ChatGPT generates fake data set to support scientific hypothesis
nature.com
nature.com
Perhaps I'm naive, but I think the people that want to fake data were already doing it without tools like chatgpt. Especially since a ton of biological data is normally distributed, so it's exceedingly easy to generate plausible fake results for such data without a system as advanced as chatgpt
(The whole binary hypothesis system and culture is a mess though, but that's besides the point.)
However, I think that no one will do the scut work necessary to find that a null result was faked, and even if they do since you the researcher got very little status out of it then it’s believable that you made a mistake, and didn’t falsify data.
GPT definitely wins out if you want more novelty/variety in your fake data and are willing to accept extraordinarily higher cost, less rigor, and less reliability. I'm sure there's some occasion when those criteria win out, but Faker's pretty decent most of the time.
It is harder to keep bad data out than it is to keep it filled with good data.
There's plenty of research into AI safety. There were some damn coups going on over AI safety. The general public defines AI safety as Skynet and homemade bombs, but it's also things like this - political manipulation, astroturfing, fake data, the risk of another industrial revolution.
It's something we should be slamming the brakes on, but most of the people calling out AI safety are also building their own B52 bombers, so nobody takes them seriously either.
80000 Hours has been telling people to get into AI and nuclear policy for years now. Hopefully we have some competent people in govs who do something.
Maybe it will increase and/or get a bit higher quality with LLM fakery. But as with many "AI bad" themes, the problem isn't that "AI" can fabricate the data. The problem is fucked up institutions and cultures.
It’s just still mind blowing I can get a sarcastic summary of an email in the theme of GlaDOS from Portal and in the same screen get an email proofread.
It’s funny how far “what should the next word be” can go.
From the thumping good detective-ghost-horror-who dunnit-time travel-romantic-musical-comedy-epic: Dirk Gently's Holistic Detective Agency
A quack's dream come true, substantiating an argument by backsolving from its feeble or malevolent conclusion to a set of well-known premises but-with-citations. converting untenable speculation into something that passes many superficial tests of legitimacy, which is more than enough to boost it into broader and less critical visibility.
"thick with citations, therefore truthy" is a big blind spot in the casual heuristic used ro gauge the quality of a given piece of research writing, especially at the undergrad level where this tool, lets call it CheatGPT, would be stupendously popular.
But I'm talking about writing a thesis statement, "eating cat boogers makes you live 10 years longer for Science Reasons" and have it string together a completely passable and formally structured argument along with any necessary data to convince enough people to give your cat booger startup revenue to secure next round, because that seems to be where all these games are headed. The winner is the one who can outrun the truth by hashing together a lighter weight version of it, and though it won't stand up to a collision with real thing, you'll be very far from the explosion by the time it happens.
Wild things will happen if screaming hoax from ignorance can no longer shut down constructive efforts.
It will simply combine what is written about germ theory or heavier than air flying machines and produce sensible responses.
The patent db's are full of treasures if you have oh 1000 years? to study it. Maybe 10 000?
It should also be possible to take a seemingly unworkable idea that makes no sense and gather just what is needed to bring it into reality.
For stuff you can build or otherwise test properly it makes no difference what people think is possible.
People think very little is possible, we always did! Everything that can be discovered has been discovered has been the mantra for thousands of years. This while the things people actually accomplish seem to get more and more astonishing.
I've not seen much evidence of this in my own reading. Maybe in some fields, but certainly not all. During the COVID years I read a lot of epidemiological and public health papers. They all had dozens of references and would be published in well known journals like Nature, BMJ, the Lancet etc. Yet when checked many of the referenced papers would simply not validate. For example, they existed but wouldn't actually support the claim being made. Sometimes they wouldn't even be related, or would actually contradict the claim. Sometimes the claim would appear in the abstract, but the body of the paper would admit it wasn't actually true. That was only one of the many kinds of problems peer reviewed published papers would routinely have.
It became painfully apparent that nobody is actually reading papers in the health world adversarially, despite what we're told about peer review. The "a statement having a citation = it's true" assumption is very much held by many [academic] scientists.
It's a subcomponent of the very strong belief in academia that everyone within it is totally honest all the time. This is how you end up with the Lancet publishing the Surgisphere papers (a paper using an apparently fictional dataset), without anyone within the field noticing anything is wrong. Instead it got noticed by a journalist. It needs some sort of systematic fix because otherwise more and more people will just react to scientific claims by ignoring them.
Don't get me wrong:
1. GPT-4 is incredibly interesting
2. Studying GPT-4 is interesting for people working in that field
But when I see people writing about how GPT-4 can pass the USMLE (etc), it has no lasting meaning. It might as well be marketing for OpenAI, and to me it has roughly that amount of academic importance.
But for people who are nominally using this to conduct scientific inquiries in other domains, the specific performance characteristics are what actually matter. When I am writing about the results of my semantic segmentation model, the characteristics of that specific model are more important than the notion that future models will be at least as good.
