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Comment by echelon | Hacker News Reader

One year.

All of Hollywood falls.

Every time something like this is released someone comments how it’s going to blow up legacy studios. The only way you can possibly think that is that: 1-the studios themselves will somehow be prevented from using this tech themselves, and 2-that somehow customers will suddenly become amenable to low grade garbage movies. Hollywood already produces thousands of low grade B or C movies every year that cost fractions of what it costs to make a blockbuster. Those movies make almost nothing at the box office.

If anything, a deluge of cheap AI generated movies is going to lead to a flight to quality. The big studios will be more powerful because they will reap the productivity gains and use traditional techniques to smooth out the rough edges.

> 2-that somehow customers will suddenly become amenable to low grade garbage movies

People have been amenable to low grade garbage movies for a long, long time. See Adam Sandler's back catalog.

No offense, but this is absolutely delusional.

As long as people can "clock" content generated from these models, it will be treated by consumers as low-effort drivel, no matter how much actual artistic effort goes in the exercise. Only once these systems push through the threshold of being indistinguishable from artistry will all hell break loose, and we are still very far from that.

Paint-by-numbers low-effort market-driven stuff will take a hit for sure, but that's only a portion of the market, and frankly not one I'm going to be missing.

Very far, yes, but also in a fast moving field.

CGI in films used to be obvious all the time no matter how good the artists using it, now it's everywhere and only noticeable when that's the point; the gap from Tron to Fellowship of the Ring was 19.5 years.

My guess is the analogy here puts the quality of existing genAI somewhere near the equivalent of early TV CGI, given its use in one of the Marvel title sequences etc., but it is just an analogy and there's no guarantees of anything either way.

something unrelated improved overtime so something else unrelated will also improve to whatever goal you've set in your mind

weird logic circles yall keep making to justify your beliefs, i mean the world is very easy like you just described if you completely strip all nuance and complexity

people used to believe at the start of the space race we'd have mars colonies by now because they looked at the rate of technological advancement from 1910 to 1970, from the first flight to landing on the moon; yet that didn't happen because everything doesn't follow the same repeatable patterns

People also believed that recorded music would destroy the player piano industry and the market for piano rolls. Just because recorded music is cheaper doesn't mean that the audience will be willing to give up the actual sound of a piano being played.

First, lotta artists already upset with genAI and the impact it has.

Second, I literally wrote the same point you seem to think is a gotcha:

> it is just an analogy and there's no guarantees of anything either way

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