Iran plans to unplug the Internet, launch its own "clean" alternative
arstechnica.com
arstechnica.com
The problem is that techno-authoritarian systems, e.g. what N Korea is approaching, are very stable once properly assembled. The "human" regimes, i.e. liberal democracies, have to constantly fight against slipping into that horror. We need to find a way to change this equation because it asymptotically solves for a very dark future. From a systems theory perspective, the solution is ironically a random and sufficiently destructive agent - a joker.
I disagree with this. You are still free not to use technology even in an "Orwellian regime". The Internet hasn't made things worse. Would you rather live in a country with no Internet at all or a country with their own Internet?
Thus, it isn't that one can choose not to use technology and thus avoid its Orwellian repercussions as much as the existence of the choice in the first place implies both use cases (promoting freedom/connectivity and facilitating surveillance/oppression) exist. Your decision to participate or abstain has little bearing on an ambitious dictator's.
In order for people to stand up against oppression it helps when they can "feel the pain" and not have it muffled by some cheap painkiller substitutes.
The only reason they haven't been nuked yet is because it's right next to China, and because they are so miserable sending them some food scraps is cheaper than bombing them.
Think of an authoritarian country with universal surveillance and the ability to dispatch fully automated enforcement. That system is very stable at eliminating chaotic subsystems before they become threatening. It is also remarkably resilient in its ability to contract to its power base, re-charge, and then re-project from a solid platform (think Assad and his Alawite base except with no question of wavering loyalty). This makes it resilient even during tail events.
burgerbrain 506 days ago:
[...] there is an absolutely absurd amount of conventional artillery positioned at the DMZ just a few dozen kilometres away from Seoul. If all out war were to occur the city, with it's 25million or so citizens, could be levelled in hours.
"The federal government is drowning in data now. The decision-makers have the ability to ask certain kinds of questions. But they cannot possibly handle the amount of specific information that has been computerized."
Truly warped.
For instance, people on HN seem to get really worked up about the TSA, sexism in the tech industry, the war on drugs, and the privacy implications of Facebook and Google. If you were trying to protect a totalitarian state, do you really think any of those would be part of the agenda? Things like the TSA and war on drugs could be deliberately bad policy designed to distract the easily outraged. As for Facebook and Google, the worst thing they're going to do with your personal information is target advertisements at you. A totalitarian state would probably just build a system like Echelon.
Sure, I bet that is what everyone is complaining about. It certainly can't be about the possibility of your private information ending up in hands that could do you harm with it, right? I mean, who in their right mind would be afraid of how a bank or an employer or a court or a government agency might use some innocuous bit of information they thought was private? After all, if you have nothing to hide, you have nothing to be afraid of...
It is hard to see how a war with Iran can be avoided.
EDIT: Anyone who is downvoting, please post an actual reasoned response on what exactly you disagree with.
The world isn't fair mostly because people can't stop fucking with each other.
There's no doubt that actually launching a nuclear first strike would be the end of the regime, and they know it. But they still quite rationally want a nuclear deterrent so they can achieve a balance of power with Israel and insurance against an American invasion.
So war is not a foregone conclusion, even if they really manage to build a nuclear weapon, and if they could credibly threaten to deliver it, which is much harder and not at all certain.
Consider that a nation like China values stability and plays for the long term, and yet they've been willing to continue backing Iran. Clearly China has evaluated the Iranian regime and decided it's stable enough to rely on. My money is on China knowing what they're doing.
The push for war has everything to do with the US and Israel wanting to maintain overwhelming military dominance. Iran is not a realistic threat to the existence of Israel or US security. But it's a threat to American regional hegemony.
Israel is no threat to Iran. The worst they could do is make limited air raids, and the only interest they'd have in that would be to destroy their nuclear program. So the Iranian nuclear program only increases the risk of Israeli action.
As for the US, there's no rational risk of US action if they don't develop nuclear weapons. Iraq is no precedent, if only because Iraq was already in an untenable situation with the economic and military sanctions, and the last thing you do if you want to become Iraq is give the rest of the world a reason to impose sanctions. Developing nuclear weapons and violating human rights are both fantastic ways to get sanctions imposed.
Of course, these arguments are a bit wounding to the national pride, but you're saying Iran is acting rationally, not pridefully.
> Consider that a nation like China values stability and plays for the long term, and yet they've been willing to continue backing Iran. Clearly China has evaluated the Iranian regime and decided it's stable enough to rely on. My money is on China knowing what they're doing.
By that logic, North Korea is a stable and reliable regime. There's something more going on here. Charitably speaking, maybe China thinks they can keep some control over Iran, the same way they have some control over North Korea, by fostering dependence.
It's got nothing to do with Iran, N.Korea or even Israel ultimately. It's certainly got nothing to do with human rights (if so, why hasn't NATO invaded Darfur?) I'm going to stop now because this is becoming too political.
But who gets to decide that Iran is not allowed to do whatever the heck they want with their oil supply? Is Iran indebted to the world to give them oil? Maybe the world should just find an alternative if they don't like it. That's not a reason to start a war. And if people really understood that this is the real reason and not some imminent nuclear threat, they'd probably be against the war, too, and learn to deal with the situation, and adapt.
The reason they will probably never use them is that if they do, they're pretty much screwed - the US and NATO will finally have a clear reason to start a war with them and they'll go the way of Iraq for sure. They don't have the military power to oppose any serious attack from NATO, at least from what I can see.
Russia and China stepping in would be the only possible game changers, but I don't see a reason for them to side with Iran as it is now, either...
P.S. Is it me or downvoting seems flawed here - one downvote and the comment is out of sight?
A middle eastern country with weapons of mass destruction... where have I heard that before?
