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Comment by jonhohle | Hacker News Reader

As others have pointed out, inflation is gamed. We’re paying 50+% higher prices on food, 100% more for fuel, 200% more in mortgage interest than two years ago, for example, but no inflation print has ever reflected that.

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How is it gamed? Can you show your receipt from a year ago where your food bill was that much less?

CPI does include food, fuel, and housing costs (though housing lags very significantly for a few reasons).

> How is it gamed?

The totally subjective hedonic quality adjustment (sure food is more expensive but iPads have more ram!), also this knife only ever seems to cut one way, enshittification doesn't have a inflationary effect like you would expect.

Owner imputed rent as opposed to looking at what consumers actually pay.

The basket of goods is unrealistic, most households don't have teams of economists putting their shopping list together in order to maximally limit inflation.

There is owner imputed rent and rent. It’s two separate categories. Owner imputed rent is meant to capture the implied rent that home owners pay themselves. The old method used interest costs, which historically didn’t do a good job because if you lock in a 30-year mortgage rate then you have no inflation if rates rise.

You don’t know what you’re talking about.

>The totally subjective hedonic quality adjustment (sure food is more expensive but iPads have more ram!), also this knife only ever seems to cut one way, enshittification doesn't have a inflationary effect like you would expect.

Quality adjustment is only active for a few basket items, and their contribution to the overall cpi is minimal. All the extra food inflation that's supposedly happening isn't being held back by faster iPads.

>Owner imputed rent as opposed to looking at what consumers actually pay.

Most Americans are homeowners. For them, they don't pay any rent. Pretending that they pay market rent has no relation to what their actual expenses are. How do you propose we capture their expenses?

>The basket of goods is unrealistic, most households don't have teams of economists putting their shopping list together in order to maximally limit inflation.

Here's the basket the bls uses: https://www.bls.gov/cpi/tables/relative-importance/2022.htm

What specific parts do you think is "unrealistic", and what values would you use instead?

I said two years ago, but yes, in fact I do have receipts from that period. Here's the breakdown between a combination of receipts from October 26th & 30th of 2021 vs. the prices today:

                                               2021    2023    increase
     -----------------------------------------+-------+-------+--------
     Breaded Fillets 50 oz.                   | 5.46  | 14.48 | 165.2% 
     Polska Kielbasa Smoked Sausage, 14 oz    | 3.48  | 3.98  | 14.4%  
     Goldfish Snack Crackers, 30 oz Carton    | 1.53  | 2.64  | 72.5%  
     Darigold Eggnog, 1 Quart, 32 fl          | 2.61  | 3.37  | 29.1%  
     Mini Pretzel Twists, 16 oz               | 1.98  | 2.24  | 13.1%  
     Cheese Ravioli, Pasta, 25 oz bag         | 2.98  | 4.27  | 43.3%  
     Original Dairy Whipped Topping, 13 oz    | 2.98  | 3.20  | 7.4%   
     Au Gratin Potatoes,  4.7 oz              | 1.18  | 1.68  | 42.4%  
     Organic Reduced Fat 2% Milk, 1 Gallon    | 5.68  | 7.96  | 40.1%  
     Steamable Mixed Vegetables, 12 oz        | 0.64  | 0.98  | 53.1%  
     Honey Maid Graham Crackers, 14.4 oz      | 1.32  | 4.68  | 254.5% 
     Garlic Whole Fresh, 3ct Bag              | 1.38  | 1.88  | 36.2%  
     Fresh Green Bell Pepper, Each            | 0.66  | 0.76  | 15.2%  
     Fresh Whole Yellow Onions, Each          | 0.36  | 0.70  | 94.4%  
     Fresh Whole White Mushrooms, 8 oz        | 1.98  | 2.08  | 5.1%   
     Fresh Organic Grape Tomato, 10 oz        | 1.96  | 2.83  | 44.4%  
     Organic Spring Mix Salad, 5 oz , Fresh   | 2.76  | 2.98  | 8.0%   
     Snapple Peach Tea Drink, 64 fl oz        | 2.18  | 2.28  | 4.6%   
     Greek Plain Nonfat Yogurt, 5.3 oz        | 0.64  | 0.64  | 0.0%   
     Yoplait Original Yogurt Pack, 8 Ct, 6 OZ | 3.98  | 4.94  | 24.1%  
     Tomato Sauce, 8 oz Can                   | 0.32  | 0.48  | 50.0%  
     Petite Diced Tomatoes, 14.5 oz           | 0.64  | 0.96  | 50.0%  
     Dark Red Kidney Beans, 15.5 oz           | 0.62  | 0.82  | 32.3%  
     Saltine Crackers, 16 oz, 4 Count         | 1.02  | 1.74  | 70.6%  
     Buttermilk Pancake Mix, 32 oz Box        | 2.48  | 2.82  | 13.7%  
     Cream Of Chicken Condensed Soup, 10.5 oz | 0.57  | 0.68  | 19.3%  
     "JIFFY" Honey Corn Muffin Mix            | 0.72  | 0.78  | 8.3%   
     -----------------------------------------+-------+-------+-----   
     total                                    | 52.11 | 76.85 | 47.5%

