Mapped: The Migration of the Millionaires in 2023 | Hacker News Reader

Mapped: The Migration of the Millionaires in 2023

visualcapitalist.com

31 pointslangitbiru64 comments

Given the size of the country and taxing situation, 2100 seems low for the US, and 1000 very high for France.

Must say something about the quality of life.

I read somewhere that under the US-French tax treaty, for retired Americans who move to France their retirement income (social security, 401k etc) is only taxed by the US, not by France.

So it's an attractive place for American millionaires to retire.

Additionally, France is one of the few countries that recognizes Roth tax advantaged status for retirement accounts. Most other countries do not.

That’s pretty awesome, i hope to corroborate that information

Wealth numbers aren’t public if you don’t want them to be

It is very difficult to make this chart or any of those lists, they are inaccurate and a subset of people with public shareholdings and other disclosures

But it can show a representative trend

Don't forget they're net figures and the US may be high in both directions (strong pull and push factors, not least because the "millionaire" category in wealthier countries includes a lot of mid career professionals at multinationals)

France is also an obvious destination for wealthy Francophone Africans, and has freedom of movement with 27 countries (whereas I think it's quite easy to have a net worth of a million dollars and still not get a US visa)

Yeah, population-wise US is ~4.9x FR (vous voyez), ~61x SG (lah), and ~31x CH (gället).

Then again, scaling by population makes UK outflows look much worse than RU. (it probably puts UK top of the outflows, as scaled CN and IN will be negligible?)

Yes, it would be nice to see these lists be ranked as % of population. Probably some countries would move into these top 10s that aren't there now (and aren't there either if you re-order the given top 10s).

Wouldn't be surprising if there are a few countries where most anyone who strikes it rich takes the 1st flight out.

rough figures from https://www.henleyglobal.com/publications/henley-private-wea... and https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.POP.TOTL :

Top 15 HNWI outflows (2023 forecast), scaled to pop (2022):

  Hong Kong       -1000   7       -1.43E+02
  UK              -3200   67      -4.78E+01
  Russian Fed.    -3000   144     -2.08E+01
  South Korea     -800    52      -1.54E+01
  China           -13500  1412    -9.56E+00
  South Africa    -500    60      -8.33E+00
  Brazil          -1200   215     -5.58E+00
  Mexico          -700    128     -5.47E+00
  Chile           -100    20      -5.00E+00
  India           -6500   1417    -4.59E+00
  Argentina       -200    46      -4.35E+00
  Vietnam         -300    98      -3.06E+00
  Ghana           -100    33      -3.03E+00
  Saudi Arabia    -100    36      -2.78E+00
  Japan           -300    125     -2.40E+00

Top 15 HNWI inflows, scaled to pop:

  Monaco          400     0.04    1.00E+04
  Singapore       3200    6       5.33E+02
  UAE             4500    9       5.00E+02
  Australia       5200    26      2.00E+02
  Malta           200     1       2.00E+02
  Mauritius       200     1       2.00E+02
  Switzerland     1800    9       2.00E+02
  New Zealand     700     5       1.40E+02
  Greece          1200    11      1.09E+02
  Luxembourg      100     1       1.00E+02
  Portugal        800     10      8.00E+01
  Israel          600     10      6.00E+01
  Canada          1600    39      4.10E+01
  France          1000    68      1.47E+01
  Netherlands     200     18      1.11E+01

All the numbers in the EU are skewed due to the huge net inflow of millionaires leaving the UK since the Brexit. Most of the millionaires fleeing the UK are going to an EU country.

As for where millionaires go settle in France: I'd bet many go to the french riviera, where it's all sunny (and grumpy french people btw: french people in the south of France tend to very grumpy, especially with expats).

It's not unlike certain older americans retiring in Florida.

Can confirm, I'm in the french riviera, and I'm grumpy.

Does the french numbers count Monaco?

That would be weird, as Monaco is an independant country with their own administration and passport. Plus, unlike the vatican, it's an enclave by design, not integrated in the French public life beyond a few agreement to facilitate crossing the border.

