The first commercial carbon-sucking facility in the US opens in California
bloomberg.com
bloomberg.com
People are literally celebrating a net positive carbon activity like they’ve accomplished something.
They’ve also been releasing it back into the atmosphere for free since the end of the Carboniferous.
The world emissions per capita are presently around 5T per year, per capita. The world has 5 billion hectares (out of 13B total) of agricultural land in general, overall (and generally if land _could_ be used for agriculture it _is_ used for agriculture), so generally, there's not a tonne of space to do lots of carbon sequestering quickly with agriculture, especially as you'd need to move the carbon you've created somewhere else.
The moral is that if you can ever get sequestering carbon down such that you can sequester 1 tonne of carbon for 20MWh power, you're close to a major winner, at least in all the deserts where you clearly can't grow bamboo but can grow solar, because at that point your cost of operations is just cost of infra. That startup thinks it can get down to around 1MWh/tonne, which is comparatively awesome!
My conclusion (before getting to something super scientific) was that if you want to rely on trees and swamps for your carbon capture, you basically end up with massive geopolitical issues because you need to cover most of the world in trees and swamps, but most of the world's land is already used to grow food. Meanwhile, carbon capture can work in areas where land is not (as) valuable.
If they are able to get to $50/tonne, that implies 1MWh/tonne, so that's about 500 tonnes/year per hectare. That'd mean that if you covered arizona in solar panels, you'd be sequestering 1/5 of human carbon output. Whereas if you grew bamboo, you'd cover the contiguous US for the same output.
Do I believe them? No. But even 10x worse is cheap enough to change the world.
In the same way we celebrate EV and PV production, even though those may still be carbon-positive at the outset. Especially when they were still in prototyping.
https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/lifeti...
https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/when-d...
> Based on a series of assumptions, the data showed that a Tesla Model 3 in the United States, for example, would need to be driven for 13,500 miles (21,725 km) before it does less harm to the environment than a Toyota Corolla.
> The model was developed by the Argonne National Laboratory in Chicago and includes thousands of parameters from the type metals in an electric vehicle (EV) battery to the amount of aluminium or plastic in a car.
> Argonne's Greenhouse Gases, Regulated Emissions and Energy Use in Technologies (GREET) model is now being used with other tools to help shape policy at the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and the California Air Resources Board, the two main regulators of vehicle emissions in the United States.
> Jarod Cory Kelly, principal energy systems analyst at Argonne, said making EVs generates more carbon than combustion engine cars, mainly due to the extraction and processing of minerals in EV batteries and production of the power cells.
TLDR ~1-2 years of driving, more upfront carbon emissions in manufacturing EVs but lower lifetime emissions overall.
PV:
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S09218... ("Implications of Trends in Energy Return on Energy Invested (EROI) for Transitioning to Renewable Electricity")
> Recent papers argue that the energy return on energy invested (EROI) for renewable electricity technologies and systems may be so low that the transition from fossil fuelled to renewable electricity may displace investment in other important economic sectors. For the case of large-scale electricity supply, we draw upon insights from Net Energy Analysis and renewable energy engineering to examine critically some assumptions, data and arguments in these papers, focussing on regions in which wind and solar can provide the majority of electricity. We show that the above claim is based on outdated data on EROIs, on failing to consider the energy efficiency advantages of transitioning away from fuel combustion and on overestimates of storage requirements. EROIs of wind and solar photovoltaics, which can provide the vast majority of electricity and indeed of all energy in the future, are generally high (≥ 10) and increasing. The impact of storage on EROI depends on the quantities and types of storage adopted and their operational strategies. In the regions considered in this paper, the quantity of storage required to maintain generation reliability is relatively small.
My super rough math, from quick Google searches, this unit 1,000 tons per year. A mature tree is estimated to capture 48 pounds per year. That would be about 42,000 trees. At roughly, 100-200 trees per acre. Let’s just say 150, so that’s 280 acres of forest/trees to roughly match to performance of the system. Granted, it’s on much less land, but still.
That doesn’t seem like a lot of land when you consider that large protected parks like Yosemite are 759,620 acres.
Assuming your math is right, and we need 42,000 mature trees per year capturing carbon, that means we need 1,555 newly planted acres of trees _per year_ to match this plant (and, there will be 25-30 years before the first batch to be planted actually matches in terms of capture). So you have a small problem of finding land that isn't already forested, finding labor to plant and maintain your growing forest, and continuing to do the same year after year.
And, bear in mind that this plant is just a rounding error on the problem in terms of capacity, so in reality you need to scale by orders of magnitude.
That said, even with my estimates you’re correct that this is a lot of land, but I wanted to quickly put it into perspective. We are losing forests all over the planet, and this can also help understand the impact of that.
Also, the labor you mention is probably a wash compared to the construction of this plant.
