Housing costs are so high that divorced couples are still living together
wsj.com
wsj.com
There were even programs available to women (and men) for obtaining a mortgage, such as the FHA program established in 1934: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FHA_insured_loan (this program is still around)
Just like the 1964 civil rights act. It’s not that discrimination against race or sex or religion always happened, but it happened enough.
I find it hard to believe that there were many banks which refused to open accounts for single women or especially widows?
Source: my divorced single-mom grandmother and her incessant complaints about them.
The rate of cohabitation was probably sky high because most couples who wanted to divorce just stayed married because actual divorce wasn't worth it.
After selling the house we both rented town houses. We should have done more communicating about that because we unknowingly ended up renting 2 doors down from each other. That was the living situation which couldn't end soon enough.
It's tough stuff and I don't mean to comment rudely on your family situation.
One of my father's cousins swapped wives with his best friend. They were quite amicable about it and continued to be friends including going on holiday together.
I find the situation to be in equal parts discombobulating and fascinating
I currently live in a refurbished and expanded 19th century farm house on a 209 acre property with a horse farm which my fiancee owns. I retired in August at 54. I spend my days taking care of the property, horses and our daughters while my fiancee is off to the city during the week for work.
They left out the "in the trendy, inner city areas we want to live in" part.
Because whilst housing prices are rising in cities we are also seeing major declines in populations for smaller towns.
And whilst our parents were willing to sacrifice and embrace these towns which in turn became gentrified it doesn't seem current generations feel the same way.
But at some point you're going to have to give up this notion that population density can be made infinite. At some point you can't simply cram more "work" into a city.
Tokyo, Beijing, Hong Kong, and Singapore would like to have a word with you.
Sometimes I wonder if Americans travel out of the US at all.
Many big cities in Europe are having housing crises of their own - Lisbon, Amsterdam, London etc. Just today, there was this thread bemoaning the housing situation in Netherlands - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=38444948
> Sometimes I wonder if Americans travel out of the US at all.
Sometimes I wonder if people know real facts about Europe or just have some rosy imagination or generalize some tiny corner to the entire continent.
With its half-million population, Lisbon has better public transportation than my lovely Philadelphia, with its joke subway with two lines. I'd bet Lisbon's trolleys have better coverage than SEPTA has for the whole city in PHL. And, mind you, Lisbon is among the poorest capitals in the European Union.
I could easily live in Lisbon right now if it wasn't for the low EU salaries (and my wife really loving being in the US). My goal is still to claim my citizenship and retire there eventually or in Porto.
And I'm not even considering the really good infrastructure places, like Madrid, with its circular subways (two lines). The wealthiest country in the world must do better.
Saying they are better than the US is not really relevant to this discussion.
> I could easily live in Lisbon right now if it wasn't for the low EU salaries (and my wife really loving being in the US).
Exactly my point. Lisbon has all the goodies you mentioned (I too liked it when I visited) and yet one needs a US salary to afford a decent house there. Not possible on the median local salary.
And this isn't building skyscrapers all around. It is building those 4/5/6 levels apartment buildings all over the place, most with some businesses on ground level. There are plenty of opportunities to make these cities cheaper and more livable. What we lack here in the US is politicians who aren't sellouts.
In NYC parks are 14% of the city's land area, so it can't account for the whole discrepancy, but it's something!
And of course everyone wants to live close to their social circle. I want to live in a mansion by the beach.
But sometimes in life you have to make compromises especially when you're young and that includes working your way up the property ladder.
"Working your way up the property ladder"? The median sale price for a house in Westchester County, NY is seven hundred and fifty thousand dollars. With insurance and property taxes and the current interest rate, that's over six grand a month. That's a hair shy of the US median household income (before taxes!). How exactly is a person ever supposed to afford that?
They get a loan from parents
They rent out their basement
They partner up.
They buy the lower priced 600,000 home and make repairs themselves.
https://cdn.nar.realtor//sites/default/files/documents/metro...
Why is the response to high housing cost in cities lecturing "current generations" about their choices? There are glaringly obvious problems in many of our cities that make housing so expensive. Is it so outrageous to try to solve those problems, and allow people to be able to live where they want to live?
