No we wouldn't. If these hypothetical people are that close to the edge where 10 grams of sugar and 70 calories would do this, they'd develop the diseases anyway. So the number would be the same.
That rough calculation won't be highly accurate for a number of reasons, but you could halve it and it still is very bad, thus it goes to show how easily fat can accumulate once maintenance calories are breached. Take care of the pennies and the pounds add up. Same goes for calories.