there is already a very good theory. see this interview with an expert from Yale: https://youtu.be/CSVFpval4Dw?si=oelutbqzOGcpI8gm

tldr: garbage data into the model, garbage out.

Detailed summary from interview: • only 1 hurricane hunter flight was done into this storm. • mexican hurricanes just don’t get as much reporting coverage (historically). For example for atlantic hurricanes, NOAA hurricane hunter airplanes have tail doppler radar, which provides good data to feed into the model. • without detailed doppler radar, they had to fallback to satellite measurements. • Mexico doesn’t have ground based radar coverage at all, like the US coast does.