Edit: as an example, if you ever have a chance, go tour a maple tree farm as a good reference. Now, that said I did just google for maple farm tree density and they estimate 70 per acre.
Saplings are cheap. That's why planting trees is such an appealing "solution." All of the math is based on the assumption that the saplings survive until they can mature and start sucking in carbon. Most don't; one study found mean mortality rates of 44% after five years over 176 sites in tropical and sub-tropical Asia[0]. A Turkish effort saw over 90% of 11 million trees dead in under a year.[1] Other studies have found similarly horrible numbers, and that's not including the other ways[2] such projects can fail: degradation of grassland ecosystems that were already highly effective carbon sinks[3], decreased biodiversity, increased fire risks with non-native saplings, cultural and economic losses, etc.
There are wildly successful reforestation projects, but they take considerably more investment, local community support, and active long-term monitoring and intervention.[4] All of which undercut what originally made mass tree planting so appealing as a climate solution: the seemingly cheap cost.
We absolutely need to plant trees, both in urban environments because the quality of life benefits of urban trees are so numerous that it's an absolute no-brainer and as part of wider reforestation efforts, but it's never going to be a silver bullet for climate change. It's just one of many, many things we need to do.
0. https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rstb.2021.009...
1. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jan/30/most-of-11m-tr...
2. https://www.vox.com/down-to-earth/22679378/tree-planting-for...
3. https://www.vox.com/down-to-earth/22662490/grasslands-better...
4. https://www.science.org/content/article/reforestation-means-...
I found a NASA stat that an US average car will emit a metric ton of CO2 in 3 months of use.
"The U.S. EPA has found that a typical 22 MPG gas-based car emits about 5 tons of carbon dioxide per year. On average, you emit one ton of CO2 for about every 2,500 miles you drive".
CarbonCure(the partner of Heirloom here) agrees with me on the math: "CarbonCure’s global network of concrete producer partners has produced more than five million truckloads of carbon mineralized concrete, removing and reducing more than 365,000 metric tons of CO2. That’s equivalent to taking more than 80,000 gas-powered cars off the road for a year."
So this 1000 metric ton CO2 DAC plant could offset the activities of 100-400 vehicles in a year... minus the activities of the employees to get to the plant. That's what I wanna know. When are the workers going to stop driving 60 miles round trip to work? And how many need to be at work everyday at the plant?
I guess at least California is pushing electric cars.
How 'bout if workers at carbon capture facilities are prohibited from driving fossil-fueled cars to work. Maybe they could get e-bikes as a job perk ? It would be on-brand.
They are working on one part of the problem, carbon capture. Many others are working on the problems of electric vehicles and green electricity production.
So it's basically useless? Just for show? Surely you could have done much more for the environment investing that money in a smarter way?
1: https://www.atmosfair.de/de/save80/ - just an example, there are many ways of reducing co2 emission.
This happens a lot in climate policy discussions - "what about this other solution?" The answer is always "yes, that too!"
It's because of economics we're in this mess in the first place.
If you want future viability, you can ask if there is a cheap way or an expensive way to get what you want. That's economics. It says nothing about what your goal is.
What you're arguing is a rational idea of economics that doesn't exist. Instead, we have this bastard version influenced by politics, which in practice, cares nothing of the key objectives which concern future viability.
Instead, we get this thing that demands infinite growth and consumption. That's modern economics and it's destroying us.
This is a stylised misinterpretation of economics.
Also if it was actually expensive enough, we'd simply be doomed. Economics can't be ignored. They're a proxy for how much we can accomplish.
The same goes for fossil fuel consumption. There's nothing economic about not using fossil fuels.
Understandably it's a compromise, but the first reaction shouldn't be "it costs too much, so don't do it". This attitude is the reason why nothing ends up getting done. I would much rather an uneconomic solution, than no solution at all, which seemingly is the status quo.
Perhaps it's become harder in our current society, but many great projects of man were economic folly.
To give one admittedly a little cliche example, landing on the moon never made any economic sense.
This is a statement of reality, not economic system. A society that decided to divert resources, today, to building a Dyson sphere on Alpha Centauri would fail, irrespective of economic system, because the goal demands more resources than it can sustainably divert.
Yes, that's my point. The worry about "economically feasible" in the ancestor comment is a question of what plans are realistic with unlimited motivation. It's not about economic systems holding us back.
But yes, probably not using carbon would be better, so maybe if we have proper capabilities and laws in place, companies might be forced to remove all the carbon they release - that will either make them pay for such service or push towards reducing carbon as much as possible
However, there's already a lot of CO2 in the air, and we'll be wise to pull that out, too, so the impacts of warming are blunted.
Part of the way people will begin to vote for carbon-usage restrictions is when they begin to discover exactly how expensive it will be to remove from the air. The big catalyst, of course, is when they begin to personally feel acute effects of climate-change.
This [1] was my catalytic moment. Everyone's will be different, but we're each going to have one or more experiences that change our view on fossil fuels.
