SpaceX Starship/Super Heavy OFT-2 Launch Authorized
faa.gov
faa.gov
> The liftoff is set to occur Friday (Nov. 17) from Starbase, a SpaceX facility in South Texas, during a two-hour window that opens at 8 a.m. EST (1300 GMT; 7 a.m. local time in Texas).
2-4am in NZ. Don't think I'll be staying up.
You posted the comment @1700131083 (2023-11-16T10:38:03Z) (see https://hacker-news.firebaseio.com/v0/item/38287917.json?pri...) and the start will be @1700226000 (2023-11-17T13:00:00Z)
1700226000 - 1700131083 = 94917 seconds = 26.36583333... hours → 1 day 2 hour 21 minutes 57 seconds
http://www.worldtimebuddy.com/event?lid=5&h=5&sts=28336620&s...
> 7 a.m. local time in Texas
[0] https://www.spacex.com/launches/mission/?missionId=starship-...
"Send crypto to Elon now, it will change your life"
I made it out to South Padre for the first launch attempt but couldn't stay for the 3 day delay so I missed that one too.
Next launch I'm just going to put in for PTO for the whole week and go camp at Isla Blanca, I really want the kids and I to experience a sky scraper being blasted into space up close and personal.
Federal agencies aren't inclined to grant launch licenses based on an IOU of "we promise it'll be fixed soon", and rightly so. Fix, apply, receive license, in that order.
That said, I don't disagree that the possibility that Starship might simply not be possible makes this all the more intriguing! On the other hand, it's difficult to think of any physical reason why it shouldn't be!
Now that he is finally out, let's hope the new CEO will put back Blue Origin on the right track. So many years lost !
[1] https://arstechnica.com/space/2023/09/bob-smith-is-finally-g...
The only way SpaceX is going to move forward is becoming more ambitious with a new project.
The risk isn't that if the Starship doesn't work, but that the R&D time takes too long or too much money to complete.
Well to be fair, there’s a lot of technology at spacex no one else has. One example, the Raptor engine’s combination of size, efficiency, and thrust is just not available to anyone other than SpaceX. Even if exact schematics were stolen you’d still need to obtain the recipes for the alloys used and how to manufacture them. Companies gave up on full flow staged combustion as just not feasible but SpaceX figured it out and is on v3 of perfecting it.
What's happening is that other companies are slow to wake up and adapt.
I think most other organizations have a lot more bureaucracy involved in making changes, which makes them slower and more expensive.
Plus, SpaceX doesn't try to spread out its operations across the US to act like a jobs program, while the other big space contractors have advertised their presence in every state as a reason they should be picked, which obviously increases costs.
So when someone comes along that optimizes on cost and velocity and eschews cost plus contracts, that can be very difficult to deal with.
Also, as other people have mentioned, they pretty clearly do have exceptional tech - they routinely land orbital class boosters which has only been done with prototype rockets (it's very different landing when you can hover vs when you can't). And Raptor and Merlin are among the best rocket engines that have ever been made.
And even more impressive than specific components is their production and operational expertise. Being able to launch so many rockets flawlessly is a truly astounding feat. In a couple of years, Falcon 9 might even beat out the RD-108/107's total accumulated flight time record, which I thought wouldn't happen for a very long time.
Edit: for context, the RD-108/107 are the engines used on the Soyuz, which (as a family) has a truly astounding number of flights. To be fair to SpaceX, though, Soyuz accumulated those over many decades.
Hell, he got in trouble for false statements about Tesla, which is publicly held.
Elon's stated position on an IPO is that they'll wait until they can predict cashflow reasonably well.
Edit: Also, to be precise, she said they had made a profit in Q4 2022. So, it could just be referring to the costs vs income of that quarter specifically rather than a general statement that Starlink is in the green now. After all, since then they've upped their flight rate significantly.
They also need to launch more satellites to increase capacity and add most customers. The big question is how many potential customers are out there, and if they will be enough to maintain the network.
