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Comment by jghn | Hacker News Reader

> The numbers I see coming out about the state of the economy just seem more and more out of sync with reality on the ground.

What are those numbers?

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Inflation still rampant, unaffordable cars, unaffordable homes, salaries growing slower than inflation. In other words, things that don't affect the rich (that's why the numerical growth in GDP), but are essential for the middle class (the majority).

Inflation is way down, salaries have been growing faster than inflation all year, unemployment is very low, car prices have been dropping since late 2022, and home prices are finally starting to decline.

So when you talk about numbers “you see coming out” you’re at least a year out of date.

I’m assuming you’re going to just start saying “the numbers aren’t real man”. But in that case why talk about the “numbers you see coming out”.

Core Inflation is down but that doesn’t account for food or energy, which are the two biggest complaints people have. Id like to see your proof that housing prices are going down, that’s news to me.

> I’m assuming you’re going to just start saying “the numbers aren’t real man”.

Nice way to prove you are arguing in partisan favor and not discussing anything in good faith.

No it’s a nice way of heading off what I guarantee was going to be the response. There is literally nothing you can say to sway the “inflation numbers aren’t real crowd” in the same way you can’t argue with a conspiracy theorist. I don’t care about partisanship. I think the economy would be in roughly the same state it’s in regardless of which party won most recently.

Core inflation doesn’t include housing and fuel. But fuel is down 10% from its peak last year and the median home price in July 2023 was 2% below the median price in July 2022.

Inflation is going down, wages are going up.

You can’t argue that “the numbers coming out” are showing the opposite because they aren’t.

But that person didn’t say inflation numbers aren’t real. That is a strawman you’re attacking.

It’s not a strawman. The person I was responding to has been all over the thread saying official inflation numbers are designed to be misleading.

People don't think of inflation quarter to quarter or even FY to FY. They think of it in terms of what they are calibrated to think normal prices are. For most people that's going to be pre-pandemic. Since prices have not returned to pre-pandemic levels the economy is bad. Especially so since their wages haven't gone up comparably to match.

This is why the numbers are largely useless at gauging public sentiment. Nobody cares that this quarter the rate of inflation has slowed. They care that chicken breasts cost double what it should. They care that a Ford Mustang GT can cost $50k when they were pretty sure they were $30k. They care that fast food costs as much as a sit down restaraunt should and the sit down costs as much as a nice one should.

Now you can all explain that with numbers and reports but sentiment doesn't care about that. Public opinion is an inherently irrational thing. But it is still incredibly important because elections are decided by it. It doesn't matter if GDP is positive and inflation is good right now if everyone thinks we are in a recession and the prices of everything are too damn high. You will get voted out. I'm not sure why this is a hard concept to grasp.

> prices have not returned to pre-pandemic levels

Are you saying people are expecting CPI deflation? I don't think that's accurate, and it's also definitely not gonna happen.

Consciously? No. Like I said, public sentiment doesn't work that way. People don't want deflation. They want reasonable prices. Its not rational. The only sensible way to achieve that is to get wages increasing so the relative cost of living goes back down.

The health food bowl I like to get for lunch was $11 and is now $15

A chipotle burrito with carne asada steak and guac is now $17

Amy’s frozen pizza was $6.99 and is now $10 (don’t buy it any more, I’ll be dammed if I spend 10 bucks on frozen pizza)

I looked up buying a Chipolte Carne Asada Steak and Guac, after tax it was $15. FWIW, I normally get chicken no guac, I think was like $8 or so after tax now its $9.31 after tax.

I looked up the price for Amy's Vegan Supreme pizza at my local Kroger, in-stock for $7.99. No sales tax on that item, so just that price.

Must be where you live

> It doesn't matter if GDP is positive and inflation is good right now if everyone thinks we are in a recession and the prices of everything are too damn high. You will get voted out. I'm not sure why this is a hard concept to grasp.

Because they're two different concepts. Public sentiment is generally a lagging indicator on the economy. People will think we're still in a high even after the economy has started to falter. And people will still think times are bad even after the economy starts to come back.

You are correct that public sentiment is on what people vote. That doesn't mean they are accurately assessing the economy.

I’m not talking about public sentiment. I’m responding to someone who was talking about “the numbers they are seeing coming out”. When someone responded what numbers, they listed the things I rebutted.

Someone’s belief was causing them to invent numbers coming out to justify that belief.

I said numbers, not headlines. What are the data that show the economy is otherwise bad?

EDIT: I don't necessarily disagree, but it's important to not let general sentiment get in the way. Sentiment is often a lagging indicator.

Just curious, do you expect prices to return to pre-pandemic levels? If so, how do you think that will happen? Disinflation is very different from deflation, and nobody should be rooting for deflation.

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