Why do you think the FB stock is likely to appreciate significantly in a few months? If you really believe this, I assume you've just invested a significant chunk of your net worth into FB stocks?
That will likely push up demand for the stock in the short-term, thereby the price.
Aside from that, we have never seen a service have 800M users and still growing at the rate that FB is growing and have the stickiness that it has. So there is no telling how big it can get - which is why the valuation is so high.
There is no doubt that over the long term, FB will figure out a way to print money. It's just a matter of time.
Someone could read what you wrote and buy stock when your actual reasoning is simply because you think the public are going to get excited and buy the Facebook stock because they use it, along with the big assumptions that a) this wont already be reflected in the price and that b) these people who are buying the stock will have a meaningful impact on a $100b cap company with a 'significant' increase in price.
These are not the best assumptions and reasons to state that it's highly likely that FB stock will significantly increase. Every time I hear someone say something like this I have to ask how much of their own wealth they've stuck out on the line because more often than not it's nothing.
I wasn't giving a stock tip. Just stating what I see as the most obvious conclusion.
That being said, if I had a net worth of any significant value that wasn't illiquid, I would probably buy FB stock on IPO and hold it for a few years. I can't see why you wouldn't want to.
They have not really monetized, they have 800M+ users and they are already doing $1B/profit per year. Imagine when they really figure out how to make money.
But when Facebook saying "we didn't really started to monetize our 800M eyeballs, we just waiting for IPO and will figure it's later" - it's sounds silly.
Just like Twitter is.
You may poo poo it all day, doesn't change the fact that over the long run it works.
Those reasons you have given are basically a gamble on the assumptions that:
- Facebook can earn a lot more money (5x - 20x more)
- Facebook hasn't done it yet because they haven't figured it out
- They will figure it out within 3 years (your exit window)
It does seem like an overly simplified argument. I don't think monetising Facebook to the levels you think possible in a 3 year window is as easy as people think, and it might not actually be possible.
You're also ignoring the possibility that this gamble isn't already priced into the stock.