No one is disputing this is obviously the best move. But telling humans not to consume stuff has a rather long and unsuccessful history. Let's not try to keep doing that.
if carbon capture is undertaken seriously enough to just break even at current burn, the storage alone will be the largest industrial project in human history.
if we somehow stop burning carbon tomorrow we will still see catastrophic change as the carbon we've already emitted takes effect.
the beginning of any solution is to stop, but nobody can afford to stop.
At this scale, it's a cynical form of green washing that is so futile that it's not even worth talking about. The point of installations like this is to allow polluters to buy off their sins.
The church built a booming business out of allowing people to buy off their sins in the middle ages. It didn't really help but it made people feel good about themselves. This sort of is the modern day equivalent.
Direct-air carbon capture is (at best) about as useful as re-arranging deckchairs on the Titanic.
It's interesting, the limiting factors for biomass production are bioavailable nitrogen, carbon dioxide, sunlight and water, in that order. The ability to remove carbon dioxide from the air is the ability to modulate the amount of life on the planet, even to 0 if desired.
So about equivalent to 100 hectares of forest?
Anyway, cool, another 50 million more of these facilities and we'll be at break-even.
Of course, if $100 per ton ever becomes a reality, then it's just 3% of world GDP and is probably affordable. But that's a pie in the sky "forward looking statement".
The economic and legal arguments are a joke. The only serious plan would involve 100x or even 1000x our investments in fission R&D and capacity build out (and fusion research too because fission needs to get us there).
Don’t see that happening until the situation getting dire enough and that’s going to be too late because capacity can’t come online fast enough and these are runaway global processes. It’s taken 200 years of really bad destruction and it would take much longer than that running reclamation going at an insane rate to try to undo that damage. Arguably we’re already in runaway territory - We didn’t go to 0 but it was the single largest global reduction in co2 and still one of the worst global warming events we’ve seen so far. Do not expect anything magical from net 0. At this point it’s massively negative 0. That 2c of warming is a dream at this point. I don’t know what the actual number is because the international reports are constantly getting rewritten by politicians because the scientists are just being “too alarming”. It’s a joke.
You patch the hole. Once you deal with that, then you can start bailing.
How did you calculate the cost for this number? Is that supposed to be annual operating cost?
> it will be about 1.5x-2x more than entire energy expenditure worldwide
We could use non-carbon sources to triple energy production if we really wanted to.
$53M for 1K tons of capacity vs 37B tons annual mitigation needs, assuming 20 years amortisation, and purchase price being about half of the total lifetime costs including financing, which is typical for renewable energy systems, resulting in ~$200T a year vs $165T world GDP, so yes, oops, 1.2x world GDP :) which is still kinda too costly :D
>We could use non-carbon sources to triple energy production if we really wanted to.
exactly my point.
Nothing says the company is spending all their money on this facility, and I massively doubt the second and third such facility would cost anywhere near the same amount.
Also there's no need to finance, just cap annual builds at N/20 per year.
> exactly my point.
Huh? I thought you were arguing capture needs too much power, and what I was saying was that capture does not need too much power.
If you're suggesting replacing most of our existing electrical production, I agree, but capture would still be useful.
You could also phrase this as 'global GDP would triple from this initiative'. GDP is a silly measurement.
It doesn't matter how much money you print, someone can't be in two places at once, growing food and working in the carbon capture factory
No, you couldn’t, not in real terms.
Let’s suppose a government diverted 2x GDP to this proposal. It can’t tax 200% of output—it must print money. G goes to 2x prior-year GDP. Pretty much immediately, every other component collapses to zero (besides expectations, the government is basically seizing all base metals production and transportation and labor) amidst hyperinflation. Which makes your real G, and GDP, lower than before.
You need to build small before you can build big.
With how dumb carbon capture is, the correct response is ridicule and jokes, not serious discussion...
It's too bad these DAC systems don't take it a step further kicking the o2 back into the atmosphere while turning the carbon into something physical and industrially valuable like say spools of carbon fiber fabric or graphene/carbon nanotubes.
archive.is has a notorious feud with Cloudflare over some technical detail they care about strongly.
https://webapps.stackexchange.com/questions/135222/why-does-...
Ok, now let’s go back talking about carbon and oxygen.
But of course, let's trust corporations and government to carefully calculate exactly how much CO2 they should take out.
Can't wait for the revival of the ice age scare from the 80s...
Trees evolved to work with the inputs of their environment, we can engineer practically anything in terms of what materials/inputs are available to a synthetic tree having the sole purpose of spitting out solid carbon.
It's non-trivial to prevent other nations from destroying their forests. But nations that care might be able to make up for it with engineering, from anywhere else on the planet, at least in terms of atmospheric co2. Is the best way for such a nation to do so to just plant trees, or can we do better? It seems like a path worth at least exploring the possibilities of.