Joel Armstrong once said
"You wanted a banana but what you got was a gorilla holding the banana and the entire jungle.". That's a very catchy metaphor, although he was talking about C++ style OOP with bloated classes. Still, it feels like it could be generalized to software bloat, rigth?
What you're arguing seems to be "you think you just wanted a banana, but it turns out the customers needed various banana sizes, levels of ripeness, even special alternative hypoallergenic banana breeds, so instead you get a gorilla to fetch you the right banana from the jungle for each situation."
I do think that there is truth to that, but to be honest I think that in an ideal world that would account for some these orders of magnitude, but leave out the majority of them. It is really, really easy to underestimate just how much faster and bigger computers have gotten in the last thirty years.
What I find a more compelling argument for the majority of this increase in software size and CPU usages is that letting the software bloat and slow down the level that the customers tolerate is a form of externalizing costs for developers. A lot of developer convenience comes at the cost of the end-user, imo. And even if the developers care, then the companies that employ them don't mind saving money that way.