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Comment by vsareto | Hacker News Reader

I just don't see it mattering long-term. We bounced back from the dotcom crash to even higher levels. Same with other downturns. The importance of tech hasn't declined any. There are plenty of tech companies to find good jobs at that you can afford to carry a grudge, while companies have plenty of people to hire from still.

If some don't return, they'll relax hiring requirements until they're filled. Hiring requirements from top companies have a lot of room to relax - easier questions, less interview rounds, etc.

Maybe this time is different with higher interest rates?

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The world hasn't become less technologically dependent. Software isn't easy to write and even if LLMs make it more approachable for everyone, there is still so much digitization yet to come that there will not be less demand for software. The biggest question is can you afford to write software on what you can bring in if you're working at a body shop?

Software touches every single interaction anyone has in the world anywhere unless they live in some of the very, very few subsistence cultures still in existence. Some people may use less modern tools but even selling grain or fruits you grew will likely still need some kind of software and some kind of technology and touch markets in international places. The world is no longer local.

Maybe it's different this time. I don't think so. Interactions will be changed. Habits will be reconfigured. Software is not going away or getting easier. LLMs may make it easier to crank out some rote CRUD app but they still cannot replace reason, interpretation, or the development cycle.

> The world hasn't become less technologically dependent. Software isn't easy to write and even if LLMs make it more approachable for everyone, there is still so much digitization yet to come that there will not be less demand for software.

I’m old enough to have suffered through .com and the whole “outsourcing will take our jobs”. LLMs aren’t nearly as useful as on offshore junior engineer in a 12 hour different timezone.

> Maybe this time is different with higher interest rates?

Absolutely. Startups are a low interest rate phenomenon. With high interest rates, investors become a lot more selective. Fewer reasons to risk money on startups when the government is paying out a nice return. The higher the interest, the harder it is to get credit, therefore there'll be less money circulating which puts the brakes on inflation but also slows down the economy given that easy credit is one of the drivers of exponential growth.

Startups are not a low interest rate phenomenon. I bet the average small business would be considered a startup in terms of revenue, potential growth and employee headcount.

What is a low interest rate phenomenon is the unicorn growth strategy and dump trucks full of cash going in to stupid businesses that don't really have a path toward solvency but have really nice marketing.

> the average small business

Will also be impacted due to higher interest rates on their credit lines. Perhaps not as much but still.

> dump trucks full of cash going in to stupid businesses that don't really have a path toward solvency but have really nice marketing

That's what I meant by startups though. Startups that aren't doing that are just regular small businesses.

Though in the case of dot-bomb a fair number of people left the industry and stayed left or at least switched out of SV-type company space. People need to eat and once many switch tracks they may not switch back—especially if they move.

And a fresh wave of undergrads will take their place. CS programs have ramped way up though and will probably over saturate the market.

Except we'll not always get those undergrads ... When most of the stories are about layoffs, we won't get any more majors, but it takes ~5 years to start (not that many people will change majors).

Well, they will need to major in something--assuming they want to get a degree. It's not clear that hiring (and pay) in other engineering fields is necessarily a whole lot better, even today. And, while I don't think there's anything especially wrong with majoring in English or history, it's also not necessarily a better path if you can handle and at least somewhat enjoy CS.

How much can they relax the requirements, and what effects would it have on their products?

Alternatively, how much more they'd have to pay to get the same quality of people? I'd assume it's close to 20% more, which should be significant

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