Comment by addy34 | Hacker News Reader

Comment by addy34 | Hacker News Reader

For anyone interested in the the details, China Talk released a podcast last week on the updated export controls, which discussed the enormous quantity of ASML machinery purchased by China in the leadup to the regs being tightened [1].

From Bloomberg:

"China accounted for 46% of ASML's sales in the third quarter, compared to 24% in the previous quarter and 8% in January to March."

[1] https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/emergency-pod-export-c...

[1] https://podcasts.google.com/feed/aHR0cHM6Ly9jaGluYWVjb250YWx...

> China accounted for 46% of ASML's sales in the third quarter

Any idea on how many that represents? They don't produce like thousands per year, correct?

It's all in ASML's 3Q IR presentation, "Net system sales breakdown (Quarterly)"- Q3'23 Net system sales €5,308 million,

Sales in lithography units:

  11 EUV, 32 Arfi, 9 ArFdry, 44 KrF, 16 i-Line.

China has no access to EUV; no sales breakdown by model.

Isn't ASML booked months/years in advance just as much as TSCM?

Can they really order that much within months?

This has been going on for a while and China had plenty of time to place orders ahead:

  "Wennink tells CNBC that the average lead time of ASML's machines is roughly a year and a half to two years and that “when you look at the relatively short expectations… of a potential recession, then customers are of course not canceling any orders because they could find themselves in the back of the queue when this" ...Jan 25, 2023

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