Comment by gjsman-1000 | Hacker News Reader

Comment by gjsman-1000 | Hacker News Reader

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> EV's are 10% of the American market

Ah, no. EV sales in the US are slowing with dealerships having large amounts of unsold inventory, as documented below:

https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/personalfinance/2023/11...

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/11/01/why-dealers-say-ev-sales-hav...

The total percentage of new cars being sold as EV is about 7.9% in the US for Q3 2023.

https://electrek.co/2023/10/12/ev-sales-7-9-us-market-volvo-...

https://www.coxautoinc.com/market-insights/q3-2023-ev-sales/

That sounds great, until you realize that new car sales have slowed significantly due to the economy and high interest rates; meaning that wealthy people have outsized buying influence at the moment.

https://www.marketplace.org/2023/03/06/new-car-sales-have-sl...

This has caused dealerships to warn Congress that they believe EV purchase orders will decline in percentage when interest rates decline and the middle class starts buying cars in greater quantities again; making the Congressional recommended deadline unfeasible.

https://www.teslarati.com/car-dealers-biden-ev-demand/

Despite the above, EVs and Plug-in Hybrids combined register as only 1.2% of all vehicle registrations in the United States.

https://www.visualcapitalist.com/visualized-ev-market-share-...

EV adoption is still increasing. The rate of increase has decreased.

Oh, no doubt, but the parent's comment about a potential flipover in 2027; that is, in my opinion, with the sources cited, wildly optimistic.

I am personally in the camp that believes, because of the geographic area of the United States and people's families (very different if all your friends live in Spain, and you live in Spain, versus California to Chicago); EV adoption in the US will be much more strained than Europe or China (as in China, 60% of the population lives in 12 coastal provinces and most of the family stays together). I could see the US easily being a decade or more behind, not because we're stupid or backwards or lazy, but because our requirements are different.

For the US; I think Plug-in Hybrids are a fantastic option that should be encouraged. They completely kill the arguments or concerns about range anxiety; and, what, 80%-90% of all miles travelled will be electric? Don't let perfect be the enemy of very good; especially when far more people would be willing to sign up. I think it's fine and reasonable to get 80% of the way there with broad adoption, wait a decade or so for EV technology to be even better and go further to where nobody has concerns, and then transition to 100%. Forcing people into premature technology ruins first impressions and sets stereotypes that will never die.

Hard to pinpoint a year. It's nearly impossible to figure the economic conditions in 2027 and determine if demand for new cars will be high or if there will be heavy (and high profile) investment in charging infrastructure.

Flipover in 2027 is highly unlikely in the US. Flipover worldwide in 2027 is highly likely because China is a much larger market than the US and has already flipped, because Europe is way ahead of the US and because the rest of the world is going to switch to $10,000 Chinese EV's quite rapidly.

> $10,000 Chinese EVs

That sounds like a safety nightmare.

They're a heck of a lot safer in crowded pedestrian conditions than the typical US oversized SUV.

And the $8,000 BYD Seagull has passed European safety testing for highway speeds.

I meant in terms of fire; I'd be concerned that if Tesla can't stop occasional spontaneous combustion, how about a cheap Chinese EV...

> typical US oversized SUV

I actually don't know if people will go back from SUVs even if there are better cars. They just feel psychologically safer to the passengers and the large cargo hold is convenient. If you took them away from people, I think there'd be widespread anger at EV's expense which is not needed right now.

A cheap Chinese EV uses LFP batteries, which have a much lower fire risk than Tesla's nickel batteries. And Gasoline cars have a 10X higher risk of fire than a Tesla.

Tesla is using LFP batteries in many of their cheaper, lower range vehicles. Just not in the US market since the batteries are sourced from China, and that reduces their EV tax credit.

Hybrids are much more complicated, and thus will be more expensive all things being equal. Once EVs break out of their current weird artificial premium only market segment, and are available at their natural price points like the cheap Chinese EVs, then they should be much cheaper than hybrids. I suspect all these range anxiety and geographic arguments will be proven irrelevant for most people, once the cars are cheaper.

> For the US; I think Plug-in Hybrids are a fantastic option that should be encouraged.

They are for the consumer. The Volt is a fantastic car.

Hybrids are a disaster for manufacturers. GM killed the Volt.

The manufacturing cost difference between the Volt and the Bolt was simply far too large.

The manufacturers are way better off putting the price difference into a larger battery and dumping the combustion side.

I found it interesting that even in Norway, the total share of EV is just below 25%. https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/23939076/norway-electric-...

Total fleet will obviously take a while to turnover, 93% new of passenger car registrations in September were PEV, 87% BEV, Norway has long led the world though in this area with very strong incentives for many years.

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