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We barely understand the human brain, but sure we’re super close to AGI because we made chat bots that don’t completely suck anymore. It’s such hubris. Are the tools cool? Undoubtedly. But come down to earth for a second. People have lost all objectivity.

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I've been watching this whole hype cycle completely horrified from the sidelines. Those early debates right here on HN with people genuinely worried about an LLM developing conscience and taking control of the world. Senior SWEs fearing for their jobs. And now we're just throwing the term AGI around like it's imminent.

Objectively speaking, we’re talking exponential growth in both compute and capabilities year over year.

Do you have any data that shows that we’ll plateau any time soon?

Because if this trend continues, we’ll have superhuman levels of compute within 5 years.

I’m pretty sure you have no data showing we’re heading to AGI because “compute and capabilities” is about as nebulous as it gets. You can’t just throw CPU cycles to strong arm your way to a solution to a problem you barely understand to begin with.

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