The hedgehog/fox classification isn't mine, it is Philip Tetlock's. As is the data about pundits showing what the outcome is. See https://mgmt.wharton.upenn.edu/profile/tetlock/.

But I agree that it is not a perfect distinction. For example, Malcolm Gladwell writes on such a variety of things and viewpoints that he can't be a hedgehog. But he pursues a good story over what what is true, and therefore isn't very reliable. By contrast Nate Silver really likes to go to his statistics toolset. But I would call him a fox.

However I think there is something to Tetlock's division. And I think my theory connecting certainty to lacking intellectual integrity has a lot to do with it.