And this can keep going.
A big pending change: if the solid state battery with 10 minute charge time works, gas stations can become charging stations. Pull out the pumps and tanks, put in the chargers, keep the islands and the convenience store. Charging stations now look like gas stations, not parking lots. Transitioning to BEV does not require new real estate.
By 2030-2035, people with gas cars will be looking at maps to find open gas stations.
With adoption already at 5%, that's a serious threat to gas station visits; imagine 10% fewer people stopping at a gas station a given week, or 20%. And this doesn't only apply to bevs, but to a smaller degree phevs too.
Service centers (fewer oil, brakes, coolant changes), dealerships (because engine and transmission failure decreases), and eventually auto parts stores will also see this volume of customers decrease.
Getting to 2030 is going to be wild.
Manufacturers will find new ways to break "your" stuff, unless regulation is put in place to prevent it.
You really don't need to even do that. You can put a charger at every parking lot in front of the convenience store (Already happening in a few locations around me).
But also, most charging (at least early on) will be happening at home. There really is no need to convert every gas station into a charging station. We just need major throughways covered. The one missing piece is L2 chargers, We need more of those installed in more locations. For example, employers could easily put them in office parking lots. With 8 hours to charge, you could even do L1 chargers.
There's no reason L2 chargers can't be profitable. We'll be better off solving that problem.
Government incentives and regulations are why every home has indoor plumbing and electricity. Those, I think, are widely seen as a good.
But to this, these things can absolutely be profitable. However, landlords may not want to take on the initial purchase price for fear that none of their tenants will use it or for dumber ideological reasons. A modest charge over the utility price would be all that's needed to indefinitely maintain these chargers.
EV charging companies will offer revenue sharing (if they aren't already) so that the apartment complex gets a cut every time a car is charged.
Prices will be marked up because only the apartment management company can offer the convenience of charging at home.
EV charging companies will offer revenue sharing (if they aren't already) so that the apartment complex gets a cut every time a car is charged."
Yes, this is exactly how it works at my (sort of) condo.
Once charging drops below 10 minutes, it's all about throughput. You don't want people clogging the charging units. You want to get them in and out. Revenue per charging unit, that's what it's all about.
That's a wild statement. Not everyone replaces their vehicles every year. Some people drive a car for 10-20 (+) years before ditching it. There will assuredly still be plenty of open gas stations in 2035.
2035 is a long time away. iPhone was released 16 years ago and the world changed within the next decade.
When cheap cars and trucks really arrive the primary limit will be supply. ~nobody uses feature phones anymore. Electric vehicles could well be like that once we get real scale, and especially in countries that don’t currently have very high car ownership because they won’t be defending the old regime. Countries that embrace and accelerate this change will receive the most economic benefits.
But if the car is likely to plunge in value, I might choose to move faster to offload it. People will either do that or keep it until it dies. Enthusiastic countries will accelerate the process by increasing taxes on older vehicles.
Expecting a similar transition period is extremely naive.
With the number of cheap (mostly chinese) BEV’s available now and coming in the pipeline we’re already seeing some very cost competitive propositions.
I think that point is very close, maybe mid-next year if all goes well.
Places lake motorway service stations where people will supercharge will do just fine, but your local gas station will have to compete will home chargers, parking lot chargers, etc. Not a lot of people will choose to shop at an expensive gas station shop if they don’t have to.
Selling gas is hugely profitable, labor cost for dispensing gas is zero. It's why legacy c-store operators like 7-11 and Wawa now include gas at almost all new locations they build.
Gas stations make about 10 cents per gallon gross profit on the gas pumped. That's before capital equipment depreciation, equipment maintenance, facilities staff, cleaning, etc.
It's profitable, but it produces a minority of the business's profit. The bulk of the profit is from higher margin snacks, drinks, alcohol, cigarettes, lottery, etc.
A switch from gas to electric is not going to affect most convenience stores.
According to 7-11, 39.75 cents per gallon in first half of 2022. Also, while same-store merch sales grew 4.9% y-o-y, gas gallons sold grew 44%. (page 25 of the link)
https://issuu.com/avantimag/docs/avanti_sept_oct_2022_final
> 7-11 and Wawa have been serving gas since as long as I can remember.
You must be young, Wawa was not traditionally a gas station. It opened its first store in 1964 and had over 500 by 1992, but the first with gas was in 1996.
7-11's history and relationship with gas is more complex, but most legacy stores were freestanding store only (no gas).
https://www.burlingtoncountytimes.com/story/business/2014/04...
2037-38 seems like a reasonable estimate for ICE vehicle market becoming smaller than EV, and all the accompanying things that go with it, like disappearing gas stations and more and more restrictions on ICE vehicles (e.g. city centers, commercial sales only, etc.)
If the diesel transition takes time, I think the gas pumps will also stay along the major truck routes, but one might feel like a NG fuel user looking for an airport station in regions with a lot of urban density.
(Even without these pressures, an EV is already 1/3 the price to operate so that pushes ICEs toward infrequent users which accelerates the downward spiral of gas stations and gas consumers.)
I am not sure of this at all. At the very least, we can bet by that timeframe the number of gas stations will be going down. Why? For the same reason I don't have a Boston Market or Pei Wei near me any more. Because capitalism.
Investors will not necessarily wait for even 50% of the cars on the road to be electric before they start pulling their money out of gas stations. And especially because most stations make very little at the pump anyway -- they make most of their money in the attached convenience store. I don't know how long pumps and underground tanks last, but I would expect that by 2030 some stations will be opting out of replacing warn out pump equipment. And I expect this to start in neighborhood stations in wealthy areas first, where EV adoption and land value are both high.
I expect the change to EVs will follow a similar path, and in ten years there will be "experts" looking back saying "It's unprecedented - we NEVER could have predicted this!".
Gasoline vehicles will become more expensive to maintain and run, and more of a hassle to refuel, so even people like me who like to keep their cars for ages will be forced to switch a lot earlier than normal - especially if you live in the city.
These already exist for large trucks, buses, vans and so on. They are just starting to be introduced for the oldest diesel cars.
film development, pay phones, radio stations, record stores, video rental, etc...
And sadly, as older cars majority areas will reflect economic status and local crime, service deserts are more likely to develop.
I drive a 20 year old ice.
Once the EV market share hits something like 50% (middle of next decade, ish), petrol business will be down much more than 50% from today. Many petrol stations will have disappeared. Most commercial fleets will be close to 100% electric at that point (or striving to be). Most long distance road travel will be electric. Because it's vastly cheaper than anything else at that point. Any heavy road users will switch sooner rather than later because of the cost benefits from going electric. As soon as they can basically.
EVs will be over represented in miles driven collectively. As in, people might still own ICE vehicles but they would not be driving them a lot as that would be costly. And hence not use as much fuel.
I'm already doing that now for true Diesel #2 in SoCal with my '15 VW GSW TDI SEL. Diesel was always hit-and-miss being at about a third of stations, but now it seems like two-thirds of the stations which had Diesel #2 converted to some B20-B50 variant or even R99.
I wonder how many diesel fuel systems are getting absolutely pwned by ignorant owners putting high(er) biodiesel content fuel in contact with gaskets which will swell and fail once the owners switch back to Diesel #2...