Not clear how they determine “net worth” in countries like Russia. Many rich individuals there make money through corruption and the money are being hidden in various ways.

The same things prevalent in Russia are the same things everywhere else

Anyone can form a trust and merely write on the paper that it is adhering to the laws of a random jurisdiction anywhere in their country or anywhere in the world, and that paper is never registered with the state but is able to hold banks accounts and titles and the beneficiaries are never known to anyone, or can be swapped out after the bank account is formed

Trust net worth is never included on your personal net worth, nobody knows anything

The most interesting thing about Oligarchs are that they were raised under a communist system and understood capitalism better than people raised under a capitalist system, who hardly understand communism either. Everyone should study what they saw and anticipated, so you can be prepared to make some oligarch level trades too and keep it as opaque as necessary. You have the same tools. It literally takes a multinational coalition of sanctions against your country and you for this to ever be investigated in a half effort way, and thats not going to happen, and even then the assets have difficulty being seized by countries that follow the rule of law

What's equally fascinating is how they manage to brainwash and agitate so many people to kill each other, from their remote estates in Dubai, Spain, Italy, France, and from yachts in the open sea. Many countries can be called "rich country of poor people" but Russia, Belarus, Ukraine indisputably beat all competition.

Can you elaborate?

If you’re referring to the content and troll farms I don’t think those are run by oligarchs

just random working class folks trying to get by

Oligarchs have cuts of revenue streams from an oil refinery or a piece of a grain silo, random titles to revenue generating things built with Federal agency budgets given away for practically free when the government wasn't going to own the means of production anymore. Just had to be there.

At least some troll farms were run by Prigozhin, an oligarch. Then there is intense domestic propaganda directed at domestic population.

ah, yeah. I’ve run into social media marketers for products that told me they can do the same for NGOs, politicians, they named India, Russia, states within countries I never heard of, US

domestic propaganda is huge, definitely flies under the radar

In Singapore's case, I'd say it's because of a strong commitment to free markets, zero capital controls (like, zero), and a long-running history of respecting private property. That's how they got rich in the first place and that's what makes them attractive to HNWIs who want a location where their assets won't be seized at a bureaucrat's whim.

After you've acquired generational wealth, your next concern naturally turns to protecting it so that it can't be confiscated at will.

I've forgotten the circumstance, but sometime in the 1980s (or 90s, not sure) during a particularly serious oil crises, the Singaporean government went out of their way not to seize/buy off/requisition the stock/reserves owned by refineries and oil companies operating out of Singapore. That culture of respecting private property unless the cash has a serious criminal connection is one of the biggest differences between countries losing/attracting millionaires.

Another huge factor in Singapore and UAE is the language and culture overlap with places with millionaire outflows. There are many other places in the world that are unlikely to threaten your private property or demand absolute loyalty to government connected families, but you won't get by speaking Mandarin or Arabic in most of them.

More surprising to see Greece on the list, which doesn't do particularly well in either it's reputation for good governance or there being many Greek speakers stuck in much more corrupt or dangerous places.

Greece and Portugal offer access to the EU. If they were not part of the EU, the flow would probably be negative.

I understand people leaving the other countries but the UK has fallen so low that people are leaving it too like it is a Brics country.

Wonder what is up with the UAE or Singapore. They are such small countries.

They’re both wealthy, strategically neutral, and “business” friendly (in both the normal sense and in the “mind your own business” sense).

They are rentier states. That’s their business model.

I wouldn't have guessed Australia to be at the top of this list. What am I missing?

It’s close and generally friendly to Chinese money. It’s also a developed first world country with a good amount of rights/freedom.

Healthy lifestyles, extremely high life expentancy, relatively low crime, no school shootings, multicultural, clean air, low pollution, southern hemisphere (less likely to have nuclear fallout), access to land (for those that like large estates), urban cities + vast rural areas, global primary resource supply as a business makes it attractive to those in legal, corporate, Engineering (civil, mech) and related industries.

For millionaires from the UK (fleeing Brexit), India, SE Asia and elsewhere it has all the first world advantages and less of a number of downsides.

