Toyota cuts 2023 EV sales forecast by nearly 40% | Hacker News Reader

Toyota cuts 2023 EV sales forecast by nearly 40%

electrek.co

33 pointsjwcooper61 comments

Toyota and Japanese auto manufacturers in general (except Nissan, which is crossed owned by French automaker Renault S.A.) are legging behind in EV development either because they chose the Hydrogen fuel cell route when investing R&D money in the past few decades, probably 10s of billions USD by now. It was a catastrophic strategic mistake. Because of heavy bet on non-EV and the decades of R&D on a dead-end on fuel cell technologies, they have always been wishy-washy about EV investments and productions. The further they delayed their investment in EV technology, the more they are lagging behind in battery tech and EV drivetrain and infotainment systems, as evidently as bZ4X etc.

But the report accurately pointed out the main reason for sales decline is due to the fierce competition in Chinese market where Chinese domestic EV brands are rising rapidly - just as how it was developed for the smartphone in the early 2010s. The iteration speed of product development and governmental support in EV transportation shift drives the huge recent sales success in Chinese EV brands like BYD.

hybrid hydrogen electric car

" It was a catastrophic strategic mistake. Because of heavy bet on non-EV and the decades of R&D on a dead-end on fuel cell technologies"

I don't think the race is over now and I would not call it a dead end. Just out of my head, at least Mercedes still invests heavily in fuel cells for trucks: https://www.hydrogeninsight.com/transport/-record-run-daimle...

Also Bosch: https://www.bosch-mobility.com/en/mobility-topics/fuel-cell-...

I think the rumors of the death of the fuel cell are highly exaggerated.

Toyota is moving its hydrogen investments over to commercial heavy trucks as well.

Hydrogen is not a dead end. It might be impractical for most of the car market for a variety of reasons, but is showing a lot of promise and looking like the only real contender for commercial vehicles, aviation and shipping. All places where there either isn't the volume or the capacity to carry the weight of batteries required for the range needed, by orders of magnitude, so it's unfeasible that battery tech breakthroughs would make a meaningful difference.

They don't want to have to make EVs, they've said so repeatedly for years (mixed with the occasional "We know how to make the best EVs and we'll release them a few years from now! Honest!".

Meanwhile they're being leapfrogged. Unless you work for Toyota or you have shares in them, it doesn't really matter.

Except aren’t they the ones promising solid state batteries with insane range?

You can’t drive vaporware. It’s not real until you can buy it.

It's real - they're working on scaling-out the production. Granted, they may not be successful in that endeavor, but that's not quite the same thing as calling it vaporware.

> "We know how to make the best EVs and we'll release them a few years from now! Honest!"

future isn't solid state its ultracheap sodium ion once we figure out how to produce them properly

What makes you say that other than price and material availability? According to Wikipedia the energy density is lower, and it also seems to have less cycles. It looks like the only thing that’s better is a hypothetical price point and the elements required.

price and materials are what matter if you want to build a billion EVs

And recycling/disposal.

There is a few benefits besides cost.

The battery can handle 100,000 cycles, lithium ion 10,000 cycles. Can handle being dry and over charged (lithium can not). Can also handle wider range of temperatures.

Only difference is the capacity which is only about 20% smaller but the resources needed to make sodium ion is about 60% cost reduction per equal part capacity.

Only if we can fix the yield problem right now.

At this point, being a a major battery OEM might be Toyota's best hope in the EV space.

I guess by comparison to pure EV’s they’re in a good position in the hybrid market for anyone who needs longer range and quick gas refills. But their EV competitors are all currently moving down the experience curve and building scale and capacity. This will be harder to rejoin the party later, especially if eg Tesla and BYD stay aggressive on pricing.

That's a market that isn't going to serve them as well as they imagine. Most people just genuinely don't need that "longer range and quick gas refills", very often if at all. In return, they have shorter electric range because they have to carry around a heavy engine and a more complex drive train, which requires vastly more maintenance.

It's a fence-sitting position driven by inertia rather than a serious consideration of people's driving habits and the future direction of automobile infrastructure. That does not bode well.

Easy to go from 10 to 6 now that the employee discount is gone.

Incredible that may still sell 123 000 of their disappointing electric vehicles after their marketing department did shit so much on electric vehicles for years.

I feel a bit sorry for the few uninformed elderly people who bought a BZ4X without reading anything about it, trusting their favourite brand.

They don't even sell Plugin Hybrids in Australia. They used to have a single Lexus SKU but they killed it.

It's funny cos if you look back at Japanese car manufacturing's history, in the 1960s and 1970s their cars were literally motorbikes with panels wrapped around. The Chinese never even really had that janky stage and completely leapfrogged over them.

>Chinese never even really had that janky stage and completely leapfrogged over them.

The first iteration of the great wall we had here was pretty damn janky. Not "motorbike with a shell" janky, but the Chinese had the rest of the world to get designs from.

