I wasn't giving a stock tip. Just stating what I see as the most obvious conclusion.
That being said, if I had a net worth of any significant value that wasn't illiquid, I would probably buy FB stock on IPO and hold it for a few years. I can't see why you wouldn't want to.
They have not really monetized, they have 800M+ users and they are already doing $1B/profit per year. Imagine when they really figure out how to make money.
Those reasons you have given are basically a gamble on the assumptions that:
- Facebook can earn a lot more money (5x - 20x more)
- Facebook hasn't done it yet because they haven't figured it out
- They will figure it out within 3 years (your exit window)
It does seem like an overly simplified argument. I don't think monetising Facebook to the levels you think possible in a 3 year window is as easy as people think, and it might not actually be possible.
You're also ignoring the possibility that this gamble isn't already priced into the stock.
But when Facebook saying "we didn't really started to monetize our 800M eyeballs, we just waiting for IPO and will figure it's later" - it's sounds silly.
Just like Twitter is.
You may poo poo it all day, doesn't change the fact that over the long run it works.