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Comment by tick_tock_tick | Hacker News Reader

I kinda want us to end the embargo just so the failures of the state of Cuba stopped being blamed on the USA.

So your hypothesis is that a country under decades of embargo would somehow do worse or at least no better after that embargo is lifted?

Hmm seems possible although unlikely. Last time we had more than a decade of free trade with Cuba we had quite the incentive to support Batista and various us interest dictators. The embargo probably helps keep certain interests out of their hair.

Just that they expect it to keep failing, I think. Presumably there is some threshold for success, and a slight enough improvement would still constitute failure.

I also am fairly confused by that point. Cuba is effectively maintaining itself under an international embargo and somehow trains medical professionals from even the United States. Cuba also designed and produced multiple COVID vaccines that have held up compared to the vaccines rolled out globally.

I am fairly impressed by what Cuba has accomplished under these conditions and resent how difficult the US has made it to vacation there (buying +1 hop of a plane ticket through Mexico). I go to Cuba from time to time for free health checks ups and cheap healthcare.

> maintaining itself

this is not the best success metric in the modern world.

> that have held up compared to the vaccines rolled out globally.

probably according to Cuban government.

Cuba isn't under international embargo, it's basically just the US. And the UN has voted on this resolution with the exact same result for 30 years.

Yea, but this point is a bit disingenuous because ships that make port in Cuba can't then also then make port in the US.

https://ofac.treasury.gov/faqs/779

The US has a huge amount of influence on all global trade, regardless of it's with the US or not.

Europe and Asia do have trade with Cuba. In fact Cuba imports more from US than from Canada or Mexico.

https://oec.world/en/profile/country/cub?yearlyTradeFlowSele...

That sounds like a minor inconvenience, at worst.

Do you know much about shipping and logistics? It's all about finding efficiencies. If a ship visits Cuba, it can't visit any American port for 180 days. Considering how close they are and how much smaller a market Cuba is, I imagine shippers would charge more for freight to/from Cuba because now that ship can't be used for trade with the US. That ship is limited to/from places farther than Cuba (which are also smaller and poorer than the US).

There are regular routes from Cuba to Europe and China. It maybe costs slightly more, but shipping isn't that expensive in the first place.

The biggest problem selling to Cuba is that you would sell to the Cuban state. That problem is much smaller today since Cuba opened up for capitalist a couple of years ago, so now private companies are importing goods to Cuba.

Can read about Cuban imports here, the problem wasn't the embargo the problem was communist and now that problem starts to get solved even if the embargo isn't lifted:

"But what has caught the attention of experts tracking the numbers is that, unlike in previous years when Alimport, a Cuban government company, did most of the importing of chicken, soybean or corn, the list of exports now includes unexpected products: organic coffee, cheese, coffee creamers, ice cream, chocolate, cookies, pastries, potato and corn chips, spices, popcorn, peanut butter, maple syrup and many others that are going to the private sector."

The Cuban government didn't think the people needed spices or chocolate or cookies, so they didn't import any of that. you can see how this hurts the ability to trade more than an embargo from a single country.

https://www.miamiherald.com/news/nation-world/world/americas...

Cuba has trade with all of the rest of Latin America. A ship just needs to deliver goods to any other country in the region - which they'd presumably do in the normal course of international trade - then someone takes whatever to Cuba.

It's a minor inconvenience that's trivially worked around.

Cuba has some highlights which it can use to get some international prestige, but otherwise ...

In comparison to today's Cuba, the 1990s Eastern Europe was a fun and prosperous place. (got to enjoy both)

Sometimes i wonder if cuba would collapse if usa ended the embargo.

Having an external enemy you can legit say is treating you unfairly is one hell of a unifying force.

That’s not how history works

It's how things can work going forward

You gotta give them 70 years before evaluation tho.

Cuba wont fail if the embargo ended today, they are already moving to a capitalist economy like China did. Started 2021.

https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2023/7/19/as-cubas-private...

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