Until then I'm just down-voting you for baldly stating something that contradicts most reasoned analyses that I've read.
If I had to come up with tactics for preventing any further problems like that, "let's look at the example from China" would certainly be on the table.
"Several times in 2011, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmedinejad, true to his nationalist policies, announced the creation of a national Web, a "clean" version of the Internet with its own search engine and messaging service. This may mean two different types of access, one for the authorities and another for the rest of the population"
To me that implies stricter use of firewalls and launching national services for search and email. That's somewhat different to re-inventing the Internet, which I feel the title here implies.
I haven't read this article yet, but believe me, they want to shut down Internet badly. They've been planning (and building the infrastructure and testing it) for the past three years.
But you're quite right, they can't shut down the Internet completely, it will be there. But, the "national" Internet will be faster, and all official websites (news agencies, banks, etc.) will be forced to support it. I'm sure you won't believe it, but right now there's a cap for Internet access speed in Iran (128 Kbps: 128 Kilobits per second, or 16 KiloBytes per second). If you're a student or you can make a reasonable argument, you can go as high as 1 MBps (and an unmetered 1Mbps access costs about 130 dollars per month, so for most people it doesn't worth it). Now, imagine a cheap, 7 Mbps "national" Internet for everyone. The Internet can't compete with this new intranet...
[Edit] fix typo
I'm not arguing for the cap. I'm just confused that you think a 1Mbit connection is somehow comically slow?
I have a 256 Kbps connection. It's really, really slow. It took me 2 days to download OS X Lion from Mac App Store (about 3.5 GB).
As long as those with power are not willing to give up their own access to the internet, hackers will find a way to break the system.
This is not about how easy is for hackers to circumvent the system, this is about how effective is the system in stopping information flow for the masses.
Besides there's the social factor: the Chinese are cool with their government for now because despite all the crap you hear they are still much better off than 20 or 30 years ago. Iran on the other hand is doing like shit, the embargo has destroyed their economy and the people has already revolted before, and the ayatollahs are scared shitless about the Arab Spring.
This might be the last straw...
The purpose of these systems is to keep the general population in the dark, it's not targeted at knowledgeable intellectuals. You can't keep them in the dark anyway and they already know. It's only point is to stop knowledge dissipating to the masses.
Parallel how educated Americans' exasperation with the TSA or War on Drugs has less impact on the current political situation than the specter of gay marriage....
Power may be corrupting some of those who manage to get to the top, and some of those who get a majority of votes may not be the brightest, but most 1st world gov'ts are pretty honest. Not only because we have free media that is watching every step these people do and will make them resign at the smallest mistake.
But, if you think that "they" are that bad, then you can just become one of "them" and do it better. I would recommend your local Pirate Party to start.
This is true, in the same way that I'd be honest if you were to ask me a simple yes/no question, and I responded with a page-long expression that took a day to evaluate to the actual answer. Which is why ...
> you can just become one of "them" and do it better
... is doomed to fail. The problem isn't morals, it's unbounded complexity. People are just the substrate that the bureaucracy runs on. Feeding it ever-more people and resources (exponential technological growth) only compounds the fundamental problem - when something is not understandable, it's completely unaccountable.
http://falkvinge.net/2012/04/09/we-are-winning-how-pirate-pa...
It's only 5 years since the Pirate Parties started (first in Sweden), and it looks pretty good (in Germany they have now double diggits in the polls). Another 5 years and Pirates will be part of the gov't of several EU countries, I would guess.
Of all tyrannies, a tyranny sincerely exercised for the
good of its victims may be the most oppressive. It would be
better to live under robber barons than under omnipotent
moral busybodies. The robber baron's cruelty may sometimes
sleep, his cupidity may at some point be satiated; but
those who torment us for our own good will torment us
without end for they do so with the approval of their own
conscience.
C. S. LewisThis will obviously just motivate brilliant hackers to find brilliant ways around brilliantly moronic "policy."
The only realistic way I could see this working on a large scale is a very wealthy, motivated, and low-profile hacker somehow managing to string in fiber across the border from neighbouring countries, set up multiple wireless access points, and get a mesh network going across the country.
On a small scale (say, for a hacker and his buddies or an underground resistance force), I suppose you'd only need to get a decent wireless-N access point near the border (in Turkey, perhaps?) broadcasting a WPA-encrypted hidden network, then have specific people in strategic locations running cheap wireless-N routers configured with Tomato or DD-WRT to act as repeaters. Obviously this isn't foolproof (hidden networks are easy to find if you're looking for them), it would be easy to cut off if it were discovered, and it would be slow as balls, but if you could manage to get a large enough chain going everywhere it needed to be, and its use were coordinated well enough to ensure that it would only be used in urgent situations (and only through Tor), then it could prove to be an invaluable resource.
But yeah, Iran's people need another revolution, fast.
Or satellite Internet.
Edit: justincormack brought up an awesome point too: dialup. If we could get a black market for high-compression modems going, and possibly use the modems to fortify the mesh network routers as a secondary Internet source to the satellite dishes, this could end up being fairly robust.
I would love to see the CIA or some other organisation put a few billion into this if Iran really goes through with the plan.
In reality though, a modern business is dead on arrival if they can't outside of the country for customers.
I auctually wanted SOPA to pass. Maybe it will get people thinking.
Does this mean their public IPs go back into circulation?
Something that can reduce the ICANN and the US control over the current network. After all, competition is always good.
We now have such underground networks that is piggybacking on the existing internet.
If I lived in Iran I don't think I would be renewing my ISP plan any time soon.
why do all the dumb nerds on here think they can comment on things they have absolutely no idea about either. regardless of how little wisdom most of you have, you don't even know the facts.
also leave iran alone you monsters