Please excuse the rounding in my earlier comment.

Edit to add: the table above is from Walmart grocery. We buy meat and most fruits and vegetables elsewhere, so except for the frozen fish, this list excludes most protein. If you just eat Costco rotisserie chicken, you would not have noticed a price increase.

PS to the edit: besides removing duplicates the list above is a raw combination of food items on two receipts without exclusions.

I'm actually surprised you are able to draw direct pricing comparisons, it feels like half the products I buy are now 15% smaller portion size while increasing in price.

The milk I had to substitute brands because Walmart no longer sells private label organic milk at our store. Everything else seemed to line up.

It's totally unfair if you're NOT substituting brands.

Compare this: https://www.rabato.com/us/shoprite/weekly-ad/LEipqw

To this: https://www.rabato.com/us/shoprite/weekly-ad/KZiQw3p

You can see if you are not particular about brand, you can actually find CHEAPER items today in some cases.

Overall, yes things are up. But they are not up 50%.

Nice try. I said food costs 50% more and showed where that number came from. Now you're saying I need to reduce the standard of my "basked of goods" to make it fair. Guess what, that's how they come up with inflation numbers, too! Adjust the basket until you get the narrative you want. I had to substitute milk because a) it's a weekly purchase in our house and b) the previously cheapest brand in our area is no longer available, so I chose the next cheapest equivalent.

You asked for receipts, I gave you a literal transcript of my receipts at no cost to you with actual prices that showed a 47.5% increase in our grocery bill over the past two years. I showed you mine, you show me yours. Show me how you're not spending around 50% more than two years ago for equivalent products. Those two receipts are reasonably representative of the things we buy at Walmart and cover most food groups.

We typically buy the cheapest brand, usually private label store brands, except when there is a noticeable difference in quality. I took many brands off for brevity, but 12 of the 28 were Walmart brands and 5 were commodity vegetables. If a local chain grocer has a better price, we buy it there, but typically a week's worth of groceries cannot be found by just buying weekly specials.

The very reason I know where my receipts are and could make the list so quickly was because we are ruthless about keeping cost-of-living low, track prices religiously, and avoid spending money on higher priced equivalents within reasonable limits (there might be a cheaper price on widget foo across town, but if the transportation cost to get it is higher, then I cannot realize the cheaper price).

I could reduce my standards even further and replace all of it with boxed macaroni[0], but even that has increased 35% in the last 19 months[1] (the earliest price I can find, about 44% increase extrapolated to 24 months). (Target's store brand Mac & Cheese is only up 18%, but still more expensive than Walmart.)

0 - https://www.walmart.com/ip/Walmart-Great-Value-Original-Maca... 1 - https://web.archive.org/web/20220325010216/https://www.walma...

> Now you're saying I need to reduce the standard of my "basked of goods" to make it fair.

No, I'm saying you need to compare like items, not specific brands. Don't misrepresent what I'm saying, it is rude.

Great data...thank you

It's good for a specific reason: you can see if this person did not buy the worst 6-7 items (or changed brands, you can find similar items for similar to 2021 prices today), their increase in grocery spending would have only been about 20%. That's still a lot, but it isn't 50%.

