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Comment by mtkd | Hacker News Reader

The full impact of a recession for a couple of quarters is usually not felt until several years later.

What we're seeing with Nokia, BestBuy etc. is the companies that didn't adapt facing extinction. It should be happening to more - but they're being propped up artificially - that can't be sustained indefinitely.

If you think the valuation for Instagram was wild - look at their metric trends against these monoliths.

"but Instagram don't make anything" - in the western world we don't really need to consume physical products so much any more - I've got 5+ TVs in the house and 3 fridges - our consumption is moving to non-physical products.

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Isn't the problem more "but Instagram don't sell anything".

Bestbuy and Nokia are facing very different problems. For Nokia, the market's there and even speeding up because of tight upgrade schedule, it's just they failed to move on smart phones for too long and are playing catchup. For Bestbuy, computers, routers, printers, etc. are reaching saturation and the things that aren't, the iPads and Kindles, their margins will be razor thin because people are buying the brand, not the generic product. Maybe I'm wrong, but if you were Apple would you give Bestbuy anything more than scraps?

I think the OP wanted to highlight that people are consuming the OS (Android and iOS) and not the phone itself. That's why Samsung sales skyrocketed.

Nokia did adapt, it made one hell of a move backed by lots of Microsoft and AT&T cash for promotions and had /has a special relationship with Microsoft. Their native OS was no where near ready and being another Android phone maker wasn't appealing (Other than Samsung, is anyone else making money on Android?).

Sometimes, it just doesn't work out.

Other than Samsung, is anyone else making money on Android?

HTC? Somehow the myth that HTC is losing money has become a meme, when actually HTC is doing gangbusters, just not as handsomely as they did before Samsung started soaking up Apple-like profits. I suspect HTC will do quite well on the backs of the One X and One S.

Motorola would have long been a gravestone if not for Android. So would have SE and LG.

Most reviews of the last Symbian phone saw it as a quickly evolving, credible device. Elop seemed to give up right when it was coming to fruition.

You are right on HTC, they still made a respectable profit last quarter ($150mm.) A couple of their earnings warnings must have started the meme, I fell for it http://news.cnet.com/8301-1035_3-57410404-94/htc-earnings-sa... It remains to be seen if earnings hold up though, as they are essentially just another phone make for Google.

Elop could have done a few Android lines to hold the decline while working on the Symbian at the same time, I agree. But then any promotion and development would have been borne by Nokia. Granted they'd own Symbian but it's worth would have been questionable (see WebOS as one possibility.)

If it doesn't work people will question the wisdom but, IMO, going with Windows was a good bet given the circumstances. I am rooting for them and for lots of Android and WebOS forks.

I like Nokia, I like their products and the fact that they did a totally new design for Lumnia, when cloning is fashionable today. If you look around Youtube you will see videos of their phone surviving falls, run over by cars, submerging in water etc.

If they fail with MS, which seems to be it's fate, in retrospect it would have been a bad bet.

They chose the easier route, given that Windows Phone 7 wasn't ready for prime time either, and sat out of an emerging handset segment for years and for this they will pay dearly. They have to build themselves as a brand in the new smartphone market, a game that seems to be already taken. IMHO, short of a major innovation from Nokia in the near future, their smartphone business will go the way of the Blackberry; I have no idea is they will still want to keeps their low end models after the dust settles.

Nokia quite simply didn't have the technology to compete -- Symbian isn't up to the task their Linux offerings needed to be solid about 4 years ago to be relevant now. I'm not sure they sat out, they just didn't get it to together.

I think if they fail with MS, they would have failed with every other option as well. MS is the best option but it is perhaps much too late.

"Their native OS was no where near ready"

By that, I suppose you mean Meego.

I have recently used a N9 phone running Meego for a couple of hours and it was a real pleasure. In many regards it's better than Android has been until recently. It's snappy and looks well finished although look-wise there's work to make it compelling.

It's not really fair to give any real feedback on such a short utilization span but I wouldn't say the OS is "nowhere near ready".

Had they spent the same effort on Meego rather than on integrating the Windows OS, they would have a very, very good OS.

With Qt, they would also have very good technical fundation for developpers. Love or hate it, Qt programmers are very loyal to the library and praise it. With its ease of use, it could have been a developper-frendly platform.

I'd write a Qt app over a Dalvic-Java or Obj-C one anyday.

What I'd like to note on this story is that most tech writers feared that if Nokia didn't take this path, they would be shamed and welcomed their move. Now, given the sales both Microsoft and Nokia are shamed for taking this path.

I agree. I've been using the N9 since its release and I think Meego is very close to being consumer-ready. Great UI, fast, stable, great built-in software. Some built-in software lacks some features, it doesn't quite have the tweakability Maemo had and there are a few bugs and shortcomings here and there. But considering the small market the N9 was deployed in, one can only wonder what it could have been if it had gotten more attention from Nokia.

I was an N900 user before that. I hoped Nokia would be a shining beacon in the mobile space, with an open operating system and a more GNU/Linux software stack than just the kernel. But those hopes were shattered by Elop's turn. I guess Microsoft will continue to drive Nokia's market price further into the ground so they can buy them for a few pennies.

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