Amazon cuts 'several hundred' jobs in Alexa division
cnbc.com
cnbc.com
I created the AI suggestion chip at Google, which combined with an internal project called Jane, became the Google Assistant. At the time Sundar was desperate for a narrative to counter Alexa in front of investors and wanted a HUGE I/O announcement, so off we sprinted.
But I went to the executives at the time in charge and said look, this really isn't going to be an assistant if it doesn't have the APIs into services that users need to accomplish actual tasks. Sharing some information and changing the music isn't what a butler does, a butler anticipates your needs and executes on them -- and we can't do that until we have the APIs to anticipate and execute.
I was, of course, ignored, because in my naiveness at the time and I didn't realize it didn't matter what the assistant DID, it mattered what the narrative to investors was about its potential. So 2017 I/O Sundar announces the assistant and it looks great inside Allo, and it's a great demo -- mission accomplished.
Now 6 years+ later, it's a stagnant, overspent team across the space -- because why? Because it can't do anything for users. All these years and billions later it still can't do anything important -- it has no user journey.
And it took me equally as long to realize, that still doesn't matter. FAANG has gotten so large that the stock bump that comes from narrative outpaces actual revenue from working products. It makes for a crazy world... because ironically Google ALSO invented the truly disruptive transformer technology behind the LLM and when we tried to launch that with MINA, Sundar blocked it! Too disruptive, no narrative, too scary...
I don't know the lesson to be learned here, but wow, it just makes me want to give up...
Nearly a decade later, when I say "turn off the music", it'll pause Netflix on the TV I'm actively watching (and talking to it through) while the speaker in the other room keeps playing music. Or if you ask it turn off the light, the whole house goes dark.
I don't need it to read minds, but it sure would've been nice for it to understand the difference between a TV, a music speaker, and a light bulb.
I don't know how Google works (or doesn't, apparently), but I often wished they just sat down with a few interns and manually went through the top 100 most used commands and made manual command chains for them.
The assistants are annoying not because they're not AGI enough, but because they can't reliably do the simple tasks that we actually want to offload to them...
We have a ton of devices connected to Alexa and HomeKit via Home Assistant. We mostly interact with Alexa through our Sonos system.
I want to throw Alexa out the goddamn window every other week, especially when I ask it to turn off a very specific room, and it responds "which device?" Despite parsing my query perfectly.
"You can also..."
It seems that companies don't have to do anything anymore--they just have to spin a story for Wall Street and make sure they lap it up.
(for what it's worth, I do think LLMs are useful for certain tasks, but it's ridiculous that every company is pivoting to be an "AI company" for no real reason...)
Sundar is an awful CEO, that's the lesson. That's the problem there. He exhibits no leadership abilities or vision. He's extremely weak. He's essentially the anti-Jobs.
He got where he is by being diplomatic and not stepping on anyone's toes. No surprise he would continue behaving that way in the job.
That goes for Amazon as well imo. They are another company that won about as much as anyone can but has refused to move past the startup mentality and irrational promises of growth. It's going to get them both burned.
Microsoft is the only company that has really handled this well but that's probably got something to do with them getting in antitrust trouble back in the day, when they were behaving much more like a Google or an Amazon.
A friend of mine who worked at Microsoft in the 90s told me that Gates lamented in a meeting that nobody was coming up with new ideas on how to leverage their expertise and make money.
If only they knew !!!
That it's the people who say the "right" things that win at life, not the people who study hard and try to make an actual difference. Maya Angelou said it best - she was trying to be inspirational, but it's actually depressing as hell for anybody who thought hard work would get them ahead: "People will forget what you said, they'll forget what you did, but they'll never forget how you made them feel".
1) Saying the “right” things does not work in the long run because people want results. Also, if the “right” things are not true, they will notice, and there are usually consequences.
2) I think May Angelou is right that people remember how you make them feel. I also think they remember people’s actions and statements. A good example of this is Google itself. People eventually figured out that the “do no evil” moto was bullshit. They also figured out that when Google said something, you should be skeptical because of Google’s track record of canceling products.
That's another manifestation of the Labor Theory of Value, where what something is worth is proportional to the amount of labor that went into it.
This is false. Value is only tangentially related to the labor input. Just because you work hard creating a song doesn't mean people will like the song and pay $$ for it.
Working smart is what matters. By that I mean working at creating things people want.
IMO what dooms assistants is the competition on who owns the top of the funnel and how that limits what APIs software/hardware services that are exposed to third parties from hardware from LG, Samsung, Sony, etc. The Google Assistant or Alexa is useless controlling the TV if it is only allowed to turn it on or off. I couldn't care at all about the Samsung assistant universe if all I had from them is a TV, but I do want to control it with Alexa or Google.
