https://www.abc.net.au/news/programs/the-business/2023-11-06...
I kinda think if you want honest appraisals of the Australia/China relationship you'd probably want to look at domestic Australia sources when compared to the wsj.
But you can’t deny that there is probably some lasting damage if not with financials then at the very least with reputation for these private companies that now find themselves in some awkward positions with suppliers and import/export regulations.
Feel free to summarize the video if you’d like I don’t have a pessimistic outlook on the whole thing, I just think that China has their fingers in too many pies right now if you catch my drift.
When ScoMo called for the Covid investigation back in 2020, China responded with a raft of tariffs which seemed designed to incur maximum political pain for domestic Australian politicians. And while some industries found new markets for their products, others were left holding the bag domestically. Wine and rock lobsters are good examples of this.*
AFR report on rock lobster woes from last year https://www.afr.com/companies/agriculture/lobster-will-be-ch...
The Guardian article on the Australian wine glut from Sept this year https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/sep/18/austr...
And while I do acknowledge that the relationships have been damaged, I also recognise these specific industries have been taking an absolute bath financially from this now gone export market. Australian businesses have bore the financial brunt of these decisions, not the Chinese.
Australians have experience logistically with the Chinese market, contacts on the ground, and the desire to move product that historically has sold very well into that market. And when faced with continued financial pain due to a lack new markets being developed (come to find out that's quite hard for some things like wine and lobster) I suspect these industries will welcome the return of exports to China with open arms, primarily as they're probably on life support as I type this and desperately need those free cash flows for solvency.
* I live in Perth, Western Australia, safe to say "we've" been talking about this issue pretty much since the tariffs were announced
* bulk raw materials: iron ore, thermal coal, other minerals, etc
* (rock lobster, wines)^N - AKA aspirational middle class foreign luxuries
The raw materials are lifeblood to China and not easily replaced, they are inputs to Chinese industry and generate wealth for China after processing, sale and export in addition to providing infrastructure for growth.
The fancy goods for the chinese middle class is not a small market either; demographically China now has a middle class with disposable income that is larger than the entire population (all classes) of the USofA.
This is not the Red China the McCarthy era foaming anti communists warned us about, this is a country within another country that wants fine fibre merino wool suits, ethical cotton, nearly organic wheat, hand massaged beef, etc.
As much as the Xi faction enjoyed dropping the hammer on fine goods from Australia as payback for ScoMo rushing in with ill considerd comments from his National Party cheer squad they also faced some push back at home from disgruntled chinese consumers.
The demand is still there for the fine goods, once the political gates drop a little the spice will flow again.
I would be interested to see some economic figures on the list 3 years for these industries as I’m sure the initial hit did not feel good but has there been momentum for new countries that are importing these goods? We all know China pays a premium and takes in some serious tonnage but will working with these other countries eventually match that prosperity? If not directly, then indirectly by helping industry boom across new countries?
Genuinely curious on your thoughts, I’m more talking about raw iron ore, coal, etc. here but it would be nice if there could be the development of a middle class in India or Vietnam for example that enjoyed fine Australian lobster and wine on the regular.