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Absolutely. 15 years ago I could reasonably trust forecasts regarding whether it’s going to rain in a given location 2 days in advance. Today I can’t trust forecasts about whether it’s raining currently.

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I think that is a change in definition. 15 years ago it was only rain if you were sure to get drenched. Now rain means 1mm of water hit the ground in your general vicinity. I blame an abundance of data combined people who refuse to get damp and need an umbrella if there is any chance at all.

No. I mean getting drenched, when forecast predicted no rain. 1mm isn’t really noticeable by humans.

It seems unlikely that the modelling and forecasting has become worse, so I guess there is some sort of change happening to the climate making it more unstable and less predictable?

>I guess there is some sort of change happening to the climate making it more unstable and less predictable?

I've been seeing this question come up a lot lately. The answer is no, weather forecasting continues to improve. The rate is about 1 day improvement every 10 years so a 5 day forecast today is as good as a 4 day forecast 10 years ago.

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