Hence my critique being pretty narrow (the academic use of GPT-4 for downstream science).
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plastic_Fantastic
If that fraudster had started out with ChatGPT4, the fraud might have persisted for another decade (because organic semiconductors don't seem to have the capabilities he believed they had), because he was only detected via replicated datasets. If he'd had ChatGPT4 to generate new plausible datasets, well...?
I guarantee you that a significant fraction of the people in academia who 'got there first' on significant discoveries in science did so by fabricating data along the lines of Schön. They just guessed right, and fabricated data, and then more serious careful scientists were able to replicate their bogus work later.
Schön guessed wrong, and every effort to replicate his work failed, and Bell Labs, Science and Nature were left with egg on their face, which they're still trying to wipe off. ChatGPT4 and its shady parents and affiliates will only make this problem worse, not better.
"Benefit to humanity" my ass.
[edit: if you wonder why I sound so salty I read all those Schön papers with interest and fascination when I was a young graduate student myself, now I'm older and seriously jaded.]
That had me confused for a moment, since there's no GPT-4 model called Ada (the current embeddings model is called that, and there was a GPT-3 LLM model with that name too).
Then I realized they were using ADA as an acronym for Advanced Data Analysis.
While no time now, I’m still interested in making a list of resources (esp free) that tells how to construct good studies, has comprehensive presentation of all categories of mistakes/lies we see in them, examples of each, and practice studies with known errors. Anyone here got good books or URL’s that could go in a resource like that? That could train new reviewers quickly?
If I return to AI or ever work in it, I also planned to teach all of that to AI models to automatically review scientific papers. Might contribute to solving the replication crisis. Anyone who’s doing AI now feel free to jump on that. Get a startup or Ph.D. with a tool that tells us which of the rest are fake.
I’ve met many “data driven” teams that quickly turn their nose up at bad data
See:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Synthetic_data
or in scientific literature:
https://arxiv.org/abs/2208.09191
a few companies are doing exclusively this
this stuff is getting old. it doesnt need studies on how an LLM bullshits. nobody needs a study on that, they need an article in a tabloid at best.
They've been doing some interesting work on factored cognition to avoid these sort of hallucinations [2].
1: https://elicit.com/ 2: https://blog.elicit.com/factored-verification-detecting-and-...
> The authors instructed the large language model to fabricate data
What did they think would happen, exactly?
As for extending life… social creatures live more? therefore smoking extends life.
ChatGPT does not generate data. It reassembles the data (text) it was given, including the text in its training corpus.
Train an LLM on text that only uses lowercase, and it will never output an uppercase letter.
10 01 = 1001?
its as stupid as that. some try to get around it by indeed only having the 10 different digits and glue them together, but its a hallucination that that works.
an important point in generalization is for example that you teach it something. This is literally important
'ycombinator is a website' is a prompt that is almost impossible of ycombinator is not in your training set
It's easy to mistake entropy for novelty. Computers don't create: they compute. Calling an LLM "Artificial Intelligence" is a bit like mistaking a pseudorandom number generator for true noise.
I can see how other words are a bit more precise, though. Synthesize, perhaps?
The dirt in the ground sorts impurities from water, but we don't call it intelligent or generative. We call it entropy.
(this is a joke; not all humans are able to analyze humor as well as an LLM)
Sarcasm aside, once such systems really learn to lie, they will be all too human-like. Perhaps the defining quality of real intelligence is deception.
But as productivity increases, and as AI improves, in both cases individual greed holds back lifting up the many. And so we end up asking for caution on automating away someone's job, or caution on rapid AI progress.
Does anyone know any good writing on how humanity might fight its way through all these mires of progress to the other side - that science fiction world that may or may not even be possible? How the world might look as these things continue to progress over time? Either fiction or a serious analysis is fine.
Most sci-fi skips straight to "There is no more need for University, we simply ask the AI", missing the "students are using AI to cheat" phase entirely.
Some state may cross between individuals via education, but the individuals still must learn.
History shows that knowledge transmission remains a sticky wicket.
Humans learn things collectively via culture and cultural transmission has been an extremely effective tool of knowledge preservation over the generations.
Things are never an upward hockey stick but they also aren’t saw waves skirting a baseline.
Based on some of the shit my neighbors post online there is but a thin veneer on society that keeps them from doing it now.
Instead it's about how easily it can be used to generate plausible looking datasets that would confirm a hypothesis. It's a warning note to journals about how fake data can more easily be created.
I think the people that are good at faking data simply don't get caught.
Attacks only ever get better, not worse.
I chose the wrong field to be able to fake data /S.
Now, if only scientists and institutions would actually bother using those tools we developed centuries ago. Unfortunately if they don't - you don't exactly need chatgpt to fake data you know? Replication crisis etc etc.
Long story short: Man is it awesome that the scientific method is resilient to this! Too bad nobody uses it.
Apparently, we have a replication crisis. From what I hear, many papers can’t be replicated, and we don’t know, because no one tries.
> personalised for you
XD The joke writes itself.