless the BTC is sold, and the proceeds benefit El Salvador in some way. This also assumes that amount of BTC can be sold. They need to find an entity that will send them ~$120M for their BTC, and better hope that this won't crash the market.

$120M is, as you said, not that much in the Bitcoin market.

It's not much in the market at large, but you need to find some party or several that has $120M sitting around, and willing to exchange that for BTC.

I expect making that transaction isn't that easy.

Could literally just sell that on one of the major exchanges over the course of a few hours

I've sold $8M on Coinbase Pro within minutes by setting a limit order (not a market order - although I'm sure some people will reply without knowing the difference) and it didn't impact the price

It would be an over the counter sale. Even using an exchange directly, together Coinbase and Bybit are trading $1B/day BTCUSD - there's no shortage of buyers.

And, all this has to be compared with what could have been achieved with a more typical investment (which would likely have carried less risk) over the same period. If they can make 4.5% speculating on high-risk commodities and 4.3% with low-risk lending to stable businesses, it's much more responsible for a nation-state to choose the latter.

You don't need to "find an entity" to sell just $120m worth of BTC, just click the market sell button and you'll still get a decent price

El Salvador won't ever "sell" their bitcoin. Your grandkids will be working for it.

> The HN hivemind is not going to like this

A government gambling taxpayer money in a virtual casino? What's not to like?

The HN hivemind is just admiring the current price of Tulips

After 14 years that's the best you can come up with?

It's amazing how a board full of computer science nerds can't appreciate the accomplishment of perfectly solving the double-spend problem in an open-source distributed digital ownership network.

That's a hint for you. Guys Danning and Kruger have something to say about this phenomenon :) .

Yes, you nailed it. They lack expertise in the fundamentals of economics. How can someone understand the true importance of the solution if they can't see the problem?

Exactly, as we know computer science knowledge completely precludes people of learning any other idea. Our RAM fills out and whoops - no space left :) .

Looking at the price rise from the trading perspective, traders have been drawing lines and for a couple of months now been saying that the large bull run is around the corner. And honestly, if you zoom out and look at just the lines and the last few large bull and bear runs and don't ask anymore questions, it really does look like it's time for a reversal.

Seeing people hopping in and buying BTC in hopes of riding the next big wave in hopes that the price goes to at least 70k.

Honestly I'm interested in this particular wave since given the recent currency devaluations that have happened since the last BTC peak in November 2021 I'm wondering what the odds are that BTC actually hits that magic 100k number if this is the big bull run people have been waiting for. And if it does, what happens then since that's the magic number the Bitcoin absolutist (maxis?) folks have been waiting to tout.

So basically, not sure if the current wave is anything to do with the actual news or just the retail trading that's going on.

People have been predicting far more than 100k for a long time, so I don't think people taking about 100k can be reasonably described as maxis... Highest prediction I've seen is maybe 1m.

100k is a pretty mainstream belief now, with e.g Standard Chartered predicting it by year end 2024.

Why do you think so? El Salvador gamble has failed spectacularly and HN crowd is skeptical about tokenbro scammers, so this checks out I think :) .

How is that easier?

The whole point of crypto is that it's easier to trade on than the traditional assets.

For individuals yes, but not for institutions. And these will treat Bitcoin ETFs as any other speculative asset and enjoy its liquidity.

Institutions don't execute themselves and go through the sell-side regardless.

Not really though. The point of Bitcoin is not about being easier, is about being a monetary system which is not in control of any single entity or government.

> monetary system

Bitcoin is not even close to being that nor it ever could. It's entirely a speculative assets not an actual currency (I couldn't think of a token/system less suitable to be used as actual money even if I tried very hard).

Ugh. I initially wrote currency, but knew I'd get a pedant to disagree with that definition, which I did get anyway. You're arguing its legislative and societal role, I'm calling it for what it is: a thing whose primary role is to store and exchange abstract, agreed upon value.

Just tell me what to call that.

Maybe it could be called a non-productive asset in the broader sense?

>Just tell me what to call that.

Just roll with Satoshi and call it "electronic cash".

Bitcoin is almost never used as a currency in the sense that you're describing. It is almost always used as a vehicle for (unregulated) speculation.

> a thing whose primary role is to store and exchange abstract, agreed upon value.

To be fair that's a hard one. Token? Speculative asset? I mean it's closer in most ways to stuff like gold coins or diamonds than real money.

> role is to store and exchange abstract, agreed upon value

Yet most people only buy it and/or hold it entirely for speculation/"investment" reasons.

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