Danish pension fund to sell its Tesla shares over union dispute

I think their current valuation is held up by the promise of FSD. If it comes to fruition, it would be huge, but (as a beta fsd user) I don't think they will ever deliver on their promise, and as soon as they admit that I expect the stock price to come back to reality.

Tesla outlook is not good. Main growth for them is basically automobile going EV where they have monopoly and they are energy supplier thru dominating battery tech. For EVs, they are able to dominate because other big ones like GM, Ford, Toyota havnt really going into EV market. In next 5 years every car manufacturers will be releasing their EV models and they have vastly superior production know-how compare to Tedla. Think Tesla like Blockbusters before Netflix HBO and Disney+ joining in. Cost of production of their EVs are no where cheaper than majority of EV manufacturers in Asia. Take BYD for example, they absolutely dominate China. In China, EV buses are a common thing. Meanwhile Tesla still struggling to make their cybertruck. Also a big growth is people believe Elon is at the forefront of selfdriving. If you dig down Tesla incidents worldwide on mysterious crashes, Uber would look like golden boy on that front. Then on battery tech, Tesla is literally the new Solyndra. Chinese market on battery tech now is at a stage no subsidies needed and production both quantity and quality exceed even Korean and Japamese manufacturing. Meanwhile everyone talking about Tesla S only getting half subsidies. I dont see how Tesla able to compete on that front even if they miraculously have German and Swedish quality next year. Remember Lehman Brothers, Citibank have their peak about 2 years before their permanent crash. Tesla is widely known to be overvalued. You want to sell it to the next suckers believing it will worth more before that suckers realized it is not. Danish did the right thing to get rid of Tesla. The only thing really worth some consideration is Elon making X as western Wechat with builtin Amazon+Uber+banking sub-apps in. That remain to be seen. In the meantime I put money into MS and AMD as they are a bit undervalue when you consider they have dominating asset in AI.

It's absolutely baffling, their share price already dropped a fair bit but I'd say it's still massively overpriced. How any professional trader can justify holding Tesla shares right now is beyond me. Maybe people are thinking they're going to end up making bank from the supercharger network?

I’ve always assumed that it was partially a meme stock. An unusually large fraction of it is retail investors.

“Tesla Inc.’s most recent quarterly vehicle production volume came to 430,500 units”

“GM Sold Over 20,000 EVs In Q3 In US, But Growth Disappoints”

One is not like the other. One has ~$120B in debt, one does not. One can rely on more gov’t bailouts while the pther is not likely to need them.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/715421/tesla-quarterly-v... https://insideevs.com/news/689723/us-general-motors-bev-sale...

They are a very heavily advertised first mover in the (perceived) next-generation of automobiles.

Investors operate on discounted net present value of future income streams. Perceived future income streams, that is. Investors may be wrong, and they know it. But, they tend to act and think similarly, so quite often you will see a band-waggon effect in various investment categories.

At the moment the EV market is in (entering, actually) the growth phase and the traditional car market has topped the curve ages ago. Yet there is not many obvious recipients for investor money in the new market as most actors are still "one foot in the grave" ie. they are also in the traditional car industry. There are not many "EV-only" actors. This by itself dictates a premium (I am not saying it is sane behaviour on the long term, only that it is predictable, explainable, and somewhat logical).

So, Tesla gets far too much capital going in. Because, where else should it go? It's perceived as an unicorn at the moment. Investors know that it will not continue to be so as a growing market in early growth phase means that dynamics will change dramatically along the way, and future outcomes are close to impossible to predict as it hasn't really been invented yet.

But, cars are a massive industry. And, investors figure they will continue to be. So they have to be in there somewhere. And Tesla is new growth while the established players are playing on an entirely different field. So, there is potential.

As long as there is potential new investors will invest, and you will have positive returns. This means that you are not wasting your money investing in Tesla, even though you know positively that at some point the market will change, and there is no law dictating that Tesla will emerge as the winner (or survive at all).

OTOH many case studies I've read seem to imply that those that "invent the category" seem to disappear longer down the road as established players in related industries (or, entirely new ones) ramp up and enter. But by then investor money will have moved on too. Or, so the individual investor thinks. S/he might be right, or OOB - time will show. If you're not invested yourself you need not worry.

Profits and growth are way more important than revenue.

Google’s revenue is only 2x GM’s, and yet they’re worth almost 100X more.

As a car company it makes no sense. As a tech company delivering on self driving, robots, etc. Maybe.

If it wasn’t an Elon Musk company, I would say impossible. But his companies have a way of delivering the impossible. So maybe.

they're not a car company and are not saddled with debt