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Yes I also only find people to be credible if they have a solid track record of magically predicting events 2 to 5 years in the future.

That's the only way I'd find people credible when they're claiming they can predict 2 to 5 years in the future from now.

If they couldn't see ChatGPT coming, I'm not convinced of the whole "it'll never be able to..." spiel.

you should give it a try to be honest. metaculus.com