Sam Bankman-Fried: guilty on all charges

4 years in a white collar crime prison. I don't think there's going to be major consequences.

I'd be absolutely shocked if he got 4 years. It'll likely be much higher. I'd be pretty surprised by anything less than 10 years, but wouldn't be too surprised by sentences north of 25.

The federal sentencing guidelines are... very rough for the amount of money at issue. I'm pretty sure a significant downward departure from the guidelines would be required for the judge to get under 20 years.

Wrong. Considering Liz Holmes got 11 years for a much smaller scale fraud, SBF will get at least 30. And since this is a federal crime, he has to serve 85% of the sentence.

Enjoying the predictions, price on Polymarket on ">50y" currently 38¢ to win $1.

https://polymarket.com/event/sbf-sentenced-to-50-years

He'll probably get 45 years and serve 13ish.

Federal prisoners must serve a minimum of 85% of their sentence in jail. If he gets 45 years, barring a change in the law, he'll serve at least 38.25 years.

Dupe?

Main discussion: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=38122061

Thanks. I searched for this URL before posting, but didn't see the nytimes post.