This puzzle is really starting to fit together nicely but SO FRUSTRATING that I still can’t tell whether it’s an image of Skynet or Big Brother.
Perhaps if I add one more piece…
Perhaps if I add one more piece…
Radar doesn't work that well since the RCS of these craft are so small and the radar systems have gate filters that exclude slow moving aircraft. If you tweak this lower, then you end up with a far shorter range with a lot more noise. And if you broadcast too much, you end up eating a KH-58. It's not a trivial problem to solve. Eventually things like better acoustic and vision sensor processing will help.
Despite the US wanting to ignore the impact of these drones, they really are a game changer. Cheap, distributed ISR via drones is invaluable. And imagine in a few years when the control systems use frequency hopping etc. I'm also envisioning a drone controlled via fiber optic cable. It won't be able to go far, but it can go high and act as a spotter, limited only by its cameras. It won't be jammable, nor limited by bandwidth. Kind of like how balloons were used in the Civil War and WW1 to adjust artillery fire. And if the invasion of Ukraine has shown anything at all, it's that if you get spotted, you die.
EW has been brought up a few times now in this thread. I know both side have been able to defeat UAVs with EW on occasion during this conflict. However, I also know that the Russians have lost a lot of costly EW gear to Ukraine: EW is inherently vulnerable because EW lights up the world with RF signatures that get targeted. Also, despite the large amount of EW gear that Russia has employed, they lose lots of tanks, IFVs and men to hobby grade drones every day. Russian EW hasn't been able to stop that.
So I question EW and whether it can really deliver against systems that rely on RF. Then, when you get to fully autonomous systems that don't rely on RF at all, I write EW off as next to pointless.
Russia was terrible at almost all phases of the invasion during the first year, but has really buttoned down in two areas; AD and EW. Russia has been a leader in EW for a long time and is slowly responding.
EW can't be everywhere though, and the smaller drones can avoid it in some situations since it's line of sight.
Also, don't mistake EW as just jamming. Sometimes it's taking over the control channel for a drone, or something even more esoteric like microwaves that fry the systems.
The US has been involved in one proxy war after another with Russia for decades. It’s just standard US foreign policy, and it simply can’t be denied - US ISR is providing actual strike targeting information.
Regardless, it’s just more of the same. See: Vietnam, Ethiopia/Somalia, Afghanistan, and half a dozen others.
Proxy wars are just the way that wars are going to be fought between peer/near-peer powers, because a full blown confrontation risks global catastrophe.
Ukraine was just foolish enough to sign up for the role of “US’s cannon fodder” in the never ending US-Russia war.
When - not if - when, China ends up getting involved, we will likely see a shift from a unipolar world to a multipolar world and the end of US hegemony and European colonialism.
I’m sure I’ll get flagged for going against the Russia bad US good narrative though.
I think you will find its Russia who invaded, and Russia alone is the one who decided this.
No one else did, everyone else wanted peace, Russia alone wants war.