Experts revive ancient techniques to make concrete more sustainable
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It also means there will be pretty much nothing left of our architecture, all those appartments, offices, museums, bridges, will all need to be destroyed and rebuilt. Not that modern architecture is really worth preserving. But it feels the only thing our era will leave behind is financial debt and bits in the cloud!
But I can see at least some buildings being profitable even then. A modest London property can easily cost 500k, most of which is the land itself. If it lasts 100 years, that's "only" 5k per year, and you keep the land. Obviously the calculation is different if you're buying a 95-year-old concrete property, rather than building a new one. I imagine mortgage providers are paying attention, they already strongly dislike lending against steel-framed houses.
I don't think we'll be seeing mass demolitions of 100 year old properties and infrastructure, except probably quite a bit of useless office space if RTO continues to not really happen over the next few decades. But we will see some very expensive and disruptive repairs-in-place to infrastructure when it can't be ignored any more.
Looking around Palo Alto, there are a fair number of wood frame building ps of about a century in age, and a LOT built in the 1950s. I dont know about survivorship bias, but a century seems like a pretty reasonable assumption.
(I was built in the 1960s so appreciate the thought that I might still be going strong in the 2070s, thanks!)
Isn't possible to do some repairs to make it safe again, instead of completely demolish it? I live in a big city (South America) with a lot of old buildings. People treats property as something that will last forever, but if this is the case, a lot of people are going to lose assets - and I am also scare of the gov to check that these buildings are still safe.
This ends up being a complex question that's unique to every building, and needs to take into account the architecture, the soil (reinforced concrete is used in footers/pilings) and a ton of other factors.
But what makes it extra scary? In most countries there is always a company that will tell you "Yes, it can be done, and for less than the cost of replacing the building". Even in the USA this happens and then we have deadly condo building collapses.
I say "most countries" because I hope that there's some country where they have tight enough regulations to prevent it. Like maybe Norway or Luxembourg or something.
51 years.
42 years... and some poor maintenance
Currently, less than 1% of rebar is made from stainless steel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zn9SzyDhfj8&t=140s
In general only the 12 or so most common elements can be used for construction. Copper is the rarest material used in major applications, but this is relatively less total mass consumed than rebar.
1: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bushveld_Igneous_Complex#Minin... (50% of world supply)
2: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ring_of_Fire_(Northern_Ontario...
At 43:51 in the video, he claims that an outer layer of stainless steel rebar is sufficient to protect the interior, so the goal is not 100% stainless.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abundance_of_elements_in_Earth... says chromium is slightly more abundant than copper.
I occasionally buy stainless steel strut and a 10’ stick of 12ga 1-5/8” deep SS 316 strut is around $250. The same strut made of galvanized steel is around $40.
What I mean is that this number is defined by design, although they are of course also constrained by what is possible within the set budgets.
Reinforced concrete lifespan depends on a lot of factors, including some that can be controlled, such as isolation of the reinforcement, materials used, various qualities of the concrete itself. When the new structures are designed, engineers do the calculations to achieve a specific goal in terms of lifespan, construction cost and maintenance cost.
I don't know how this works in practice, but I would hope that various factors such as the total cost and environmental impact (yes, I can hear my inner self laughing at my naivety here) are taken into account to arrive to the optimal target.
There's small scale movements towards changing this. Some cities are specifically building buildings in a way that makes them modular and reusable[1]
[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/H%C5%8Dry%C5%AB-ji
[1] https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20230207-can-we-design-ci...
https://www.acsa-arch.org/chapter/toyo-itos-second-age-of-al...
Rather apropos counter-example: Rome's Pantheon is several hundred years older and built in part of concrete.
OTOH if I buy a condo in a building built in the 1970s....
One issue with a long-lived building is that you never know exactly when it will fail. 700 years down the line, it starts to crack: now what? The evolution of biological systems has strongly preferred regular replacement to longevity.