Walmart still sells organic milk for $5.98. You can get 8 packs of yogurt for $4 still. I can't find something for his breaded fish, but I guess that's not a luxury item. :(

Walmart claims to sell organic milk for $5.98, but it's been unavailable in our area since April. It was $5.68 at that time the last time we could buy it (April 6th, 2023). We can get Shamrock Farms for $5.78/96oz ($7.70/gallon, -26¢ from the table above), which would bring the total increase to 47.0%.

I can't find a cheaper equivalent for the frozen fillets[0]. There are differently breaded fillets for cheaper (23.8¢/oz vs 29¢/oz, wheat vs. corn), but they are still around 120% more than we paid for the ones we like in 2021. If I substitute those for this particular example receipt, the increase is _only_ 42.7%.

My point wasn't that I can't reduce my standard of living to live more cheaply. My point was that food prices have risen dramatically in the past two years. If I had already started on the cheapest foods and had nowhere lower to go, my prices would still have risen by approximately the same amount.

For fun, however, I went through and replaced each item with the cheapest equivalent at Walmart, including cases (like the fillets) where I would consider a decrease in my quality of life. That still leaves me at 32.8% increase in cost. And I'm eating soggy fillets, yogurt that tastes like aspartame, have to doll up my cornbread with extra ingredients, etc., etc.

If your cost of food has only gone up 20% since 2021, consider yourself lucky. That certainly isn't the case in our area. CPI says it's only gone up 14.3% in that same time period.

Don't buy frozen fillets if they cost too much. Buy chicken, or whatever.

I'm not saying you need to eat worse food, I'm saying prices of things fluctuate, and not everyone's grocery bill looks like yours. Being realistic, if you're upset that yogurt has gone up so much, don't buy it. Or, do buy it, but realize that not everything has gone up 35%. It's not true. 15-20% is the average.

I said prices went up, you say buy something else to keep the costs the same. Those are not equivalent. Even if I bought differently, I could not keep them the same (as commented elsewhere), and changing brands or products to keep costs the same does not prove that costs haven't risen. I'm missing the point you're trying to make. I showed the numbers. Not everything went up, some things went up a lot. The average price of my bill has gone up 47.5%. Show me a comprehensive receipt that hasn't.

Do the same with mortgages. In October 2021 a 15-year fixed rate mortgage was 2.55%. Right now it's 7.59%. What product can I replace if I need to move today vs. then? I'd have to go back one month to get 100% increase for gas, but September 2021 gas was 2.36 vs. 4.61 average September 2023, 95% change. What can I substitute for fuel?

I don't know what you want me to say, sorry. Good luck to you.

Have you been to a restaurant lately? 50% increase is not an exaggeration.

Food? So many items are insane. Costco popcorn. I buy that all the time for my kids. Pre-pandemic it was about $9 (maybe 10). Now it's $16/17.

Bag of chips? $5-6 for less

My healthcare premiums went up 20% last year- I don't even want to look what it's going to cost next year.

>CPI does include food, fuel, and housing costs

You can say that all you want, but however they are doing it just doesn't translate to reality for most people.

Costco almost isn't a fair way to compare prices because they have intentionally been losing margin and raising prices as slowly as possible to retain customers.

eyeroll I give you a direct example of a 50% price increase and you just blah blah with some irrelevant bs

Ok, then let's look at my local Safeway. Shit is OUTRAGEOUS. If you don't think groceries haven't gone up 30/40/50% then apparently you don't look at any prices while you shop.

Restaurants are outrageous but you don't need to eat out.

Look here: https://www.rabato.com/us/shoprite/weekly-ad/LEipqw

And here: https://www.rabato.com/us/shoprite/weekly-ad/KZiQw3p

Things are not 50%. Some items, some brands, yes. But you can always cherry-pick anything, always.

Chicken is actually CHEAPER today. Crazy (but that was covid supply chain issues I guess, so now I'm cherry-picking)

Costco’s profit margins have been going up (although by very small amounts) for many years.

https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/COST/costco/profit...

Costco doesn’t believe in lossleaders AND they have a policy of limiting their profit margins to a fixed percentage. So it seems like the would be perfect for comparisons.

I get it: one item goes up by 50%, it seems like everything does, but it isn't true.

Buy other popcorn. Or buy a different snack. That is how things work.

Saying "inflation is gamed" because of what you observe in your own life isn't exactly a convincing argument.

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