I'd bet that SpaceX has some huge loans and/or bonds issues outstanding, based on future StarLink revenues. There isn't that much revenue from their other sources, and "build out the network, collect the monthly fees" is the sort of business model that banks and bond investors love.
They also had Tesla to bail out SolarCity after SpaceX basically used NASA to buy their bonds and prop them up, which wasn't enough and they were about to fail.
It is a different category of risk, though, with a different perception bias.
For an analogy: becoming obese is probably more risky than BASE jumping, as the diseases that come with being too fat are horrible. But people don't perceive those two risks in the same way.
The really disappointing thing about the latest crop of rockets (Vulcan, Ariane 6) is that they are not competitive with Falcon 9 for LEO missions and don't out perform it for GTO launches.
The upcoming batch of partially reusable rockets (New Glenn, Neutron, and Terran R) have a better shot, but word on the street is that New Glenn took the Shuttle strategy of being an expensive rocket and relying on reuse to get the per-launch cost down to a reasonable level; I'm unconvinced that that's a good strategy - it certainly didn't work well for the Shuttle. Especially since landing rocket boosters was pretty unreliable for SpaceX for quite a while.
And Neutron and Terran R are far enough out that it's very possible for Starship to come on line before they're ready.
I think that's really underselling the technical difficulty of the project (Full Flow Staged Combustion has never worked before in a meaningful sense) and the innovation (The belly flop maneuver isn't an obvious thing to do with a rocket). It feels a lot more obvious after the first Starhopper flight was such a success, but all successful things do in retrospect.
SLS can theoretically launch 100T to LEO. Starship can theoretically launch 150T reusable, 250T expendable. Construction rate is already on the order of around one per month, although obviously they are working out issues with the launch infrastructure to actually be able to make that many launch attempts.
That depends on your design and if you need experimentally derived inputs
When half your components have decades of reliability under their belt of course it’s easier to have a successful first launch.
If your development methodology results in a product that is unsustainable to launch due to costs and scalability, that absolutely seems relevant to whether that methodology was successful.
SLS is going to be tossing four RS-25 engines per launch (with *each* engine costing the same as ~2-3 entire Falcon 9 launches) into the ocean as the planned course of action. That is by design - and not some accident during a test flight.
Sure, RS-25s were designed to be reusable. But it's not like they were being used for anything; they were just hanging out in a warehouse since the Shuttle days. If NASA was going to put them in a museum or something it would have already happened.
At least this way, they get used for what they were designed for.
That sounds like a short version of an argument "nothing can happen for the first time, ever, because someone else would have done it". Which is obviously nonsense.
Also, this is not about technology per se. Why would anyone else build Starship first? People and organizations have objectives, including space organizations, and most of these objectives are perfectly solved by existing rockets.
Musk is obsessed with making life multiplanetary, and that is a goal that cannot be achieved without high-turnover, cheap, reliable rockets. Given that he has money for that, he can afford making a high-risk bet on developing such a rocket. But NASA or Roskosmos or any other organization don't share that goal; they are happy launching satellites and astronauts to the ISS, and that can well be done without a decade-long project whose potential failure would be hard to explain to the taxpayers.
Starship is intended for use cases that no one before even seriously entertained, much less was willing to finance.
This reminds me of the two economists out walking who find what looks like a dollar bill on the sidewalk. One is about to pick it up when the other says "If the dollar bill were really there, someone would have picked it up already".
Joking aside, you can apply the same "someone would have done it already" logic to landing used boosters and reusing them repeatedly. Reusability has been thought about in rocketry/space travel since before orbital flight was possible; every pre-1957 science-fiction story about spaceships assumed that they could be used repeatedly. Von Braun's hugely influential 1950s articles about spaceflight assumed that reusable winged boosters would launch his reusable winged ferry rocket shuttles. And yet, no one tried to land a booster this way until SpaceX, 60 years after the first orbital launch.