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Comment by keiferski | Hacker News Reader

I like Vitalik but like a lot of tech leaders, his opinions on things outside of his expertise are not particularly insightful. The idea of mind uploading, for example, is taken as a serious possibility here, when in reality it's not much more than a sci-fi trope.

The 21st century may well be the pivotal century for humanity...

Every generation probably thinks this. And honestly, if I had to pick a major inflection point in recent history, it would be World War 2. The current world would be a lot different had the Germans or Japanese won. It seems to me that the current trajectory of world history is still just one extending from the 1950s.

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This is a solid take.

The motifs that he evokes in this essay are far too complex for me to digest in confidence from a "Techno-optimist" "tech leader" who is still so relatively young. I'd be more interested in reading this perspective (and its counterperspectives) from someone else.

He says mind uploading may happen in the future. Do you have any confidence that it won't happen in the next few centuries?

The issue is that there is no “mind uploading.” The human mind is dependent on the human body and any so-called uploads are really just clever copies, elaborate imitations. This is a problem with positivism, not with a particular technology.

I’m sure these copies will happen in the future, but I don’t think this concept of identity will withstand real scrutiny. What’s more likely in my opinion is a reapplied focus on the body / extended cognition and a discarding of the mind-body dualism model that enables thought experiments like mind uploading to be conceivable. Or, as Vitalik mentioned, more of an enhanced human model that builds upon the body instead of discarding it.

that very much depends on your philosophy. Many believe that there is no continuous "self" in the first place.

it doesn't matter if the upload is a copy, if the "original" is constantly being shredded and re-printed every moment anyway

But the shredding and reprinting machine is a human body, biological in nature. That isn’t equivalent to a digital “body” made of software. There is a difference between the body-self of yesterday’s cells and a self made of software.

Again I’m not denying that elaborate imitations of the human brain won’t be possible. But that these won’t be copies, they’ll be a new thing. Hence “uploading” is an incorrect model.

> There is a difference between the body-self of yesterday’s cells and a self made of software.

There doesn't seem to be a strong reason to presume this. What is your basis for stating this?

> But that these won’t be copies, they’ll be a new thing. Hence “uploading” is an incorrect model.

Sure, that's a relevant, but pedantic point. Does it matter? Presume star-trek transporters were real, effectively they could be said to be duplicating and murdering every-time someone is beamed up. But the subjective experience is still one of continuity. It seams likely that would be the case for an "uploaded duplicate" they would "feel" like the original, in mind (barring sensory differences). Whether the "upload" process itself is destructive is another matter.

I'm curious how this plays out in reality. Already you can make very crude copies/imitation of people like the Robot Dad mentioned on HN yesterday https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=38433330

As time goes on these kind of things will get better and maybe you can have a copy version of you to chat to people you don't really want to talk to or do chores or the like.

As you get older and maybe go gaga the AI version of you may be closer to the old you than your physical self, and that could live on if you pass away.

Not sure if they'd do things while no one talked to them or just respond like GPT or have some physical presence or in VR or if you could leave money and power to the virtual you or not. Guess we'll have to see how that plays out.

Getting data from scanning a brain is probably a long way off but could be added in in a few decades if they get there. Sadly real world teleporters probably aren't happening. Though maybe in VR.

There's actually a YC startup for brain scanning but I still think that'll be a while https://www.technologyreview.com/2018/03/13/144721/a-startup...

If we're talking inflection points, my vote would be for the industrial revolution.

Industrial revolution was not an inflection event.

It was a continuous process that lasted centuries, at different times in different parts of the world.

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