Is it possible there's a simpler explanation? That the economy of the twenty-first century is dominated by information and technology, and that these demands are better matched to the agglomeration affects of true urban density, where the best and brightest can learn from each other?
Obviously it's not the cities themselves draining the wealth, but rather a spiral of excess capital accumulation. It just so happens that many of the people perpetuating this cycle live in cities. Generally, increasing one's capital is done by taking money that was being funneled one place, and funneling it to yourself instead. For example, CVS can open a pharmacy and undercut local competition. Once the local pharmacies close, cash flows that were once destined for local pharmacies go to CVS instead. Local pharmacies would have kept the profits locally, but CVS siphons them from the community into the pockets of shareholders, most of whom happen to live in cities. These city-dwelling shareholders can they pay others to perpetuate this cycle.
> Is it possible there's a simpler explanation? That the economy of the twenty-first century is dominated by information and technology.
Is it, though? Consumer spending is about 70% of GDP. What is your personal spending on tech vs. non-tech items? Personally, I spend vastly more money on non-tech items compared to tech items. The margins are obviously much lower, so they don't have splashy stock tickers.
> Clearly, we're at an inflection point
This has been claimed repeatedly throughout history. Without knowledge of the future, it is impossible to know whether we are at an inflection local or global. With resepct to any American city, we know we are far from the inflection point because we have counterexamples abroad.
Such as? There are very few places in the world that match the productivity of the U.S. I don't think Luxembourg counts as a counterexample, for instance (population 640K). Singapore, maybe, but its population is under 5.5 million.
The US overbuilt in rural areas during the late 1800s and early 1900s as the railroads pushed west, others had a major industry that has dried up, and a lot of these areas just aren’t sustainable anymore. But America doesn’t have a system for handling de-ruralization gracefully, you still have to deliver power and phone regardless of whether someone wants to live in the middle of Wyoming. We rarely ever rip up a road, etc. Infrastructure is a one-way ratchet.
On top of that most of americas infrastructure is aging in general and we have a general crisis of insufficient revenue to maintain let alone fully replace it. Everything is built on the assumption that it will catch traction and grow, and when it shrinks then there’s no money to maintain or replace it. This is a general crisis across our whole infrastructure - even apart from de-ruralization we’d have overbuilt infrastructure in most places relative to sustainable revenue.
But for the average Joe who will never leverage themselves into those extremes, I'm not sure the data actually shows greater opportunity. My read from the data is the average Joe is generally worse off in the city with respect to job prospects and compensation.
But why do cities have all the opportunity?
This is an overstatement. In large parts of Midwest United States (and Canada), you can be middle class by farming. That is "opportunity" -- not amazing, but a good, middle class life in a small, safe town. Also, it is easy to own your home in a farming community -- much easier than large city or suburbs. It would better to ask why do cities have so much more opportunity in the 21st Century? Probably due to the structure of a highly advanced economy. Most of the (economically) valuable work in services is done in and around large cities.- Leaving for the big city/college
- Staying in your small town, but slowly becoming helpless as they fall into bad crowds, bad habits, or both
- Staying in your small town, but successfully continuing the way of life
It is unsustainable in its current form, unless you inoculate your children against modern ideas and technology (like the Amish) or make it more desirable for people to stay. I will point to European villages as a counter example. And then I will point to: lack of cultural homogeneity, the tenuous nature of living in the United States without a stable and growing source of income, and a lack of spiritually-enriching outlets as reasons why people move out of small U.S. towns towards cities.
The first leads to unstable communities. The second leads to subconscious unease and anxiety. The last leads to a restlessness which to leads to various mental ailments like consumerism, that can only be fulfilled by staying on the hedonic treadmill.
I posit that it is not cities that have all the opportunities, but that it is small communities that lack them.
Having come from such a town, I would not describe it as safe. Things are cheap and most of the people who are there are stuck there because they have no economic mobility. Yes, there are plenty who choose to and enjoy it but that isn't the bulk of the population.
> the capital owning class lives in cities
Cities are desirable places to live, so the capital owning class will buy and develop land there.
And it's all driven by simple economics. Demand is increasing faster than supply.
Now if young people want to participate in this market then all the best to them. I'm not stopping them. But statistically they have less purchasing power and demanding that the entire world ignore that fact is not realistic.