Maybe Matter[1] will matter in the long run, but is a little late for the momentum/size the assistant teams in any company had years ago to build these things out.
So I built their Business Messaging program to try to get access to those apis.
What took me too long to discover is that an API market of 100% confirmed conversions will be worthy less than an intent market with a 10% or 1% chance. Because you can show more ads across the intent market that aggregates to more revenue than a 100% confirmed transaction being auctioned off. (Specifically because an ad can’t go for more than the cost of the transaction of course, but multiple ads can)
TLDR. Google became the same as the newspaper ads they disrupted. Making more money off the failure of their ads to convert than their successful ones.
Anyway, I had a neat display showing live nodes as green. I was redirected to enhance that display with graphs and charts and linking the nodes, we bought a TV to display it on... long story short, it was more important to show this awesome graphic tool to potential investors then to know whether our systems were actually down.
Some things never change.
Microsoft didn't invent the PC, but they knew how to make money off of it.
Lotus didn't invent the spreadsheet, but they knew how to make money off of it.
Apple didn't invent the cell phone, but they knew how to make money off of it.
Boeing didn't invent the jet airliner, but they knew how to make money off of it.
Its like they always say: the road to Hell is paved with good intentions.
Its good that you recognize the problem. Welcome to the other side. That just makes you more intelligent and ready for the next event. If you know what is moral and just, and if you have the capabilities to see the future thanks to your experience... you now know how to handle these events in the future.
For now, support the rise of interest rates and ignore the cries of the SV elite to have the Fed cut rates back down. We all know that crappy projects make less sense when money costs 5.25% / year rather than the 0%/year it cost throughout the 2010s decade.
Beyond that? Hard to say. Depends where things go.
I can tell Alexa to "turn off my bedroom light", I can't tell it to "turn off my Livingroom light", but if I tell it to "turn off my bedroom AND my living room light", then it doesn't understand it. Alexa is as bad as the voice dialing systems from cars of 15 years ago.
What have all those researchers and developers at Alexa been doing all those years that the bloody thing can't understand basic command chaining?
You can ask to "turn off all of the lights" - but "all of the lights" or "all of them" isn't a valid response once you're into the question-and-answer phase, at least not reliably for me.
I rapidly discovered there were so many common ways to express the same thing in English, that trying to enumerate them was impossible. At least impossible on a PDP-10.
"All of them" and "both" should be enough to cover most users and not put big pressure on Amazons datacenters and yet Alexa can't even get that right.
Works for me in response
All of those folks were trying to figure out how to have Alexa make money, and my interpretation of the layoffs is they never figured out how.
How can you expect to sell this device knowing how bad and limited it is?
Hacker news keeps repeating that the product doesn’t work or is broken or whatever, but it’s a hit. Millions of people use it daily.
If it's the latter then you probably don't need to keep thousands of highly paid engineers since that's what Alexa could also do 10 years ago and what vehicle voice commands could do 15 years ago without internet connection and expensive data centers. Drops mic
Also, Alexa works better than any car control ever has, and at a fraction of the price. You obviously need internet connectivity for the majority of features people care about. Like controlling devices over the network, getting weather, streaming music, etc
It’s just hard to charge for something that used to be free.
I can ask chatGPT right now "What would you do if asked to make a stop at a gas station on the current navigation route" and it gives a sensible answer (in this case "i can't add a stop to your navigation"). So it's clearly possible for modern AI to work with this sort of context. They just need to integrate modern AI with voice assistants and add appropriate application hooks the AI can act upon everywhere asap.
This also makes layoffs in voice chat departments stupid. They are on the verge of a revolution. Everything stated here as a weakness of voice assistants is about to be solved.
The context recognition is there sure. But teams working on old models of context recognition (more hardcoded methods) are still engineers and there's a need to throw engineers at this to be first.
Imagine saying in winter "Make my living room feel like a summer beach party" leading to blinds up + lights on with yellow hue + heat + ambient beach music turning on. That needs hooks into every first and third party home automation system. It needs the ability to choose specific genres of music on a playlist. etc. There's so much work to do and it needs to be done before the competitors. Firing engineers, even when they would need to pivot to achieve this doesn't make sense to me as this is one of those winner takes all technology races. You really really want to be the first to set the standard for how third parties integrate these hooks.
It's an iPhone moment in the making and Amazon is firing staff.
It might just be my expectations were always that it would get better, and it hasn't. Or that I know they laid people off, so knowing that I expect it to get worse.
I'd switch but everyone I know with a Google setup has trouble with theirs. And we have some Apple devices so we know Siri isn't great either.
