Gemini Postponed, "in some respects" as good as GPT-4
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In some respects, this comment is like Pulitzer-winning writing. (Pulitzer writing is in English, too)
In some respects, I am as good as George Clooney. (I am as good if not a better software engineer in my niche)
In some respects, $1 is worth far more than $10. (Earning the first $1 is in business is a bigger milestone than earning $10)
“To the best of my ability” is another funny one. To the best of my ability, I am the rubberhose variant of Mickey mouse. To the best of its ability, this comment is Diet Coke.
Such completely meaningless statements, but strictly speaking, unfalsifiable.
I'd do it myself but don't want to "steal karma" and I see you're active in the comments here (as of 12 mins ago..)
More generally though, the fact that matching GPT-4 is the marketing blurb as opposed to a GPT-3 -> GPT-4 level transition has me wondering: are we seeing the limits of current "just scale the data" approaches to ML? Like, we've basically scraped everything worth scraping off the web, and when you do that with any of our current techniques, it lands you somewhere around GPT-4?
I don't have the link anymore, but i saw a quote from a LinkedIn connection recently at one of the FAANG's about how data matters so much more than architecture for ML today. To paraphrase, it went something like "it turns out that when your data is large enough, architecture doesn't matter. GANs converge to about the same thing as diffusion models. Convnets converge to about the same thing as ViTs. Data size and quality matter a lot more".
This was my thought too. You'd think Gemini would set higher goals (higher than GPT-4) given that it will come out one year after GPT-4, but no, they are just achieving GPT-4-level performance in some respects.
Maybe this says less about Google's lack of AI capabilities and more about OpenAI's first-mover advantage that made them pour billions into what was (like you said) the asymptote of AI intelligence using current arch.
What a wild change in fortune that would be.
OpenAI/Microsoft looked to be forever ahead, but maybe this is the break everyone else needs to catch up.
I'll be really happy if we wind up with more companies owning different parts of the market rather than just FAANG at the top. Or more competition in general.
It's notable that the scale, design, and architecture of GPT-4 is a closely guarded trade secret of "Open"AI. This strongly hints at some critical discovery, some new technique, or some aspect dialed up to 11.
Whatever it is, the competition hasn't figured it out, or managed to copy it.
https://techstory.in/bill-gates-5-cents-on-generative-ai-gpt...
He's a proponent of a plant-based diet - looks very unhealthy.
He's the Oprah Winfrey of technology.
On the article itself, yeah I don't believe a word from Google and they've clearly delayed it because it's going to be nearly as embarrassing for them as Bard has been. We know it's not because it doesn't handle some non English queries, because Google has never been shy about releasing products to only some regions or in some languages before.
Humility is a virtue