The city I grew up in is too expensive for me to afford as an adult. It would be nice if I could, but I've never felt like the world owed it to me to live there because I want to. People moving to cheaper and less crowded areas to try and improve their quality of life is a story as old as time.
Nope, they moved where the jobs were, same as the current generation. The difference is that back in the old days it was legal to build new housing rather than the ponzi scheme house price system that the older generation has voted for.
Many of them are/were also simply anti-social, racist, or just moved where they could plausibly drive to a job, and then kept that job for eternity, depending on what generation and which geography they come from, and for some of those, that actually meant moving to the areas we want to live in too, but can't because they all own it and the local government.
Although some people aren't willing to sacrifice certain luxuries, I don't know that living approximately where you already live and work is one of those. This idea comes up all the time of "just move to some arbitrary cheaper place" but the reality is that the overwhelming majority of those places require cars, and are quite isolated. Much of the time the difference in cost is made up in property taxes anyway, because the place is so low-density it can distribute the cost of the town's maintenance in an effective way.
It turns out that places that people want to live, much of the time, are places where other people live, for all sorts of practical and spiritual reasons, rather than in the woods
https://ipropertymanagement.com/research/renting-statistics
If your thesis were true, we might expect rent to be roughly stable and similar to inflation over the past few years as they drop in some regions and rise in others.
Instead, national average asking rent has well outpaced inflation.
There are a number of trends which you could point to as possible factors (The rise of AirBnB, large companies buying up properties to rent, etc) but it seems the key issue is a fundamental lack of supply which is driving housing prices upwards, pricing out buyers and increasing the pool of renters.
https://www.realtor.com/research/us-housing-supply-gap-march...
Since the 2005-2008 housing crisis, new household formation has outpaced single family home construction significantly each year. We're near all-time vacancy lows for both buyers and renters.
A free market should eventually seize the opportunity to build to meet that demand (and new home starts are up this year finally) but the housing crisis caused long-term shifts in the industry which will take time to recover, and then supply chain problems during Covid caused massive material cost spikes which further delayed construction.
Why doesn't everyone just move out into the middle of nowhere where it's affordable? Probably because there's not many jobs there?
I could see that reality spreading across the country.
It would be an awesome market though. I wonder if you could reasonably price the risk with a large enough pool.
Tangentially, I pine for the sci-fi world where I could have signed a five year marriage instead of an indeterminate-term one. At 18 I was barely smart enough to avoid the college debt trap. At 23...
I imagine a much smaller percent prefer that if not for financial reasons.
20 years of 'this is my house and...' is enough :D
Of my several divorced friends, all have agreed that divorce is the most expensive way possible to become a two-house household.
If you still get along well enough that you can live together peacefully, you might as well just stay married!
On the other hand, in coming times of global depopulation, what will housing situation look like?
In very harsh conditions. Looking at the history of the 19th century with all the wars, financial crises, social upheavals and whatnot.
To be honest most people in America have become so comfortable that they just look for problems to make there lives seem harder than they really are now days.
I would be willing to bet people were also happier back then too.
The land on which houses sit can't be produced. Someone owning all the existing land would ask for any payments and couldn't be refused unless the consumers wouldn't want to live anymore.
So when we are talking about housing, we have to be careful about qualifying the price as a bubble. There's underlying value underneath that can warrant any price.
I like it tbh, it's a good big mac index.
I would bet there's also an idealized rate of people finding their endgame that is much lower than the marriage rate and getting closer to that trends with high social mobility.
I do wonder if it's correlated to the decline in couples having children.
[1] https://www.forbes.com/advisor/legal/divorce/divorce-statist...
It's really tough when you add conflicting emotions and that feeling of limbo into day to day living - especially when there are now blurred lines of how you used to interact vs how you should interact.
If their situation was removed, I think this would be a decent article.
Hindsight is not relevant.
> You can’t expect people to predict the course of the bond market.
If you can't "predict" fed fund rates, then why make predictions on the housing market? The thing that the governments both state and federal is heavily vested with.
I think your reasoning is quite flawed. The Tantone's situation is one of unpreparedness and shortsighted to say the least, which as an insurance salesman looks pretty terrible.