Five-over-one is probably the most common new residential apartment building variant in the US today, it’s a single story of concrete (commercial space or common areas) with 4-5 floor of stick built (wood-framed) apartment housing on top. Developers only build apartment towers when the land is expensive enough to force them to.
https://www.npr.org/2021/08/26/1031245430/surfside-condo-col...
As a structural engineer, I can tell you this is not correct as a general rule, but is true for structures subject to chlorides, especially marine structures like bridge piers.
One of my now-retired professors at the University of South Florida studied concrete durability for FDOT. He told me FDOT is now using a 100-year design basis for bridges. The concrete materials and additives have gotten quite good over the past 2 decades. We are learning a lot and still improving our concrete.
The key is to make a tortuous path for the chloride ions so it takes them decades to build up enough to overcome the passive film at the steel-concrete interface. The high pH of the concrete matrix causes this passive film, and it takes either acidification or chlorides to defeat it. Concrete bridge decks and roads in cold regions that use deicing salts are also damaged by chlorides.
Reinforced concrete protected from the weather in buildings would not have a 100-year lifespan forecast. If the building is properly maintained, the concrete should last much, much longer than that. I say "properly maintained", because of the Surfside Condo collapse in Florida. There a leaking plaza deck, lack of maintenance, and design flaws (columns too skinny) led to a tragic collapse of a building.
Rebar of fiberglass, carbon fiber, basalt, and other combinations is all redily available and has known properties.
The key issue is that steel will corrode, then expand and put the concrete in tension (which concrete sucks at reacting), causing the concrete to crack, then spall off. None of the composites do this.
Yet, despite composites being available for years, and even being cheaper than steel [0], they are being picked up at remarkably slow rates.
It seem blindingly obvious to me that everyone should have just switched some time ago. Yet, this has not happened. Why?
[0] https://ernestmaier.com/is-fiberglass-rebar-more-affordable-...
Yet in this case, the existing tech is known bad (although TBF, the how-bad is well-characterized), and the new technologies are already qualified to fix this bad tech, e.g., carbon-fiber re-wrap of disintegrating steel-rebar bridge columns [0,1,2].
Certainly seems that applications like road-bed construction that require rebar, where the worst-case is a part of the road gets potholes prematurely, vs abridge or building collapsing, should already be mandated to use composite rebar. That would significantly increase the data set that can be used for real-world aging studies, with minimal risk?
[0] https://www.hj3.com/blog/dot-bridge-column-repair
[1] https://www.advancedfrpsystems.com/how-to-repair-concrete-co...
[2] https://hydratechllc.com/resources/case-study-dot-bridge-con...
For instance HeidelbergCement has successfully piloted and is currently implementing technologies that bring the CO2 emissions from cement production close to zero. The OxyCal hybrid process that they are deploying in Bulgaria and Belgium will capture >97% of all emissions from the cement production process.
Oxyfuel is where you feed the combustion process using pure oxygen mixed with exhaust gas, instead of air. Since you're not pulling in all that nitrogen gas from the air, the exhaust is much richer in CO2, which is then easier to catch.
Amine capture is where you use an amine solvent liquid that is sprayed as droplets into a large column, where the droplets fall down and absorb CO2 into the liquid, while the exhaust gas flows up and leaves the column free from CO2. Then the liquid that collects at the bottom is moved to a stripper cylinder, where the liquid is heated up and the CO2 is released as pure gas.
Specifically for the cement process, using both of these technologies together, it turns out you can do some cool process integration where the byproduct of one is the requirement of the other, and vice versa, so you can make the whole setup a lot cheaper in both CAPEX and OPEX.
I remember reading an article about the longevity of Roman concrete. The best they could come up with was the use of volcanic ash and much slower curing in salt water.
But many methods are available both to extend life, and to monitor the health of reinforced concrete. The failures that do occur are typically due to negligent maintenance.