As a potential consumer of a replacement vehicle I agree with this - I don't want an EV right now, I want a hybrid - all the advantages: low pollution local driving, higher efficiency due to regenerative braking, plug it in no need to fill up - none of the drawbacks: unlimited range for when I go on a long trip (I'm unwilling to wait more than 10 minutes to recharge/refuel. And yes I'm aware of eating and bathrooms.)

If they’re leaning into hybrid, then why isn’t the Corolla Hatch Hybrid available in Canada?

You realize one has nothing to do with the other right? They make a hybrid version of almost every model in the lineup. They are leaning into fucking hybrids mate.

probably market asks awd cross instead?

Because the Corolla Hatch already sells very little. The few units they manage to sell go to a very specific crowd looking for a sporty but affordable hatch.

At the Corolla price point, the hybrid versions are also meant for a crowd looking for good fuel economy. The sporty hatchback and fuel economy crowds do not overlap, because fuel-sipping hybrid engines have poor acceleration. And more generally the fuel economy crowd would prefer the sedan model, because it provides more interior room while using less gas than the hatch version.

I thought the sedan and hatch gas version has the same fuel economy, and isn’t the hatch useful for hauling large items?

If not a hatch, which model/car do I get for a cheap, reliable, fuel efficient car that can haul largish items?

A utility vehicle like a Nissan cube or a honda element?

Both discontinued, the Cube was not rated as very reliable while the Honda Element has atrocious fuel economy.

I used to own a Kia Soul. It was very spacious to carry around items. It was also fairly reliable and didn’t require any repairs beyond standard maintenance. However fuel economy wasn’t as good as a sedan. The boxy shape really impacts that, it’s all about aerodynamics. It’s cheap enough that you might be willing to overlook that, though.

Do any of their EVs even qualify for the tax credit at this point? Doubtful. I bet that, along with having like 1 pure EV model, explains why.

No they don't. Dealers are pushing leases since that's the only way it would qualify. bz4x is going for model y prices with a 2015 rav4 interior. It's not going to end well.

I can see both sides to this argument (saying this as someone who owns property in multiple countries and has an electric (Tesla Model 3LR), Plug in Hybrid(Chevy Volt 2nd gen) and ICE cars (A 20 year old Volvo S60 and 22 year old Audi TT)).

Toyota's competitive advantage has always been to use slightly older perfected technology that will last a long time instead of cutting edge technology with more problems etc. That is why they are known to be reliable cars with high resale values.

In the US it mostly is a decent decision to buy electric (and I love my Tesla and Volt) but there are some caveats. 1. The insurance tends to be a bit more expensive. 2. You need to have a place with charging infrastructure (like your own home or an apartment etc. that has free charging). 3. Paid chargers often have similar costs to buying gas for ICE vehicles. 4. Battery degradation is a thing. As someone who lives in the SouthEast and likes to keep cars for 10-15+ years that becomes an issue with cars like the Volt where the only option that makes economic sense when the battery dies is to try to find a refurb from another vehicle if the car is out of warranty. The Tesla is not as likely to have that issue because a lot more were produced, but if other offerings have after sales support similar to the volt because of lower than expected sales volumes that becomes a perception issue down the road unless you want to just purchase a car, take a big depreciation hit and then trade it in a few years. 5. depreciation see #4. 6. Sales are currently slowing down with inventory piling up even with federal subsidies right now. Imagine how much lower it would be without them. 7. To add more range to a car like the Tesla you need to add more batteries which adds a lot of weight to the car (they have already gone after most the low hanging fruit with motor efficiency and vehicle wind drag). Because of the weight it goes through tires a lot quicker. (30K miles vs 60K average for tires)

With the Tesla, it is practical for my needs, but I bought it more so because it is fun to drive, I like the tech etc..

Other countries, outside of Europe, China and other developed nations are a mixed bag.

For example in Costa Rica, where I have a property, even with the government tax discounts it doesn't make any sense because electric is really expensive there and it is difficult to get parts is something goes wrong. Also, if you want a car that you are not going to drive a lot of miles in every year there is also the issue of time degrading your battery which is going to be a lot more expensive and difficult to replace there.

South Africa has so many current problems with their electric grid that they heavily tax BEV's instead of offering tax breaks like other countries. Ironically, having solar panels and batteries for a house makes more sense there.

....and guess which car brand is has one of the higher theft rates because of parts and resale around the world....Toyota. They also have a very large market share in a large percentage of the world as a top producer.

While I'm not sure that hydrogen will gain traction, because of the slow market adoption it will not surprise me if the legislation around the world to ban ICE sales ends up being relaxed before it takes effect and the transition happens much more slowly.

Wow can't believe they miscalculated their sales by an amount of 15 whole cars! /s

Not sure why you’re being downvoted. The BZ4X is a terrible EV. There’s no way they made it so bad without trying.

Even the name seems like a joke from them. Prius, Corolla, Tacoma, … bZ4X ?

