Is it too late to keep global warming below 1.5 °C?
nature.com
nature.com
The UN currently warns that we will go to 3C at the current rate: https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/nov/20/world-fa...
Is this some kind of lobbyist think-tank article that 1.5C is still achievable? Citing IPCC reports is not funny anymore.
I remember last thread on the gas sequestration on HN ended with a uniform hate on the initiative, because it was proposed by the oil&gas corpos (sure, they are bad, but someone needs to at least start trying to capture and bury GH gasses). Oh well, guess our children will be happy with 490-500 ppm of CO2 in the atmosphere by 2100 and all the nice "green" energy around.
Alas, this comes 40 years too late. The oil and gas companies really kneecapped any action since the 1980ies with their FUD and denialism and sponsored attacks on climate scientists.
Acknowledging that it's a real thing would have been the correct first step. Instead, we're still deluged with the conspiracy theory that it's all a massive hoax.
People will resist draconian measures because most won't be alive to witness the worst of it anyway. Behavioral changes as well as tax/cost increases will not get us where we want to be with any speed.
Our only hope is technology and exponential progress. Many models assume a linear progress in their calculations, but sometimes a fly-wheel occurs where all of a sudden, everything happens all at once.
In my town (population: 10K), 10 years ago nobody had solar. 5 years ago, 5% had it. Now you won't see a roof without it. It's contagious. We need to make this go viral in a way that does not belittle or stress people, it should be seen as beneficial to the individual.
> Is it too late to keep global warming below 1.5 °C?
Seems like it, yeah
Outside of that it's not even worth discussing. I see everyday people with enough money to not have to work or do any kind of consuming activity burn more petrol in a week than some do in their lifetime. There is just no way out of that. The rich are the ones who should be responsible yet they are the least likely to comply, so it doesn't matter...
An emirate who's development wouldn't have been possible without the invention of air conditioning (and that's not a criticism).
It's kinda weird to picture representatives from the entire world discussing global warming in one of the warmest countries on earth, where basically the entire country runs on air conditioning.
We'll just continue business as usual and keep expanding our industrial base and the associated emissions until a magic technology appears and we're all saved.
I mean, that the plan, right?
Ok, I mean, maybe "no", if humankind disappear completely in a matter of weeks, or some significant part at least, to the point industrial civilization won’t be logistically possible anymore for at least a few centuries.
Otherwise my bet is we are collectively too dumb to overcome issues generated by our own technical advancements. I sincerely hope I’m wrong though.
Also, I don’t think there is really anything we can do that will make Earth completely inhabitable. Maybe unsustainable for any human, but surely life will go on still for a few [bm]illion years here in one form or an other. :D
Earth will be fine. Give or take a few million years and not much of mankind's adventurism will be left and the ecosystem will have restored itself.
It will just be the end of that whole "mankind" experiment.
These aren't reasons to not worry about what concerns us directly now.
> It will just be the end of that whole "mankind" experiment.
Even the universe shall come to standstill eventually, when the last moving photon will stop moving or something. Should we be nihilistic and do nothing because of that?
No, not at all. But let's be honest about the stakes. We don't need to save Earth for Earth's sake. We need to save Earth for our own sake.
This is not about tree-hugging and kumbaia-singing. This is about the survival of our global civilization.