Given the imminent (<10 years) collapse of Xi's China, it's unsurprising that they top the charts in people with means fleeing. We'll be discussing/dealing with the ripples of that for decades. It is sad that so many lives will be lost in the famine that results.

Given that I've been hearing that China's ten years away from collapse for the past 20, ill believe it when I see it.

The reason people with means leave isn't because of impending collapse, it's because life is better overseas, today.

Or because they got their money in shady ways, and aren't interested in dealing with the consequences of getting caught.

It doesn't collapse until it does, and then it becomes really obvious. Nations can last for a long time as long as whatever keep them afloat are still available.

China will collapse just the day after the Evergrande's final bankruptcy bankruptcy.

That is quite a bold claim. What are the sources or inferences you draw on for this belief?

The main reason often cited for China’s downfall is demographic collapse.

They have too many old people and not enough young people.

It’s potentially possible that automation can solve this problem but China’s economy has relied on relatively cheap labour for growth and the shift from will be rather alarmingly sudden.

While it may be true that China has/will have "too many old people and not enough young people", it's still quite the stretch to posit

1. China has demographic imbalances

2. ???

3. "It is sad that so many lives will be lost in the famine that results."

If you want to see China demographics collapse: https://tradingeconomics.com/china/employed-persons

That being said, they can avoid a production collapse by increasing productivity. China is building all kind of infrastructure like crazy. They need to move to first-world status, however, in the next 10 years or so. It’s going to be interesting to watch.

Chinese millionaires are not leaving because they fear instability.

They are leaving because they want the luxuries of the West: Suburban lifestyle with cars, freedom to travel, freedom to invest globally, access to the best universities, access to technology like Facebook, Google and latest gadgets.

>They are leaving because they want the luxuries of the West: [...]

The one you're leaving out is rule of law and not having to living in fear of you or your business being seized by the government when the party feels like it (eg. crackdowns on the tech/tutoring industry, covid lockdowns). That's arguably the "instability" that you're talking about.

Surprised by Greece. Do they have some tax breaks for millionaires?

Article says something about a €250k real estate investment being the only requirement.

So, buy a house -> welcome.

$1M is now high net worth?

Always has been. See related VHNW, UHNW. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/High-net-worth_individual

might have made sense in 1996 when they started using the term...

For more than 99% of the world's population it most definitely is. For many, many of them, it's almost an incredible, dreamlike amount of money to have.

For many of the countries in these lists it might just be working class retirees who sold their modest family home in the suburbs.

It's roughly the top 1% globally: https://www.credit-suisse.com/media/assets/corporate/docs/ab...

If you don't care for the global measure, you can focus on your country or region. But for a global measure, like for this map, it's relevant.

Wouldn't it make more sense if HNW was relative to the individual country for this map? e.g. a non-HNW individual leaving the US may become a HNW individual in another country.

EDIT: I understand HNW has a definition already, I just mean maybe it's not the most informative measure to use for this graph.

> https://www.credit-suisse.com

> Editorial deadline: 1 September 2022

Half a year later they weren't that smarty-pants anymore!

It excludes primary real estate.

Is a negative number a good thing or a bad thing? Maybe its a good thing and the country managed to equalize wealth more. Unlikely, but maybe.

This is migration and not creation/destruction of HNW.

If all the millionaires moved to the same country, global inequality won't change. But the wealth of the individual countries will equalize.

Many countries would no longer have the tax revenue to pay for education, healthcare, feeding schemes etc.

It's a bad thing. Rich individuals leaving a country means less tax income for education, healthcare, etc.

In theory yes, in reality many of these people are pay little to no taxes, on their personal income. Once you hit a certain level of income you can more or less buy the services and accounting advise that lets you determine your level of taxation. Jeff Bezos famously paid so little in tax that certain government programs designed for the poorest became available to him as well.

One of the more famous Danish millionaires have recently criticized the governments plan to target people like him with a new tax. He already announced that he wouldn't be paying it, opting instead to "reallocate his funds" to keep him out of the new tax bracket.

Maybe if they're gone we can reallocate my taxes to education and healthcare instead of giving trillions in handouts to billionaires. We could end up with an increase in money available for social services.

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