The Romans didn't use steel reinforcement, of course, they just used massive concrete structures. We can do the same today, but it would mean no skyscrapers, no long span bridges, etc.
To be able to build the Pantheon, at 43 meters height, they used walls with a thickness going from 6.4 meters at the base down to just 1.2 meters at the top. In addition they reduced the density of the concrete by almost 50% towards the top, by using very light aggregates.
In comparison the Burj Khalifa at 828 meters heigt has less than a tenth of the wall thickness at the base, just 0.6 meters of reinforced concrete wall thickness in the hexagonal frame.
Roman concrete is far more durable than modern concrete, reinforced or otherwise. Roman concrete self-heals cracks.
They think they've figured out why, quicklime: https://news.mit.edu/2023/roman-concrete-durability-lime-cas...
The theory is that the Romans hot-mixed their concrete with quicklime. As soon as tiny cracks start to form within the concrete, the cracks travel to lime clasts. The lime then reacts with water, creating a calcium-saturated solution. That solution then recrystallizes as calcium carbonate, sealing the cracks and strengthening the concrete.
The concrete is cheap. They are going to commercialize a modern formulation. One to watch.
The good news is these problems can be solved down the road! On the labor side, I imagine robots can be used to do the stacking and transporting. Probably 20 years down the road but definitely within the realm of serious possibility. As for the strength, you can watch and assay each large rock as you place it, and use some test + statistical methods to estimate structural integrity (the current model of pouring slurry into a wooden form is just a simplified version of this anyway, one that can be computed with a slide rule). As a bonus the result could be stronger due to its amorphous structure.
https://wonderfulengineering.com/this-new-monster-robot-can-...
I put it to you that if it was financially viable and simple ("ancient methods"), it would already be done.
Good luck to them
Working with off cuts/minimally processed stone is harder. You need to be able to manipulate a greater variety of shapes and sizes. Stuff doesn't stack. It takes way more brain and finesse on the work site to make things work well.
These ancient methods are in many ways much more complicated (not simple) than modern methods. But they are complicated in ways that we're just starting to be able automate well (computer vision systems to sort/group/place irregular blocks for example).
> Masic and his colleagues were trying to re-create an ancient Roman technique for making concrete, a mix of cement, gravel, sand and water. The researchers suspected that the key was a process called “hot mixing,” in which dry granules of calcium oxide, also called quicklime, are mixed with volcanic ash to make the cement. Then water is added.
> Hot mixing, they thought, would ultimately produce a cement that wasn’t completely smooth and mixed, but instead contained small calcium-rich rocks. Those little rocks, ubiquitous in the walls of the Romans’ concrete buildings, might be the key to why those structures have withstood the ravages of time.
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2023/sep/05/raac-and-rui...
Why Was "Roman Concrete" Not Used for Centuries After the Fall of the Empire?
https://www.reddit.com/r/AskHistorians/comments/d79rpp/why_w...
Archives of Modern Construction Engineering (ACME) :-)
I am glad that this is being investigated. One of the effects of climate warming is going to be a requirement for a lot of walls and being able to make those walls without aggravating climate warming as much as concrete use does now, is good for us. (it sucks the walls will be needed but alas that ship appears to have sailed).
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Mystery of Roman Concrete Unraveled - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=34353330 - Jan 2023 (1 comment)
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Why Ancient Roman Concrete Outlasts Our Own (2017) - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=29366911 - Nov 2021 (67 comments)
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Why Roman concrete is stronger than it ever was, while modern concrete decays - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=25690803 - Jan 2021 (7 comments)
A chemical reaction in ancient Roman concrete makes it stronger over time (2017) - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22580920 - March 2020 (64 comments)
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The problem with reinforced concrete - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=11975695 - June 2016 (147 comments)
Ancient Roman Concrete Is About to Revolutionize Modern Architecture - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=5883443 - June 2013 (23 comments)
How the pantheon has lasted 2000 years without steel in its concrete - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=1852000 - Oct 2010 (35 comments)