The US is quietly arming Taiwan to the teeth
bbc.com
bbc.com
The US basically has a barrier of military bases along the entire Chinese coast. The US also besties with Singapore, sharing a navel base there, where it could easily cut off China from middle eastern oil via The Straight of Malacca.
China should just take the L on Taiwan. In a war they wouldn't get any of the chip fabs or tech. Everything would be destroyed. It would be purely to fulfill their ego at an extreme cost.
But I think extremes never work. Neither strict communism nor all-out capitalism.
I fail to see how the sentiments of Vietnam or the Philippines have any bearing on the capacity of China to capture Taiwan. Talk is cheap, and neither country has taken any substantive steps toward a deterrence capability, let alone an improved one.
> The US basically has a barrier of military bases along the entire Chinese coast.
This sounds like something a PRC defense pundit would claim as justification for China's belligerency in the South China Sea. The few US bases in the region are north of the South China Sea, in Japan and North Korea. Take a quick glance at a map.
> The US also besties with Singapore, sharing a navel base there, where it could easily cut off China from middle eastern oil via The Straight of Malacca.
Singapore also has close ties with China, including joint military training: https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/china-says-will-c...
The "bases" the US has in Singapore are merely for logistics and training. India also has similar agreements for use of Singapore's naval bases, and India is not a defense ally of the U.S. Singapore has a few bases in the U.S., but they're likewise for training and nobody would claim they're a potential military staging ground.
Singapore isn't a defense ally of the U.S., notwithstanding their defense ties. As a vulnerable city-state Singapore desires to be besties with everybody, especially those who can exert pressure on Malaysia and Indonesia.
India is not a defense ally of any country. However, at this time, India is the only country that is in a state of active war with China.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Changi_Naval_Base
Here is a map of US military bases:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:American_bases_worldwide....
You can see the US has bases in South korea, Japan, Philipines, and Singapore. As well as outer laying bases in Guam and Northern Australia.
China doesn't have any breathing room in the pacific. But when you shit all over your neighbors, that's what happens. They back North Korea. Have centuries long conflict with Japan. And ignore the Philippines South China Sea territory.
The U.S. also has signals facilities in many places. Some might count these as military bases, but that's a stretch.
Also, "Singapore has the second largest permanent foreign military training presence in the continental United States, with almost 1,000 Singapore Armed Forces personnel training at any one time." https://www.state.gov/u-s-security-cooperation-with-singapor...
Yes, that's right! It's called the "Island chain strategy".
Of course it would be naïve to think there aren't also some more self-serving geo-political interests at play here, but this is really what it comes down to.
I'm surprised Russia and China are allies, considering Russia kicked the hornet's nest and will make annexation of Taiwan harder.
As Iran, China, and North Korea are not really allies, nobody wants to be the one who goes first. (And if the one who went first wasn't China, they would probably be not only stopped but stomped.)
Not sure how Iran and Koreas is relevant.
If Iran latched out at its neighbours and that region is plunged into chaos, it’ll hurt China more than USA. China is desperately dependent on oil from that region. USA is a net exporter.
There’s not much we could do for South Korea regardless. Seoul will be flattened by artillery before we have time to react. And in the medium term I think what’s left of South Korea could wipe out the North on their own. Not good for China either. Would open a land bridge from a US ally to Chinas mainland.
The drone boats Ukraine is developing is a disaster for Chinas invasion plans as well I think. Chinas plan depends on overwhelming Taiwan with thousands of ships, many of which will not have advanced anti ship weapons. If Taiwan can take out most of them with cheap drone boats or even small drone submarines, Chinas plans aren’t viable. I’m sure Taiwan is studying Ukraines solutions closely.
No matter how much stuff the US ships to Taiwan, the Chinese have much more. The only result is that Taiwan's chip manufacturing will be destroyed and that will be more destructive to the West than to China.
Anyway, China won't go to war with the Republic of China unless the Republic of China declares its independence. Just like the US went to war with the Confederacy in the 1860s when they declared independence.