Kids love it.. the "Alexa fart for me" is the best implemented part of it.
However, further resting revealed that I need to stress the "and" and have a little of a pause before it so that Alexa understands that "and" means an additional command and isn't just part of "living room." However, even is situations where Alexa didn't recognize the "and" part of the command it still turned on the living room lights...
Being Apple, I'm sure they are trying to do everything from scratch "better," but I think they could have already improved on Siri with Whisper, an open source LLM and some TTS out of the box.
Did they though? Do we know how much Google and Amazon spend on these devices?
Apple may have won the first battle by "not fighting" but the next battle is a race to make these dumb assistants smart.
Amazon seems to be the possible long term winner, as they don't make phones and still got millions to buy their "dumb speaker" when they (consumers) already had one in their pocket!
I don’t know if I agree that Amazon will be the long term winner either. I see your logic, but Apple also has a speaker and a phone. The HomePod doesn’t have the same market share, but it’s still a sizable market (>20%).
IMO Google should have been the clear winner, but they will probably be the loser. They had cheap and varied hardware, they had phones, they had APIs and features like Alexa. But Google can’t seem to stop being Google, and of course GAssistant leadership has absolutely no focus or consistency roadmap. Perhaps tellingly they’re giving up on cloud “skills” and focusing on android.
https://www.geekwire.com/2023/amazon-will-cut-several-hundre...
https://www.statista.com/chart/29167/smart-speaker-ownership...
"OpenAI and Jony Ive in talks to raise $1bn from SoftBank for AI device venture"
https://www.ft.com/content/4c64ffc1-f57b-4e22-a4a5-f9f90a741...
I could imagine doing that myself, but the voice interface seemed so clumsy and a little scary that I never got over the hump of trying it. There are things that we would routinely buy on Amazon without any real comparison after the, for example, 10th time we've bought them -- but we still never buy them on Alexa.
I agree fully, though: Alexa never became reliable enough for me (or many others) to trust it with a credit card. A voice assistant that constantly mishears things in the small domain in which I do trust it can't be trusted to pick the right thing out of Amazon's entire catalog.
I had seen market research a few years ago that basically said people don’t like buying this via voice without seeing an explicit bill/numbers on screen. That was around the time they announced the devices with a screen.
I was pleased to discover it finally figured out just last week how to give me my preferred news source when I accidentally say "Alexa news" instead of "Alexa news from..."
This is the part you’re underestimating. The language->intent stuff is not solved but it’s long been “good enough” for basic tasks. The long-tail of integrating with other services is hard and not improved by better AI (unless you have some clever new ideas).
Maintaining the actual logic that lets Alexa talk to hundreds of APIs is very human-intense even if it’s not hard.
Clearly the problem was that Alexa was taking too much space/runtime, thereby inhibiting profit.
Amazon, Apple and Google are all working on incorporating LLMs but why is it taking so long? Why are these assistants still so bad? ChatGPT has been available for a year, GPT3 API for 3 years. I suspect some of it is legacy tech and legacy researchers from the pre-LLM era.
Then you have all the usual generative issues: hallucinations, alignment, sticking within guardrails, no repeatable testing, drift. The potential for errors at that scale is pretty staggering.
Step 2: expose a little less broken search via voice assistants.
Step 3: realize you recreated Yahoo-era "web surfers" feeding a search engine index.
Step 4: fire everyone and automate with LLM
Step 5: Keep making search broken.
- Playing music - Playing audiobooks - Telling the time - Setting timers for cooking. - Giving the day's weather.
Alexa beats Google solidly in kid-friendly material.
I subscribe to the Amazon PrimeFancyMusic thing, and that works well for my Echo Studio.
I would agree that a GPT driven voice controlled system might be great.
What I would actually prefer would be a speaker system that I could drive with a command line tool _or_ voice. Arguably, a tidy enough installation on a RPi Zero connected to a dumb speaker would be sufficient for the CLI...
A "smart" speaker that simply did the above 5 tasks reliably and was driven off of music/audiobook subscriptions would be fantastic. It wouldn't shoot for the moon, but it would be a workhorse.
What is pretty great is the kindle, my current gen kindle (the one with the large screen and the warm light) I cherish.
Indeed ChatGPT is now achieving something close to what "Computer" used to do in the Enterprise bridge 30 years ago.
Did all kinds of debugging but after an hour I just packed it back in its box and put it away.
Google stuff "just worked", never had to wrestle with it to such an extent.
The breaking changes in HA are out of control, every release is a dozen or more - a good chance at least one integration you use will have a breaking change every time you update.
If you wait too long to upgrade it’ll just implode.