Busy Forks

The wheels falling off didn’t help.

I mean the wheels literally fell off and all vehicles were recalled. How can they screw up their first ev so badly unless it was intentionally sabotaged by management withholding support and resources

Didn’t Rivian have a recall involving wheels falling off as well?

EDIT: not sure why this is downvoted; a simple google search shows this is 100% true: https://www.cnn.com/2022/10/08/business/rivian-recall/index....

On rivian your referenced article states “the company has the capacity to inspect all affected vehicles and make any necessary repairs within 30 days”

Toyota took like half a year or something similarly ridiculous to figure how to prevent the wheels from falling off. Like, is this the first time they’ve ever tried to build a car or something? Oh wait, rivian solved their problem faster than Toyota despite it literally being one of the first vehicles they’ve ever designed. So a new company still working out issues made Toyota look amateur.

I saw one parked the other day and I liked the design. But I hear it’s a terrible vehicle

Sounds like a self-fulfilling prophecy to me. Toyota has always leaned into hybrids and away from full-electric models. They just aren't very good at competing in the full-electric market. So it makes sense for them to issue a self-serving "forecast" and simultaneously announce that they're pushing hybrids instead.

Not just hybrids— they went all in on hydrogen, which was stupid.

To be fair here, it's not Toyota that is going all-in on hydrogen. It's Japan as a political whole that is going all-in on hydrogen.

Why wasn’t Honda similarly affected?

They were, their electric cars have been pretty bad- super low range (110 miles), low volume production. Their new, competitive cars are based on GM's tech and battery stack.

But they didn’t put out hydrogen-powered vehicles (at least in the US), did they?

They have.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Honda_Clarity

>The Honda Clarity is a nameplate used by Honda on alternative fuel vehicles. It was initially used only on hydrogen fuel-cell electric vehicles such as the 2008 Honda FCX Clarity, but in 2017 the nameplate was expanded to include the battery-electric Honda Clarity Electric and the plug-in hybrid electric Honda Clarity Plug-in Hybrid, in addition to the next generation Honda Clarity Fuel Cell. Clarity production ended in August 2021 with US leases for the fuel cell variant continuing through to 2022.

In what sense did Toyota go "all in" on hydrogen?

Toyota produces more ICE vehicles than any other drive train. Toyota produces more hybrids than BEVs. And more BEVs than FCEVs.

The Toyota Mirai, for example, has always been a low volume vehicle. There's no sense in which Toyota went all in on it.

The more simple reality is that Toyota produces many drive train types.

They went all in as an alternative to ICE. Their BEVs are very recent. They had people arguing for more than a decade “will it be batteries or hydrogen?” without any serious effort at all to make the Mirai more than a source of confusion and discouragement.

And how does your conspiracy theory explain the low volume production of the Mirai?

Things really are more simple: Toyota's going to build cars and try to sell them. They build multiple drive trains because they can. They will build more of the ones that sell.

It’s not necessarily a conspiracy they might have just been unserious or lazy in forcing the world to make a huge change. They sold very few of them because nobody wanted to buy them because there’s no fuel for them. If they wanted to sell them they needed to build a fuel network.

> they might have just been unserious or lazy in forcing the world to make a huge change

Eh, you want Toyota, a car company, to force you to do things? That's a strange perspective.

> They sold very few of them

Because they produced very few of them. They still don't make very many.

I think we've arrived back at the beginning. You're agreeing that Toyota didn't go "all in" on hydrogen.

Try to ask questions instead of applying your own meaning to my words. We might have had a good conversation that way. You’re right we’re back at the beginning. Have a good day.

There are no questions to ask. You're inventing a narrative that doesn't correspond to the practical reality.

>Because they produced very few of them. They still don't make very many.

Because they rely entirely on subsidies and there’s no good fuel distribution network. They were very serious about hydrogen, they just expected other companies (ICE age fuel distributors) to build that network.

What are you talking about? Toyota has been saying that Hydrogen is the real future of ICE replacement in their own words for years.

I'm talking about the practical reality of what Toyota actually does. I'm not talking about some half-baked conspiracy theory cobbled together from media soundbites.

People into EV dont read statistics. I their worldview everyone bought EVs. Everyone lives in Bay area and drives EVs without touching the steering wheel. Meanwhile thousands pay for 2nd or 3rd hand cheap ICE car. A lot of my friends were shock when they lookup how small EV sales is in the world market. Even in USA, EVs is around maybe at best 5%-10% sales. And that is NEW car sales (with government subsidies). You add in used market, that numbers drop less than 1%. Even even today, Tesla is not even world biggest EV makers.

They went all in on Hydrogen which is maybe just maybe not stupid but then went 0% in on supplying the hydrogen! That’s the really stupid thing which makes it clear they were never serious about it. Tesla matters because of the supercharger network. Without it they would be building super cars for environmentalist billionaires and that would be it.

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